Monday, April 14 — Blue Jays -122

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Hey all,

Haven't posted much in the MLB forum, however I was a regular in the NHL forum this season. As a resident of Toronto, I've been following the Blue Jays for the last 10 years rather closely. Although I am a huge fan, I wouldn't consider myself a homer. I feel like I have an advanced view and opinion on the Jays, therefore I'm here to post plays when I feel they're very strong, or very weak.

Tonight the Jays open a short two-game series in Baltimore. Historically, the Jays play Baltimore very well. In the first game of a series when playing in Baltimore, the Jays are 8-3 in their last 11, winning each of those 8 games by 2+ runs. They also went on to win 7 of those 11 series, with 2 being series splits and 2 series losses. With McGowan going tonight and Marcum going tomorrow, I think they Jays could very well sweep this short series.

I also love the matchup tonight because Baltimore has Albers coming out of the bullpen to start. He hasn't pitched more than 3 complete innings this year in one appearance, so I think the Jays will have a great chance of getting to him by the middle of the game, and possible to the Orioles bullpen early on. Albers has been impressive in relief this year, but I think his numbers are very misleading. The Jays expose him tonight. Albers was a starter for Houston last year, but only won 4 of his 18 starts, and had an ERA close to 6. McGowan, on the other hand, has been solid thus far. He gets his first win tonight.

With the run line giving you plus money, I believe there is good value there as well. The total is set at 9, which the Jays could potential hit on their own.

Living in Canada gives me the ability to use Pinnacle as my book, which offer great lines. The play options for tonight are:

Blue Jays -122
Blue Jays -1.5 +135
Over 9 +106

Official play: Blue Jays, 1 unit, -122

Note -- my unit size is rather large. I never bet to-win more than 1 unit on a game. In the future you may see quarter, half, or three-quarter unit sized bets. Meaning, this is my maximum sized bet, and is therefore one of my strongest plays.

Good luck.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 3, 2007
Messages
920
Tokens
No problem. I always loved reading insight from local specialists in this forum, so hopefully I can add to the great amount of useful knowledge.
 

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