Why ERA is a useless, deceiving stat

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From ussmariner.com
Edwin Jackson, in his two starts so far, has allowed 18 flyballs. 14 of those 18 flyballs have been infield flies. That’s a 77% IF/F rate. Last year, the major league leader in IF/F rate was Bronson Arroyo - 15.4% of his flyballs were infield flies.

It’s not just Edwin Jackson, either. The league average IF/F rate is 18% in the American League and 13% in the National League. While it’s almost certainly early season random variation, that AL infield fly rate is absurdly high, and is probably one of the main reasons offense is down across the league.

Fausto Carmona has thrown 13 innings, walked 9, and struck out 7 in his two starts so far. He has a 0.69 ERA. A 78% ground ball rate covers a multitude of sins.

The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting .230/.276/.331. That’s a .607 OPS. As a team. Willie Bloomquist’s career OPS is .642, and in his worst season, it was .613. The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting like a slumping Willie Bloomquist. That’s what you get for having a Molina hitting cleanup.
Speaking of the Giants, Jonathan Sanchez has the best strikeout rate in the majors through two starts. In fact, his season line of 10 IP, 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, and 18 K suggest that he’s been one of the more dominating starters in baseball so far. His ERA is 6.30. 6.30! Yet another reason why ERA is useless as any kind of predictor of things to come.

Okay, one more reason ERA is pathetic. Steve Trachsel couldn’t be any less effective if he tried - 12 innings, 6 walks, 3 strikeouts, and a 36% GB rate. He’s not throwing strikes, missing bats, or getting groundballs. He’s doing exactly zero things that lead to sustained success. He has a 6.32 xFIP during the part of the season when team’s aren’t scoring runs. His ERA? 3.00.

The average velocity on Barry Zito’s fastball in 2008 - 82.7 MPH. Zito is teetering on the edge of replacement level, and the Giants are on the hook for $18 million per season. This is the cost of not learning the lesson of the uselessness of ERA.
 

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Thanks for posting this bud,

No problem. This board seems so much dumber this year than in past years, and I am getting frustrated. Generally there is some decent baseball talk going on, but intelligent argument is nowhere to be found this year.
 

RX Capper
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this board is pretty active. way better than the other one across the street
 

Rx. Senior
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No problem. This board seems so much dumber this year than in past years, and I am getting frustrated. Generally there is some decent baseball talk going on, but intelligent argument is nowhere to be found this year.

Surely Chop will let you in on his IM debating society!! :drink:
 
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No problem. This board seems so much dumber this year than in past years, and I am getting frustrated. Generally there is some decent baseball talk going on, but intelligent argument is nowhere to be found this year.


Yeah I know what you mean and I don't even follow baseball that closely and I still know how sad is that. This is the kinda stuff this forum needs.

SBR too.
 

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post some plays or shutup, your ego is out of control.

ERA is not completely useless, it just needs to be put in context/adjusted like every other stat
 

Rx. Senior
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I was around in the Sixties ERA and they said that was great so I dont know, tough call. :drink:
 

Back from the Ban
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I'm taking the under in Anaheim and Seattle. Under 8 -110. Follow fade jump shout.
 

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Edwin Jackson, in his two starts so far, has allowed 18 flyballs. 14 of those 18 flyballs have been infield flies. That’s a 77% IF/F rate. Last year, the major league leader in IF/F rate was Bronson Arroyo - 15.4% of his flyballs were infield flies.

It’s not just Edwin Jackson, either. The league average IF/F rate is 18% in the American League and 13% in the National League. While it’s almost certainly early season random variation, that AL infield fly rate is absurdly high, and is probably one of the main reasons offense is down across the league.

Fausto Carmona has thrown 13 innings, walked 9, and struck out 7 in his two starts so far. He has a 0.69 ERA. A 78% ground ball rate covers a multitude of sins.

The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting .230/.276/.331. That’s a .607 OPS. As a team. Willie Bloomquist’s career OPS is .642, and in his worst season, it was .613. The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting like a slumping Willie Bloomquist. That’s what you get for having a Molina hitting cleanup.
Speaking of the Giants, Jonathan Sanchez has the best strikeout rate in the majors through two starts. In fact, his season line of 10 IP, 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, and 18 K suggest that he’s been one of the more dominating starters in baseball so far. His ERA is 6.30. 6.30! Yet another reason why ERA is useless as any kind of predictor of things to come.

Okay, one more reason ERA is pathetic. Steve Trachsel couldn’t be any less effective if he tried - 12 innings, 6 walks, 3 strikeouts, and a 36% GB rate. He’s not throwing strikes, missing bats, or getting groundballs. He’s doing exactly zero things that lead to sustained success. He has a 6.32 xFIP during the part of the season when team’s aren’t scoring runs. His ERA? 3.00.

The average velocity on Barry Zito’s fastball in 2008 - 82.7 MPH. Zito is teetering on the edge of replacement level, and the Giants are on the hook for $18 million per season. This is the cost of not learning the lesson of the uselessness of ERA.

Wow. Jackson terrible tonight, Carmona Rocked in his subsequent start, Giants still sucking, Steve Traschel gets absolutely bombed, and Zito continues to blow. TALK ABOUT PREDICTIVE!
 

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.
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Good stuff Bud.....Jackson has potential but has sucked. Carmona.........he will be fine..........Trachsel has been doing it with smoke and mirrors the last year or so.......it will catch up to him again this year. NO idea what happened with Zito.
 

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