[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]HOW TO TIME THE MARKET IN BASEBALL BETTING[/FONT][FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]During this past football season, I referred often to how professional sports betters in Las Vegas and Reno make the most of their investment strategies by betting at the proper time.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If they like a favorite, they know they have to bet early because the public loves favorites. The longer a football line stays up, the more likely it is to move toward the favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If they like the underdog, they wait until the last minute to bet. If you know the line is going to keep going up because of public influence, you might as well bet at the highest possible line.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Betting favorites late is stupid, as is betting underdogs early. Though, there are some exceptions where a line is so high that you've just got to get the dog because the public will be scared off the favorite. We saw that in the Super Bowl when the Patriots opened at -14, and the only takers were on the underdog! Still, those are good general rules to follow in football, and in basketball during March Madness.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Is there a similar phenomenon in baseball that can be exploited? [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]There is, but it revolves around the starting pitchers rather than the dog/favorite dichotomy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Now, I'm hoping many of you have jumped a step ahead of me here. If you're truly "thinking like a sharp," which is what I've been trying to teach with these internet articles, you're thinking about ways to shoot middles. This is hard to do in baseball because the run totals don't move THAT much. But, they do move enough to give you some targets to shoot at. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's say a total opens at "7 Over" in a projected pitcher's duel. That means taking the Over is -120, and taking the Under is at even money. That's not uncommon. With low totals, oddsmakers are sometimes concerned about nobody betting Under because 7's are kind of rare. Your read of the market tells you that pitcher's duels get bet Under, so you jump on the Under with no juice. And, because you're confident that a line move is coming, you invest more than you normally would knowing you'll buy some back. You bet TWO units on Under 7.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Later in the day, it turns out you're exactly right, people are betting the Under so strong that it's moved all the way down to "6.5 Under." Maybe it's Peavy vs. Webb in San Diego. You can now come back on Over 6.5 with no juice too. Let's do that for ONE unit.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You've got:
TWO units on Under 7
ONE unit on Over 6.5[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's true that you can't hit a middle. But, this approach does magnify the profit potential compared to just betting one unit on the Under at opening. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I don't want to make it seem like this is easy, and that it's happening every day. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks are aware of this negative potential, and only find themselves in danger of this on the extreme ends of the spectrum as a general rule. But, you can find spots where moves of this size will happen if you know the game well. And, you can also create some of these opportunities with small juice rather than no juice. That's still worth doing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Can you do anything with team sides? I'll save shooting for middles with 1.5 run lines for another day. Since you have to pick the straight up winner in traditional baseball handicapping, you can't apply the pointspread middling approaches from football or basketball here. But, you can try your hand at scalping if you anticipate a really big line move on a team side. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's say you expect a favorite of -160 or so to shoot way up because the public is going to bet the favorite. I'll take an extreme example and say it's going to move all the way to -210. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]In past years, there were many guys in Vegas who made their livings doing this rather than traditional handicapping. In the early days of offshore action, that was true as well. It's much harder right now to make that work in terms of making a living. But, you can find some spots that are like gravy for your regular income. Sharps don't turn down shots at free money if they can find them![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]So, to sum it all up, YES, you can time the market in baseball too. It's your job as budding sharps to exploit every edge you can find. You want the right teams at the right time![/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]HOW TO TIME THE MARKET IN BASEBALL BETTING[/FONT][FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]During this past football season, I referred often to how professional sports betters in Las Vegas and Reno make the most of their investment strategies by betting at the proper time.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If they like a favorite, they know they have to bet early because the public loves favorites. The longer a football line stays up, the more likely it is to move toward the favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If they like the underdog, they wait until the last minute to bet. If you know the line is going to keep going up because of public influence, you might as well bet at the highest possible line.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Betting favorites late is stupid, as is betting underdogs early. Though, there are some exceptions where a line is so high that you've just got to get the dog because the public will be scared off the favorite. We saw that in the Super Bowl when the Patriots opened at -14, and the only takers were on the underdog! Still, those are good general rules to follow in football, and in basketball during March Madness.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Is there a similar phenomenon in baseball that can be exploited? [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]There is, but it revolves around the starting pitchers rather than the dog/favorite dichotomy. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If there is a perceived pitching mismatch, the public is going to take the big name pitcher whatever the price. They figure he's going to win, and it will be easy. There aren't any truly dominant guys in the majors right now because of injuries. Think back to Randy Johnson at his peak, or Francisco Liriano with the Twins a couple of years ago. Oddsmakers couldn't make a line high enough to discourage the public. And, guys like that can have hot streaks that convince the public that the line doesn't matter. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If there's a perceived pitcher's duel, with BOTH teams throwing star hurlers, then the total moves DOWN during the day. This is about the only sport where the public can love an Under. They always imagine 2-1 or 3-2 games when aces are throwing. So, they gladly jump on Under 8 in the AL or Under 7 in the NL. If you like playing Unders with ace pitchers yourself, you need to act as soon as the lines go up. You may get a half-run advantage, and very probably a moneyline edge in your favor too. If you like fading the steam and going Over low totals, wait until right before the game starts so you create the lowest possible hurdle.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If there's a game with well known teams and mediocre or poor pitchers on the mound, the public loves betting Overs. This is particularly true in high scoring stadiums. A total might open at 10.5, and go to 11, or even higher. We haven't seen so much of that this year because it's been a low scoring season so far. When the weather warms up, this will become more common...particularly in the bandbox stadiums or the great hitter's parks like they have down in Texas. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Now, I'm hoping many of you have jumped a step ahead of me here. If you're truly "thinking like a sharp," which is what I've been trying to teach with these internet articles, you're thinking about ways to shoot middles. This is hard to do in baseball because the run totals don't move THAT much. But, they do move enough to give you some targets to shoot at. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's say a total opens at "7 Over" in a projected pitcher's duel. That means taking the Over is -120, and taking the Under is at even money. That's not uncommon. With low totals, oddsmakers are sometimes concerned about nobody betting Under because 7's are kind of rare. Your read of the market tells you that pitcher's duels get bet Under, so you jump on the Under with no juice. And, because you're confident that a line move is coming, you invest more than you normally would knowing you'll buy some back. You bet TWO units on Under 7.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Later in the day, it turns out you're exactly right, people are betting the Under so strong that it's moved all the way down to "6.5 Under." Maybe it's Peavy vs. Webb in San Diego. You can now come back on Over 6.5 with no juice too. Let's do that for ONE unit.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You've got:
TWO units on Under 7
ONE unit on Over 6.5[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's true that you can't hit a middle. But, this approach does magnify the profit potential compared to just betting one unit on the Under at opening. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If the game lands on a number 8 or higher, you lose a unit, which is what you would have been risking anyway.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If the game lands on a number 6 or lower, you win a unit, which is what you would have been hoping for anyway.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If the game lands exactly on the number 7, you win a unit instead of pushing! People betting just one unit on Under 7 at the opening push here. You win! In essence you bought yourself a half a run. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I don't want to make it seem like this is easy, and that it's happening every day. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks are aware of this negative potential, and only find themselves in danger of this on the extreme ends of the spectrum as a general rule. But, you can find spots where moves of this size will happen if you know the game well. And, you can also create some of these opportunities with small juice rather than no juice. That's still worth doing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Can you do anything with team sides? I'll save shooting for middles with 1.5 run lines for another day. Since you have to pick the straight up winner in traditional baseball handicapping, you can't apply the pointspread middling approaches from football or basketball here. But, you can try your hand at scalping if you anticipate a really big line move on a team side. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's say you expect a favorite of -160 or so to shoot way up because the public is going to bet the favorite. I'll take an extreme example and say it's going to move all the way to -210. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You bet the favorite at -160 (that's 1.6 units to win one unit)
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You bet the underdog late at +180 (that's one unit to win 1.8 units)[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]In past years, there were many guys in Vegas who made their livings doing this rather than traditional handicapping. In the early days of offshore action, that was true as well. It's much harder right now to make that work in terms of making a living. But, you can find some spots that are like gravy for your regular income. Sharps don't turn down shots at free money if they can find them![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]So, to sum it all up, YES, you can time the market in baseball too. It's your job as budding sharps to exploit every edge you can find. You want the right teams at the right time![/FONT]
