Buying Back Money Lines?

terpkeg · Apr 10, 2008

For the more experienced bettors, when do you find it wise to buy back on a money line? If you are gaurenteed profit on the game do you take it? Do you calculate the % of increase in your bank roll per play and if it goes over that # take it?
For example: took KC at +145, can get Yanks now at -138 middle leaves about a .025u profit. Is this worth it in the long haul?

bigtendominator · Apr 10, 2008

terpkeg said:
For the more experienced bettors, when do you find it wise to buy back on a money line? If you are gaurenteed profit on the game do you take it? Do you calculate the % of increase in your bank roll per play and if it goes over that # take it?
For example: took KC at +145, can get Yanks now at -138 middle leaves about a .025u profit. Is this worth it in the long haul?

It is probably not worth it, but if you were to have wagered 500 or more, I think I would be worth it. You are basically betting 0 to win 7. It depends on how much you like KC. If you really like them, I wouldn't do it. Again you can't go wrong with guaranteed money, even if it is only 7. The advantage is if NYY wins, then you have lost 0.

You risked 100 to win 145.

Now risking 138 to win 100.

Doug · Apr 10, 2008

only if you intentionally overbet it, forecasting the move planning to sell some back.

or if:

for some reason you no longer like your side.

otherwise keep it.

terpkeg · Apr 10, 2008

i was thinking more along the line of taking the free 2.50, not taking the Bonus Bet. i dont think it should matter how much you have on the game if you are using strict money management. say 1% of your roll per play, it is all relative, doesnt matter if you have 500 or 5.

i havnt been a disiplined gambler long enough to know if my average mlb play nets over .025% of my bank roll making this profitable.

but has anyone actually used great MM over years of gaming. what should a successful handicapper excpect to return per play?

if i have a % or unit amount I should realisticly be expecting to return per play, then i should know the cutoff of where to buy back where not too.

but then you have to take into consideration when you are on the same side as a steap line movement, do the results keep up with the averages, or are they skewed against or with the line move.

if they are skewed against the move, should be buying back more often; if against, less.

see where i am coming from?

Doug · Apr 10, 2008

you assume steam is more often correct than not, I'd keep the bet myself, you liked it enough to bet it in the first place.

some follow steam, others fade it. I'd at least keep a portion of the bet.

Doug · Apr 10, 2008

No opinion on the side of this game, but I bet over 9 -131

terpkeg · Apr 10, 2008

thanks for the input doug. in long run i would assume the bet back not profitable with only .025u payout. anyway, wound up betting the game back bc didnt really like the royals. playing an underdog system which the royals came up in, but just couldnt take royals to complete the sweep of yanks. try to play the system by the book, but have been throwing my judgment in as well.

Woody0 · Apr 10, 2008

terpkeg said:
i havnt been a disiplined gambler long enough to know if my average mlb play nets over .025% of my bank roll making this profitable.

You shouldn't buy back for such a small return if you were happy with your original bet.

0.025% ROI is a pretty miserable return as you should be able to get at least 100X times better, i.e 2.5% ROI, if you are reasonably successful.

terpkeg · Apr 10, 2008

Woody0 said:
You shouldn't buy back for such a small return if you were happy with your original bet.

0.025% ROI is a pretty miserable return as you should be able to get at least 100X times better, i.e 2.5% ROI, if you are reasonably successful.

makes sense, not sure if i will be resonably successful but successful or not I will be disiplined. i just cant take the ups and downs of betting without a bankroll. the ups are great, the downs suck, but more importantly the stress is not worth it.

Doug · Apr 11, 2008

if the bank is short, how much could you possibly make selling back ?

You also pay sorta double vig selling back unless its a Matchbook bet.

MrJ · Apr 11, 2008

The only time to hedge for a profitable bettor (buy back) is if they no longer like their original position (which is unlikely given the market moving with them) or if they overbet their original position. However, since you don't know if you're profitable it's probably best to take the hedge, unless you usually find yourself in this position (i.e. line moves go your way more often than not).

some follow steam, others fade it

Some do both, and it should be noted that either can be right in many line moves.

Woody0 · Apr 11, 2008

Mr J said:
The only time to hedge for a profitable bettor (buy back) is if they no longer like their original position (which is unlikely given the market moving with them) or if they overbet their original position.

Today I overbet the Yankees. I often do this in a situation where:

1. I think the team will be ahead at some point in the game.
2. I can hedge "in play" when the other team will go at a good price, even at books that charge a 40 cent "in play" line.

Doug · Apr 11, 2008

What places have the in play option ?

I know Matchbook has some games

Woody0 · Apr 11, 2008

Doug, Bet365 has a lot of in play action including baseball, usually 4-6 games daily (I know you can't use it but I can). Today I bought back Boston at +330 which just protects against 9th inning tragedy.

Mr.Smith · Apr 11, 2008

giving away wining bets to "hedge" them is foolish. Im sure your book will thank you

Woody0 · Apr 12, 2008

Mr. Smith said:
giving away wining bets to "hedge" them is foolish. Im sure your book will thank you

Yes they do. They allow me to continue playing there for more than $3.65.

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