Fade Roy Oswalt Tonight

HansGruber · Apr 11, 2008

Roy's just not the same: he's much more hittable (21 hits in 12 innings!) and everybody is talking about how he's lost mph on the fastball and isn't throwing the curve as much. The numbers bear that out: a 6 ERA and in his last game he struck out ZERO batters. Now he's got the Marlins coming in who are raking: 2nd in total bases, 2nd in OPS, and 2nd in slugging. And oh yeah, they just got Hermida back into the lineup.

I think I'm going to play this as a Marlin TT over 4: +100 at thegreek. The Houston bullpen is getting rocked lately which will help. I'll probably put some on the FL ML (+160), but Nolasco scares me a little. The Houston lineup is floundering though (14th in the NL is OPS) and I could totally see them getting shut down.

GL all. :103631605

Twisted · Apr 11, 2008

Roy pitches a gem tonight, tread lightly.

GL

:toast:

Uno · Apr 11, 2008

it is early yet.

TonyMar · Apr 11, 2008

I played the Marlins last night at +170...

Not a huge play, just a couple of units.

He did not look right vs the Cubs...AND...when Oswalt was unable to strike out a single Cub...the whole thing seemed odd...cannot recall the last time Oswalt started a game and did not record a single K...

Then reading that he felt some "twinge" in his arm during that game in Chicago...well I decided to take a shot against him tonight.

He may indeed be fine...but it was a nice price on a hot hitting club... facing a pitcher that has gotten hit pretty good in his 1st two starts.

elvis1 · Apr 11, 2008

do ya think oswalt is gettig like kenny rogers man ??

HansGruber · Apr 11, 2008

Oswalt's still a stud, but I just think there's some value there considering the way he's been going and the way the Marlins have been hitting. I'm an Oswalt fan and I wouldn't be surprised to see him straighten out tonight, but he hasn't looked right lately.

Budworth22 · Apr 11, 2008

Bad Move...

THT Pitching

<table class="pv_table" summary="Individual player stats table"><tbody><tr> <th class="Center">Year</th><th class="Center">Tm</th><th class="Center">Lg</th><th class="Center">*PRC</th><th class="Center">RA</th><th class="Center">FIP</th><th class="Center">FIP-ERA</th><th class="Center">xFIP</th><th class="Center">DER</th><th class="Center">LD%</th><th class="Center">GB%</th><th class="Center">IF/F</th><th class="Center">K/G</th><th class="Center">BB/G</th><th class="Center">HR/G</th><th class="Center">*HR/F</th><th class="Center">P/PA</th><th class="Center">LOB%</th></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2004</td><td class="Center">HOU</td><td class="Center">NL</td><td class="Center">116</td><td class="Center">3.80</td><td class="Center">3.00</td><td class="Center">-0.49</td><td class="Center">3.73</td><td class="Center">.686</td><td class="Center">22.5%</td><td class="Center">42.5%</td><td class="Center">17.2%</td><td class="Center">8.1</td><td class="Center">2.4</td><td class="Center">0.67</td><td class="Center">8.3%</td><td class="Center">3.6</td><td class="Center">73.0%</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2005</td><td class="Center">HOU</td><td class="Center">NL</td><td class="Center">121</td><td class="Center">3.17</td><td class="Center">3.08</td><td class="Center">0.14</td><td class="Center">3.56</td><td class="Center">.698</td><td class="Center">21.8%</td><td class="Center">49.1%</td><td class="Center">9.2%</td><td class="Center">7.0</td><td class="Center">1.8</td><td class="Center">0.69</td><td class="Center">8.8%</td><td class="Center">3.6</td><td class="Center">78.2%</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2006</td><td class="Center">HOU</td><td class="Center">NL</td><td class="Center">128</td><td class="Center">3.10</td><td class="Center">3.32</td><td class="Center">0.34</td><td class="Center">3.75</td><td class="Center">.698</td><td class="Center">19.9%</td><td class="Center">48.8%</td><td class="Center">14.4%</td><td class="Center">7.2</td><td class="Center">1.6</td><td class="Center">0.78</td><td class="Center">9.9%</td><td class="Center">3.6</td><td class="Center">78.7%</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2007</td><td class="Center">HOU</td><td class="Center">NL</td><td class="Center">110</td><td class="Center">3.40</td><td class="Center">3.54</td><td class="Center">0.35</td><td class="Center">4.08</td><td class="Center">.693</td><td class="Center">16.0%</td><td class="Center">53.0%</td><td class="Center">10.5%</td><td class="Center">6.6</td><td class="Center">2.6</td><td class="Center">0.60</td><td class="Center">7.5%</td><td class="Center">3.6</td><td class="Center">77.5%</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2008</td><td class="Center">HOU</td><td class="Center">NL</td><td class="Center">3</td><td class="Center">6.75</td><td class="Center">3.50</td><td class="Center">-2.50</td><td class="Center">3.79</td><td class="Center">.583</td><td class="Center">25.0%</td><td class="Center">50.0%</td><td class="Center">58.3%</td><td class="Center">4.1</td><td class="Center">1.4</td><td class="Center">0.68</td><td class="Center">19.9%</td><td class="Center">3.6</td><td class="Center">64.8%</td></tr></tbody></table>

All of his performance is in line with past years.

HansGruber · Apr 11, 2008

His hit% is very high now - 40% compared to the league avg. of 30% which would bode well for him since that's abnormal and will come back down. What's troubling is that he's not giving up seeing eye singles: he's given up the 3rd most "bases" of all pitchers, and an opposing slugging % of .574 with 5 doubles a triple and a dinger in 11 innings. No k's last game is troubling too.

Watch him deal tonight.:Carcajada:

GL

barman · Apr 11, 2008

Sorry I missed this thread earlier today.

Oswalt is certainly a key tonight, but the more prevailing angles relate to Florida just being in a couple of really bad spots for them actuarially.

In the past three seasons, they've only had eight occasions where they entered an Away game with a 3 game Away win streak. They lost in seven of those with six of the losses by 2+ runs.

They're also in the role of playing Away After Scoring 13+ runs in previous two Away games. Past 2+ seasons that's happened 15 times for them and they lost the subsequent game 11 times with seven of those losses by 2+ runs.

I used HOU ml in a 2teamer and HOU -1.5 straight.

0-0 through one inning. BOL to us all for an enjoyable contest.

jammanxc · Apr 11, 2008

oswalt is the only guy the Astros can count on this year :O

2PLAYSMAX · Apr 11, 2008

TonyMar · Apr 11, 2008

Third start in-a-row...and tonight...

Oswalt is getting rake'd to the n-th degree... 4 HR's allowed...

8 earned runs in less than 4 innings...

Believe I was correct...either something is physically wrong...or he has a dead arm...

8-3 Marlins

TonyMar · Apr 11, 2008

Budworth22 said:
Bad Move...

THT Pitching

<TABLE class=pv_table summary="Individual player stats table"><TBODY><TR><TH class=Center>Year</TH><TH class=Center>Tm</TH><TH class=Center>Lg</TH><TH class=Center>*PRC</TH><TH class=Center>RA</TH><TH class=Center>FIP</TH><TH class=Center>FIP-ERA</TH><TH class=Center>xFIP</TH><TH class=Center>DER</TH><TH class=Center>LD%</TH><TH class=Center>GB%</TH><TH class=Center>IF/F</TH><TH class=Center>K/G</TH><TH class=Center>BB/G</TH><TH class=Center>HR/G</TH><TH class=Center>*HR/F</TH><TH class=Center>P/PA</TH><TH class=Center>LOB%</TH></TR><TR><TD class=Center>2004</TD><TD class=Center>HOU</TD><TD class=Center>NL</TD><TD class=Center>116</TD><TD class=Center>3.80</TD><TD class=Center>3.00</TD><TD class=Center>-0.49</TD><TD class=Center>3.73</TD><TD class=Center>.686</TD><TD class=Center>22.5%</TD><TD class=Center>42.5%</TD><TD class=Center>17.2%</TD><TD class=Center>8.1</TD><TD class=Center>2.4</TD><TD class=Center>0.67</TD><TD class=Center>8.3%</TD><TD class=Center>3.6</TD><TD class=Center>73.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Center>2005</TD><TD class=Center>HOU</TD><TD class=Center>NL</TD><TD class=Center>121</TD><TD class=Center>3.17</TD><TD class=Center>3.08</TD><TD class=Center>0.14</TD><TD class=Center>3.56</TD><TD class=Center>.698</TD><TD class=Center>21.8%</TD><TD class=Center>49.1%</TD><TD class=Center>9.2%</TD><TD class=Center>7.0</TD><TD class=Center>1.8</TD><TD class=Center>0.69</TD><TD class=Center>8.8%</TD><TD class=Center>3.6</TD><TD class=Center>78.2%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Center>2006</TD><TD class=Center>HOU</TD><TD class=Center>NL</TD><TD class=Center>128</TD><TD class=Center>3.10</TD><TD class=Center>3.32</TD><TD class=Center>0.34</TD><TD class=Center>3.75</TD><TD class=Center>.698</TD><TD class=Center>19.9%</TD><TD class=Center>48.8%</TD><TD class=Center>14.4%</TD><TD class=Center>7.2</TD><TD class=Center>1.6</TD><TD class=Center>0.78</TD><TD class=Center>9.9%</TD><TD class=Center>3.6</TD><TD class=Center>78.7%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Center>2007</TD><TD class=Center>HOU</TD><TD class=Center>NL</TD><TD class=Center>110</TD><TD class=Center>3.40</TD><TD class=Center>3.54</TD><TD class=Center>0.35</TD><TD class=Center>4.08</TD><TD class=Center>.693</TD><TD class=Center>16.0%</TD><TD class=Center>53.0%</TD><TD class=Center>10.5%</TD><TD class=Center>6.6</TD><TD class=Center>2.6</TD><TD class=Center>0.60</TD><TD class=Center>7.5%</TD><TD class=Center>3.6</TD><TD class=Center>77.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Center>2008</TD><TD class=Center>HOU</TD><TD class=Center>NL</TD><TD class=Center>3</TD><TD class=Center>6.75</TD><TD class=Center>3.50</TD><TD class=Center>-2.50</TD><TD class=Center>3.79</TD><TD class=Center>.583</TD><TD class=Center>25.0%</TD><TD class=Center>50.0%</TD><TD class=Center>58.3%</TD><TD class=Center>4.1</TD><TD class=Center>1.4</TD><TD class=Center>0.68</TD><TD class=Center>19.9%</TD><TD class=Center>3.6</TD><TD class=Center>64.8%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

All of his performance is in line with past years.

Lots of baseball left...but I like my play on Florida tonight...irregardless of this chart.

Gator627 · Apr 11, 2008

I took the Marlins +157. I wanted to grab the Over 8.5 but it seemed fishy that the books wouldnt move the number when it was getting pounded. I wish I would have just went with how I felt instead of what I thought the books were thinking.

magillagorilla · Apr 11, 2008

nice call hans.

roy oswalt? wtf?

One of the best pitchers in baseball,what is going on this year.I love threads like this,people notice and watch a guy and give some great info,usually I would never wager against oswalt in any form or fashion.I just wish I had of been on the florida over 4. great call

krk1030 · Apr 11, 2008

Sabathia and Oswalt having problems.

Gator627 · Apr 11, 2008

Hanley Ramirez is a superstar, BTW. He is the best hitting SS in MLB and I am not sure how many people have ever heard of him.

Does anyone think we might be seeing the effects of Roy Oswalt off the juice? He is a pretty small guy but always could bring the heat.... im just saying.

krh7 · Apr 11, 2008

krk1030 said:
Sabathia and Oswalt having problems.

same with the d-train.

sometimes when these guys lose it, it's gone forever. look at barry zito.

cadillacman · Apr 11, 2008

Houston forget how to hit????

no answer for the Marlins??

barman · Apr 11, 2008

Belated Hat Tip to HANS G

This was certainly not Oswalt's night and oh yeah, flush my actuarial heehaw stats down the poop chute because Florida is again RAKING

I'm a closet Marlins fan (second to my DRays allegiance) and don' often bet against them. Serves me right tonight

Fade Roy Oswalt Tonight

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