Thanks to friendly feedback.
Following is a reset of how I work, in order to refresh understanding for anyone not clear about my posting style for MLB.
=========
Further honing the investing and posting style we've been developing since beginning of NHL this past October, we'll be breaking our MLB investments into "Blocks" of approximately 100 selections.
Also, rather than using a grading system of "Units", "Dimes" "Pesos" or other denominations, we're going to simply create a mythical Bank which we will either add to or subtract from following each day's results.
The Mythical Bank is small in size to be in harmony with the majority of sports investors who though they may not say it out loud, are often smaller dollar players.
If your own "unit" is larger than those expressed within this thread, all you need to do is multiply for easy comparisons in the event you elect to play along with any of our posted investments.
Selections posted within this thread have a variety of components behind them which include, but are not limited to in-house capping, good advice from trusted friends, shameless coattailing of other forum friends (we try our best to note such tails) and the occasional fade of less respected sources (we make no note of such slumpers and of course wish them a speedy recovery)
Best of luck to us all for a profitable and successful MLB season in the weeks and months ahead.
STARTING BANK = $500.00
Following is a reset of how I work, in order to refresh understanding for anyone not clear about my posting style for MLB.
=========
Further honing the investing and posting style we've been developing since beginning of NHL this past October, we'll be breaking our MLB investments into "Blocks" of approximately 100 selections.
Also, rather than using a grading system of "Units", "Dimes" "Pesos" or other denominations, we're going to simply create a mythical Bank which we will either add to or subtract from following each day's results.
The Mythical Bank is small in size to be in harmony with the majority of sports investors who though they may not say it out loud, are often smaller dollar players.
If your own "unit" is larger than those expressed within this thread, all you need to do is multiply for easy comparisons in the event you elect to play along with any of our posted investments.
Selections posted within this thread have a variety of components behind them which include, but are not limited to in-house capping, good advice from trusted friends, shameless coattailing of other forum friends (we try our best to note such tails) and the occasional fade of less respected sources (we make no note of such slumpers and of course wish them a speedy recovery)
Best of luck to us all for a profitable and successful MLB season in the weeks and months ahead.
STARTING BANK = $500.00
BLOCK 2
Bank 561.66
Unless otherwise noted, all selections in this thread are ListedPitchers
MONDAY, April 14
DEVILRAY +110 vs Bomber $9
DRAY alt run line -1.5 (price to follow) $5
Nice luck of the draw here as Drays will draw Kennedy first and then the (possibly) tougher Pettite on Tuesday vs Eddie Jackson.
Advance notice that we'll very, very likely use the Under on Tuesday if we can catch a 9.5 given the Rays lose quite a bit of power vs LH and Jackson is smokin' the super Kind.
Back to tonight's game.....Kennedy has two starts vs TB in past two months of MLB. 9.1 IP, 1.60 WHIP and 7.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Rays starter Sonnanstine doesn't stun with his numbers, but 11 of his past 16 starts have been against teams from TopHalf of league. He's allowing barely 2 BB per 9 and only 1 HR per 10IP.
Rays also seem to like scoring when Andy's on the mound, with a heaping handful of just over 7 runs per game in his past 11 starts.
FUN With Numbers - Today's number is ZERO
Wazzat? That's the number of stolen bases for your New York Yankees this season. Just another indicator that this team is a slow, station to station offense that needs multiple HRs per game to compete. Just 44 runs in first 14 games for the men in pinstripes.
We'll note that the DRays offense is 6th in AL scoring first two weeks and that's with Upton and Crawford batting barely over .220 combined. If they get some oomph going like they did Sunday and get on base four to five times between them, this lineup is cooking with gas.
Oh, did we mention that the Yankees over past three seasons are a not-so-lusty 5-11 in first game After playing RedSox?
Yeah buddy.
Best to all of us for a profitable Monday
Bank 561.66
Unless otherwise noted, all selections in this thread are ListedPitchers
MONDAY, April 14
DEVILRAY +110 vs Bomber $9
DRAY alt run line -1.5 (price to follow) $5
Nice luck of the draw here as Drays will draw Kennedy first and then the (possibly) tougher Pettite on Tuesday vs Eddie Jackson.
Advance notice that we'll very, very likely use the Under on Tuesday if we can catch a 9.5 given the Rays lose quite a bit of power vs LH and Jackson is smokin' the super Kind.
Back to tonight's game.....Kennedy has two starts vs TB in past two months of MLB. 9.1 IP, 1.60 WHIP and 7.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Rays starter Sonnanstine doesn't stun with his numbers, but 11 of his past 16 starts have been against teams from TopHalf of league. He's allowing barely 2 BB per 9 and only 1 HR per 10IP.
Rays also seem to like scoring when Andy's on the mound, with a heaping handful of just over 7 runs per game in his past 11 starts.
FUN With Numbers - Today's number is ZERO
Wazzat? That's the number of stolen bases for your New York Yankees this season. Just another indicator that this team is a slow, station to station offense that needs multiple HRs per game to compete. Just 44 runs in first 14 games for the men in pinstripes.
We'll note that the DRays offense is 6th in AL scoring first two weeks and that's with Upton and Crawford batting barely over .220 combined. If they get some oomph going like they did Sunday and get on base four to five times between them, this lineup is cooking with gas.
Oh, did we mention that the Yankees over past three seasons are a not-so-lusty 5-11 in first game After playing RedSox?
Yeah buddy.
Best to all of us for a profitable Monday
all good...you can wear your Notre Dame cap while watching so as to feel closer to Whole.
==========
Adding for Monday
BIRD +122 vs Jay $7
JAY/BIRD Undah 9.5 (-110) $5
While many teams have trouble with first game Home After Away, the Orioles show no such struggle....8-4 last season and 8-3 the year before that.
Meanwhile, Jays are in a quirky spot having won three road games in a row. Over past three seasons, that's only happened eight times and each time they lost the subsequent game. While that's a small sample, it illustrates how tough it is to win four in a row Away and here they're being asked to beat -132 in same load.
--------------
LITTLE RANGERS -103 vs Halo $7
HALO/LR Undah 10.5 (-105) $7
One stat I like to watch is the GameOne results for a road team visiting their second (or more) city in one trip. And inversely, watch the GameOne results for a home team hosting their second (or more) team in a row.
In the case of the former, they're done in one hotel in one city, then on a bus to the airport, to a new city, to a hotel, shorter sleep, up and off to the ballpark. In the case of the latter, they've been home for at least two and probably three or four nights and their more regular routine is in play.
Not all teams reflect a disparate record here, but many do. And here we have both teams affected
Anaheim past 14 GameOnes in this role have seen just four wins. Texas past 13 GameOnes in this role are 11-2 (11-0 past 11). Going back two seasons, they're 20-7
As for the Total, Anaheim past 44 Away have topped 10.5 just 16 times. In divisional games Away they've topped 10.5 just 11 out of past 31.
Texas past 32 Home games have topped 10.5 just seven times. Take it back 50 Home games and they're 16-34 vs 10.5
In divisional games Home they've topped 10.5 just 11 out of 28
Line modestly pushed upwards due to early season scoring of Angels, but they've built the heavier end of that vs LHP. Meanwhile, Rangers are hitting some long ball, but are struggling to top 4 runs per game average.
------------------------
2TeamParlay
TRIBE -120 vs Sox
ATHLETIC +139 at Hose
Lay 6
Pays 20.29
Red Sox back on the road where following the three losses at Toronto they're now a very limp 7-24 in their past 31 Away vs teams in TopHalf of MLB
Boston in past 11 outings After playing NYY have won just three times.
Cleveland is in the aforementioned GameOne at Home (2nd or more series). In this role going back through last season they've won 15 out of 20
Indians have won their past seven Home games in a row vs a LH starter and 17 of past 26 in same role.
Meanwhile, down in Chitown, the A's will get another chance to wrack on a LHP following yesterday's snuffing by Cliff Lee. In the GameOne (2nd series Away) role they're a bit different - having won ten of past 15 outings in that role.
As for the WhiteSox, they're Home vs a LH starter - a role where they've won just nine times in past 25 chances. (1-1 this season)
Off to lawn/garden work and back in time to follow early games and poke around on the four late nighters.
==========
Adding for Monday
BIRD +122 vs Jay $7
JAY/BIRD Undah 9.5 (-110) $5
While many teams have trouble with first game Home After Away, the Orioles show no such struggle....8-4 last season and 8-3 the year before that.
Meanwhile, Jays are in a quirky spot having won three road games in a row. Over past three seasons, that's only happened eight times and each time they lost the subsequent game. While that's a small sample, it illustrates how tough it is to win four in a row Away and here they're being asked to beat -132 in same load.
--------------
LITTLE RANGERS -103 vs Halo $7
HALO/LR Undah 10.5 (-105) $7
One stat I like to watch is the GameOne results for a road team visiting their second (or more) city in one trip. And inversely, watch the GameOne results for a home team hosting their second (or more) team in a row.
In the case of the former, they're done in one hotel in one city, then on a bus to the airport, to a new city, to a hotel, shorter sleep, up and off to the ballpark. In the case of the latter, they've been home for at least two and probably three or four nights and their more regular routine is in play.
Not all teams reflect a disparate record here, but many do. And here we have both teams affected
Anaheim past 14 GameOnes in this role have seen just four wins. Texas past 13 GameOnes in this role are 11-2 (11-0 past 11). Going back two seasons, they're 20-7
As for the Total, Anaheim past 44 Away have topped 10.5 just 16 times. In divisional games Away they've topped 10.5 just 11 out of past 31.
Texas past 32 Home games have topped 10.5 just seven times. Take it back 50 Home games and they're 16-34 vs 10.5
In divisional games Home they've topped 10.5 just 11 out of 28
Line modestly pushed upwards due to early season scoring of Angels, but they've built the heavier end of that vs LHP. Meanwhile, Rangers are hitting some long ball, but are struggling to top 4 runs per game average.
------------------------
2TeamParlay
TRIBE -120 vs Sox
ATHLETIC +139 at Hose
Lay 6
Pays 20.29
Red Sox back on the road where following the three losses at Toronto they're now a very limp 7-24 in their past 31 Away vs teams in TopHalf of MLB
Boston in past 11 outings After playing NYY have won just three times.
Cleveland is in the aforementioned GameOne at Home (2nd or more series). In this role going back through last season they've won 15 out of 20
Indians have won their past seven Home games in a row vs a LH starter and 17 of past 26 in same role.
Meanwhile, down in Chitown, the A's will get another chance to wrack on a LHP following yesterday's snuffing by Cliff Lee. In the GameOne (2nd series Away) role they're a bit different - having won ten of past 15 outings in that role.
As for the WhiteSox, they're Home vs a LH starter - a role where they've won just nine times in past 25 chances. (1-1 this season)
Off to lawn/garden work and back in time to follow early games and poke around on the four late nighters.
Thank you KTG
Adding final selections with this
2TeamParlay
TWIN +1.5 (-160) at Cat
ROYAL +102 at Seamen
Lay 6
Pays 13.70
Are the first two week struggles of Motown just an anomaly or indicator of something more unstable?
Dunno, but here's what I do know.
Detroit going back to summer of 2006 is an odious 18-34 vs AL Central with only 10 of those 52 games covering the -1.5
Minny is just 11-16 past 27 Away vs AL Central, but 17-10 at +1.5
(side note....if we subtract the AL Central results, Detroit has played at 93-48 vs the rest of their schedule, so once they get past this four day stretch vs Min and Cle, they're out of division for next couple weeks.)
ALSO using Minny +144 in a 2TeamParlay with INDY PACERS ml (+175) for a 5.6 to 1 payout, but that won't be graded into my MLB thread results.
AS FOR the KC/SEA game, I've got some strong actuarial support for both sides. Seattle in the GameOne (second series at Home) role where they've been almost .700 last year, but Royals Away vs LHP are at a bit over .600 pace in same time frame.
Tilt for us is frankly just the price being offered. The -108 just screams for Seattle money vs the "lowly" Royals, so I'm going contrarian (Hi Joe!) and backing Zach and Co
Adding final selections with this
2TeamParlay
TWIN +1.5 (-160) at Cat
ROYAL +102 at Seamen
Lay 6
Pays 13.70
Are the first two week struggles of Motown just an anomaly or indicator of something more unstable?
Dunno, but here's what I do know.
Detroit going back to summer of 2006 is an odious 18-34 vs AL Central with only 10 of those 52 games covering the -1.5
Minny is just 11-16 past 27 Away vs AL Central, but 17-10 at +1.5
(side note....if we subtract the AL Central results, Detroit has played at 93-48 vs the rest of their schedule, so once they get past this four day stretch vs Min and Cle, they're out of division for next couple weeks.)
ALSO using Minny +144 in a 2TeamParlay with INDY PACERS ml (+175) for a 5.6 to 1 payout, but that won't be graded into my MLB thread results.
AS FOR the KC/SEA game, I've got some strong actuarial support for both sides. Seattle in the GameOne (second series at Home) role where they've been almost .700 last year, but Royals Away vs LHP are at a bit over .600 pace in same time frame.
Tilt for us is frankly just the price being offered. The -108 just screams for Seattle money vs the "lowly" Royals, so I'm going contrarian (Hi Joe!) and backing Zach and Co
Gl Barman....Lets go to a Rays game here in the near future....It doesn't matter to me what game...you and Shebar come up with one, and let me (us) know...I know I gave you my number at one time, but I think you accused me of falsifying it??
By the way, Damon stole the Yankees first stolen base last evening (actually he stole two times last night)!
By the way, Damon stole the Yankees first stolen base last evening (actually he stole two times last night)!
TUESDAY, Apr 15
Sunshine, Green Grass, Fresh Air....
Jesus I wish we could see a MLB game like that in my town.
ATHLETIC +105 at Hose $8
GIANT +124 vs Snake $8
2TeamParlay
HALO/LITTLE RANGERS Undah 10.5 (-115)
ATHLETIC/HOSE Undah 9 (-110)
Lay 8
Pays 20.55
----------------
Zona in early season falls off vs RHP and Correia's first two starts have been plenty stiff.
Oakland and Chisox again matching LH starters and we still prefer the A's (see yesterday's writeup). Almost played the Under yesterday since both teams are low BA and the hometown Sox have an extended run of futility vs LHs. So let's try it again today.
Ana/Tex Total...see yesterday's writeup. I likely erred by hoping Jennings would do his part, but I feel much more confident about Millwood to prevent the early blast o' runs from Angels.
============================
LEANS for evening
TBAY +112
MIN +120
SEA -1.5 (+160)
CLE -105
Best to us all for a profitable Tuesday
Sunshine, Green Grass, Fresh Air....
Jesus I wish we could see a MLB game like that in my town.
ATHLETIC +105 at Hose $8
GIANT +124 vs Snake $8
2TeamParlay
HALO/LITTLE RANGERS Undah 10.5 (-115)
ATHLETIC/HOSE Undah 9 (-110)
Lay 8
Pays 20.55
----------------
Zona in early season falls off vs RHP and Correia's first two starts have been plenty stiff.
Oakland and Chisox again matching LH starters and we still prefer the A's (see yesterday's writeup). Almost played the Under yesterday since both teams are low BA and the hometown Sox have an extended run of futility vs LHs. So let's try it again today.
Ana/Tex Total...see yesterday's writeup. I likely erred by hoping Jennings would do his part, but I feel much more confident about Millwood to prevent the early blast o' runs from Angels.
============================
LEANS for evening
TBAY +112
MIN +120
SEA -1.5 (+160)
CLE -105
Best to us all for a profitable Tuesday
Also used these for Tuesday (booked very AM at Betjam)
DEVILRAY +111 vs Bomber $6
TRIBE -105 vs Sox $6
TWIN +127 at Cat $6
SEAMEN -1.5 (+160) vs Royal $5
Reasoning for each pretty much summed up in yesterdays' analysis. Switching sides to Seattle today as KC Greinke-less and both teams more likely to invert results following the 4-1 Away win yesterday for low-level Royals.
DEVILRAY +111 vs Bomber $6
TRIBE -105 vs Sox $6
TWIN +127 at Cat $6
SEAMEN -1.5 (+160) vs Royal $5
Reasoning for each pretty much summed up in yesterdays' analysis. Switching sides to Seattle today as KC Greinke-less and both teams more likely to invert results following the 4-1 Away win yesterday for low-level Royals.
