Thoughts wanted- Betting unders on Sundays in MLB seems profitable

Iceman · Apr 20, 2008

I am sure it isnt as you cant just bet blindly and win but it seems to make sense to me to lean to unders on Sunday in MLB. I know hindsight is 20/20 as this went 9-5 so far today (with 1 pending) but being a HUGE Tigers fan I have noticed a few of my examples from years of watching them. Here are a few reasons I feel (add some if you have any):

1) Most games are "getaway" games with teams leavng town after the game.
2) Umps want to speed the game up for same as above reason
3) A lot of managers are notorius for resting catchers and other key players who need the rest, a little more on Sundays.
4) Weekend bettors are a little more public driven and the public likes to play the overs a little more than the unders.
5) A lot of games are played on Saturday nite and they turn back around and play a Sunday afternoon game, maybe making for some tired ballplayers.

Some of the reasoning seems to make sense. I know this isnt anything groundbreaking but thought it leads to a decent discussion. I was just wondering if anyone tends to play more unders on Sundays? Has anyone tracked this before? Do books slant their lines a little lower on Sundays?

Iceman · Apr 20, 2008

Let me say again that I do not believe that it is profitable betting all of them without putting any thought into it but going forward it will be something I will put into making my decisions on Sundays.

fivestarjake · Apr 20, 2008

how are the bases treating you so far?

Fishhead · Apr 20, 2008

I like your thinking Iceman, precisely why I like certain NBA dogs on Friday nights.

sharky99 · Apr 20, 2008

Don't forget the puckheads also at least today, thx to bookmaker for putting up the individually periods lines also :103631605

arty:

VIEJODINOSAUR · Apr 20, 2008

Iceman said:
I am sure it isnt as you cant just bet blindly and win but it seems to make sense to me to lean to unders on Sunday in MLB. I know hindsight is 20/20 as this went 9-5 so far today (with 1 pending) but being a HUGE Tigers fan I have noticed a few of my examples from years of watching them. Here are a few reasons I feel (add some if you have any):

1) Most games are "getaway" games with teams leavng town after the game.
2) Umps want to speed the game up for same as above reason
3) A lot of managers are notorius for resting catchers and other key players who need the rest, a little more on Sundays.
4) Weekend bettors are a little more public driven and the public likes to play the overs a little more than the unders.
5) A lot of games are played on Saturday nite and they turn back around and play a Sunday afternoon game, maybe making for some tired ballplayers.

Some of the reasoning seems to make sense. I know this isnt anything groundbreaking but thought it leads to a decent discussion. I was just wondering if anyone tends to play more unders on Sundays? Has anyone tracked this before? Do books slant their lines a little lower on Sundays?

I believe the books have already picked this up during the past couple of years and I do not buy into the deal of young players getting tired in April and May, already too many days off...Catchers on the other hand are players who need days off....

BillDildeaux · Apr 20, 2008

2007 Sunday Games

All Games - 176O - 183U

NL - 91O - 74U
AL - 58O - 82U

WED nights were the big Under night last year but I think it changes every year.

Iceman · Apr 20, 2008

fivestarjake said:
how are the bases treating you so far?

Pretty good. One thing I forgot was this is by far the worst sport to scoreboard watch with, talk about agonizing.

Complete opposite of last year so far, beating totals this year (last year lost) and runlines have been tough (did great with these).

Still a long way to go but making some adjustments and focusing completely on getting the best number on a team all day knowing if I do that this will add up at the end and put me ahead betting sides. This is a totally different approach than most who bet bases but for me it is just simple math. It just takes a lot of games/bets to see these great prcies take effect. At least this is the plan.

onemwtheone · Apr 21, 2008

I did some research several years back wrt to Sunday MLB totals. I think I found that, yes, the under was a generally a better play on Sunday, but I attributed it the fact that most were day games. Days games add about 0.2 runs to the total, but the betting public generally overcompenstated by about 0.3 runs, leading to a small advantage to going under (about 1%).