Murphy's Superior Staking Plan

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

You've all heard of that bollocks Kelly's critter, built for brainless mathematicians like Grainchew and others who havent a clue about whether their getting value in the first place mainly because they spend so much time talking nonsense. :missingte Murphy's Staking plan is much more user friendly for those who know what their betting from the start. If you hit a couple of winners then press up until further notice, if losing, drop your stakes till further notice. I realise Jokers like Grainchew and other joker math bollockes cannot understand this shit so I got my 5 Year Old Niece to knock out a formula.

timotinbowen · Apr 12, 2008

I know this is a joke, but I get so frustrated when people advocate this type of betting system. The Kelly Criterion works because it eliminates the risk of losing a bankroll (e.g. the bet size changes as the BR size changes). The advocates of the "increase after wins, decrease after losses" system believe that streaks are not simply the result of natural mathematical fluctuations (deviation). I always hear the argument, "If you win 6 in a row, doubling after each win, you'll win 127 units. Lose 6 in a row and you'll only lose 6 units." Yeah, phenomenal, except for the fact that there is a 1/36 chance of winning 6 games in a row. What happens when you see commonly observed trends, such as WLLWWLWLLWWL? The answer is that this results in a net loss of 1 unit (plus juice) after each loss. Further, what happens when you win 6 in a row and then lose the 7th? You have still lost one unit, plus the high juice! This is the opposite of sound money management. Kelly criterion advocates moderation, basing your betting around the premise that you are a +EV capper, and then grinding out a bankroll while minimizing your Risk of Ruin.

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

If you usec Kelly s bollock then you havent a clue about betting and thats the problem, alienation to the task in hand :nopityA::drink:

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

timotinbowen said:
I know this is a joke, but I get so frustrated when people advocate this type of betting system. The Kelly Criterion works because it eliminates the risk of losing a bankroll (e.g. the bet size changes as the BR size changes). The advocates of the "increase after wins, decrease after losses" system believe that streaks are not simply the result of natural mathematical fluctuations (deviation). I always hear the argument, "If you win 6 in a row, doubling after each win, you'll win 127 units. Lose 6 in a row and you'll only lose 6 units." Yeah, phenomenal, except for the fact that there is a 1/36 chance of winning 6 games in a row. What happens when you see commonly observed trends, such as WLLWWLWLLWWL? The answer is that this results in a net loss of 1 unit (plus juice) after each loss. Further, what happens when you win 6 in a row and then lose the 7th? You have still lost one unit, plus the high juice! This is the opposite of sound money management. Kelly criterion advocates moderation, basing your betting around the premise that you are a +EV capper, and then grinding out a bankroll while minimizing your Risk of Ruin.

Let me say one thing to you about this rubbish and I dont need you to answer because I know it, Do you win at betting. :missingte :drink:

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

timotinbowen said:
I know this is a joke, but I get so frustrated when people advocate this type of betting system. The Kelly Criterion works because it eliminates the risk of losing a bankroll (e.g. the bet size changes as the BR size changes). The advocates of the "increase after wins, decrease after losses" system believe that streaks are not simply the result of natural mathematical fluctuations (deviation). I always hear the argument, "If you win 6 in a row, doubling after each win, you'll win 127 units. Lose 6 in a row and you'll only lose 6 units." Yeah, phenomenal, except for the fact that there is a 1/36 chance of winning 6 games in a row. What happens when you see commonly observed trends, such as WLLWWLWLLWWL? The answer is that this results in a net loss of 1 unit (plus juice) after each loss. Further, what happens when you win 6 in a row and then lose the 7th? You have still lost one unit, plus the high juice! This is the opposite of sound money management. Kelly criterion advocates moderation, basing your betting around the premise that you are a +EV capper, and then grinding out a bankroll while minimizing your Risk of Ruin.

This is the sort of shit that drove Pol Pot to delerium, loads of bollocks but no produce. :nopityA::drink:

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

Send this Timmy bowen to SBR now, where he can talk Kelly bollocks all day long with wankers who havent a clue in the real world of Betting. Next you will be telling us about buying 1/2 points on grainchew Half point machine. :missingte No wonder the books are having a giraffe with you half wits betting. :drink:

X-Files · Apr 12, 2008

Sharp bet of the day, lay the juice...

Corona Championship April 10 - 13, 2008 - Final Round Matchups
4/13/2008 11:53 AM Alena Sharp vs Soo Yun Kang 18 holes only.
2301 Alena Sharp -120
2302 Soo Yun Kang +130
2303 Tie +815

:drink:

winbet · Apr 12, 2008

Now theres a sharp bastard and no kelly bokllocks in sight, always take on board what the Bouncing Tits man says. :drink:

timotinbowen · Apr 12, 2008

winbet said:
Let me say one thing to you about this rubbish and I dont need you to answer because I know it, Do you win at betting. :missingte :drink:

Yes. Up slightly more than 4k over about 4 months. Not a huge bettor, so I'm more than happy. I am only in my second year of capping, however, and would love some insight. But you already knew that, apparently. Also, would you mind showing some statistics that prove that "riding your streaks" is the way to go? And how do you know when to stop "riding the streak?" After you lose it all?