Miller,Andrew: IP 17.7, ERA 9.68, FIP 4.03, xFIP 4.07, xERA 8.09, Hybrid 4.04, BP xERA 4.31
BABIP 0.475 Strand 0.565 Luck -0.31, Override 4.6
Bennett,Jeff: IP 19.3, ERA 4.19, FIP 4.61, xFIP 4.95, xERA 4.26, Hybrid 6.19, BP xERA 4.19
BABIP 0.276 Strand 0.759 Luck 0.08, Override 5
Miller is getting better. He got roughed up a bit in the first inning of his last start, then calmed down and was an effective pitcher. FIP ERA says he’s not bad. BABIP and Strand rate say he’s been unlucky. Bennett, becoming a spot starter when Glavine hit the DL, will probably be back in the bullpen when Glavine comes off the DL next Tuesday. He was sent home from yesterday’s game with a fever, but is expected to throw tonight. Bennett’s ERA numbers look OK on the surface, but he still has problems with his control that might pop up here.
Sampson,Chris: IP 11.3, ERA 8.74, FIP 3.16, xFIP 4.4, xERA 6.91, Hybrid 5.64, BP xERA 4.89
BABIP 0.383 Strand 0.476 Luck -0.31, Override 5
Arroyo,Bronson: IP 21.3, ERA 5.48, FIP 6.27, xFIP 4.39, xERA 5.72, Hybrid 4.55, BP xERA 4.34
BABIP 0.313 Strand 0.699 Luck -0.01, Override 4.7
Sampson, pitching against a tired Rockies team that had just played a 22 inning game , didn’t get out of the first inning in his last start. He doesn’t have great stuff, so when the BABIP and strand rates go up, he gets shelled. Sampson had been keeping the ball down and getting ground balls for the most part; that wasn’t the case in his Colorado outing. If he doesn’t create ground balls tonight, it could get ugly. Arroyo hasn’t won a game yet this year. He hasn’t made it past the six inning once in his four starts, and is really struggling with walks and home runs. That is reflected in his FIP numbers. Once those normalize, he should be OK.
Santana,Johan: IP 27.7, ERA 3.25, FIP 3.66, xFIP 2.93, xERA 2.2, Hybrid 2.98, BP xERA 3.28
BABIP 0.211 Strand 0.765 Luck 0.15, Override 3
Redding,Tim: IP 22, ERA 3.27, FIP 4.49, xFIP 4.63, xERA 3.11, Hybrid 5.63, BP xERA 5.36
BABIP 0.226 Strand 0.57 Luck -0.06, Override 4.7
There’s been some whispers complaining about Santana ‘struggling’ this year. Talk about high expectations…you know what you are going to get out of Santana. One of the best in the game. Redding struck out 10 in his last start, a stunning number considering his history. He allowed four base runners in six innings; all four scored which explains why his strand rate is so low. It won’t be easy for him to keep it up; too many home runs and not enough strikeouts.
Hamels,Cole: IP 29, ERA 1.86, FIP 2.97, xFIP 4.26, xERA 2.25, Hybrid 3.47, BP xERA 3.44
BABIP 0.209 Strand 0.761 Luck 0.15, Override 3.5
Bush,David: IP 16.7, ERA 7.02, FIP 4.1, xFIP 4.92, xERA 5.1, Hybrid 4.62, BP xERA 4.39
BABIP 0.333 Strand 0.544 Luck -0.19, Override 4.8
Hamels has been getting a lot of flyballs with his changeup so far this season, but has only allowed one home run so far. That is bound to change, and is the reason why his xFIP is out of whack with his other ERA numbers. Bush is having an awful time with his control, walking 10 batters in just sixteen innings of work. He typically averages about two per nine innings.
Hill,Rich: IP 14, ERA 3.86, FIP 4.61, xFIP 5.69, xERA 3.51, Hybrid 3.89, BP xERA 4.21
BABIP 0.231 Strand 0.765 Luck 0.13, Override 4.8
Morales,Franklin: IP 15, ERA 6.6, FIP 5.3, xFIP 6.3, xERA 4.73, Hybrid 4.54, BP xERA 5.09
BABIP 0.245 Strand 0.61 Luck -0.04, Override 4.9
A flyball pitcher heading into Coors…never a good idea. Another problem for Rich Hill: his best pitch, the curveball, will flatten out at the high altitude. The results seem to bear this out. In 10 innings at Coors, Hill has allowed 13 runs. Small sample size, obviously. But he should struggle at altitude given his style of pitching. Morales had a great first start to the season but has struggled ever since. He’s not striking out hitters and is walking way too many batters; 11 in 15 innings.
Cain,Matt: IP 20.3, ERA 6.64, FIP 5.01, xFIP 4.89, xERA 5.29, Hybrid 3.87, BP xERA 4.3
BABIP 0.3 Strand 0.629 Luck -0.07, Override 3.9
Maddux,Greg: IP 25, ERA 4.68, FIP 4.46, xFIP 3.67, xERA 3.69, Hybrid 4.22, BP xERA 4.76
BABIP 0.247 Strand 0.656 Luck 0.01, Override 4.4
The Cardinals hammered Cain for 9 runs in 3 innings his last time out, raising his ERA from 3.24 to 6.64. I’m going to chalk it up as just one of those days and hope there isn’t an injury lurking behind that start. Maddux gave up three home runs in his first start of the year, but has allowed just one in his three most recent starts. Like Cain, he wsa knocked around pretty well his last time out. Maddux took one for the team, allowing 9 runs in seven innings to help save a worn out bullpen. He did throw 113 pitches in that game, a pretty high amount for him.
Haren,Dan: IP 25, ERA 1.8, FIP 3.42, xFIP 3.37, xERA 2.2, Hybrid 4.54, BP xERA 3.74
BABIP 0.217 Strand 0.843 Luck 0.23, Override 3.8
Lowe,Derek: IP 24.3, ERA 2.59, FIP 2.57, xFIP 3.3, xERA 4.05, Hybrid 4.15, BP xERA 4.41
BABIP 0.325 Strand 0.71 Luck -0.02, Override 4
Haren has been like a machine so far this year, allowing just four walks in 25 innings pitched. Until his last start against Atlanta, Lowe was equally impressive. His numbers are still solid, however, and when he’s throwing strikes he has the ability to shut a team down. That will have to be the case tonight; the Arizona offense seems to be scoring at will lately.
Wellemeyer,Todd: IP 25, ERA 3.24, FIP 4.5, xFIP 3.13, xERA 2.75, Hybrid 4.81, BP xERA 4.8
BABIP 0.228 Strand 0.9 Luck 0.27, Override 4.4
Snell,Ian: IP 24.3, ERA 4.07, FIP 2.41, xFIP 3.31, xERA 4.68, Hybrid 4.3, BP xERA 4.32
BABIP 0.35 Strand 0.675 Luck -0.07, Override 4.3
I keep thinking of Wellemeyer as a Cub, and I think it is tainting my opinion of him. He is putting up some great numbers: 26 K’s in 25 innings is outstanding. He’s gotten some luck, and throwing twice against San Francisco helps as well. But if he keeps the ball down and throws strikes, he’ll be a solid pitcher.
American League
Garland,Jon: IP 24.3, ERA 4.81, FIP 5.43, xFIP 5.11, xERA 5.88, Hybrid 4.77, BP xERA 4.67
BABIP 0.319 Strand 0.688 Luck -0.03, Override 4.9
Matsuzaka,Daisuke: IP 28.7, ERA 3.14, FIP 4.38, xFIP 4.61, xERA 2.77, Hybrid 3.84, BP xERA 3.9
BABIP 0.214 Strand 0.818 Luck 0.2, Override 3.8
Garland has three strikeouts in 24 innings. Yuck. Matsuzaka cut down his walks his last time out, letting just two Rangers get free passes. Not sure how the Angels’ free swinging ways will play out against him, but it will be an early preview for the playoffs.
Mendoza,Luis: IP 8, ERA 9, FIP 6.96, xFIP 7.13, xERA 8.41, Hybrid 5.36, BP xERA 5.74
BABIP 0.387 Strand 0.51 Luck -0.28, Override 5
Rogers,Kenny: IP 21.3, ERA 6.33, FIP 5.29, xFIP 5.96, xERA 5.08, Hybrid 5.08, BP xERA 4.78
BABIP 0.288 Strand 0.602 Luck -0.09, Override 4.9
Mendoza is supposed to be a ground ball pitcher, but he’s not getting many ground balls. He’s also walking too many batters; six walks in just 8 innings so far. Rogers too is struggling in this department. He has a 12/9 walk to strikeout ratio so far this season.
Halladay,Roy: IP 33, ERA 3.27, FIP 3.84, xFIP 3.1, xERA 3.48, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 3.99
BABIP 0.292 Strand 0.802 Luck 0.11, Override 3.8
Hammel,Jason: IP 19, ERA 4.26, FIP 3.03, xFIP 3.65, xERA 3.72, Hybrid 4.81, BP xERA 4.78
BABIP 0.295 Strand 0.664 Luck -0.03, Override 4.8
Carmona,Fausto: IP 23, ERA 1.96, FIP 4.82, xFIP 5.56, xERA 3.78, Hybrid 4.17, BP xERA 4.15
BABIP 0.246 Strand 0.838 Luck 0.19, Override 4.3
Tomko,Brett: IP 20, ERA 3.6, FIP 4.08, xFIP 4.09, xERA 3.5, Hybrid 5.07, BP xERA 4.92
BABIP 0.258 Strand 0.743 Luck 0.09, Override 4.9
I don’t think Carmona has to worry about his control problems with Kansas City…those guys have never seen a pitch they don’t think they can hit. Tomko, making his first start last week against a team not named the Twins, pitched OK against the Angels. I think it is all downhill from here however.
Mussina,Mike: IP 20.3, ERA 5.75, FIP 6.48, xFIP 4.63, xERA 4.97, Hybrid 4.97, BP xERA 4.56
BABIP 0.294 Strand 0.708 Luck 0.01, Override 4.8
Vazquez,Javier: IP 25.3, ERA 3.2, FIP 1.9, xFIP 3.55, xERA 3.23, Hybrid 3.94, BP xERA 3.7
BABIP 0.324 Strand 0.71 Luck -0.01, Override 3.7
Baby Boss isn’t happy with his Moose. Mussina has gotten lit up by Boston his last two starts, and has allowed 5 home runs in just 20 innings. Playing the White Sox at the Cell isn’t going to help that problem either. Vazquez has been outstanding so far this season; the BABIP and strand rates show it isn’t a fluke.
Bonser,Boof: IP 23, ERA 4.7, FIP 3.69, xFIP 4.6, xERA 4.35, Hybrid 4.93, BP xERA 4.77
BABIP 0.296 Strand 0.588 Luck -0.11, Override 4.4
Gaudin,Chad: IP 17, ERA 4.76, FIP 4.08, xFIP 4.32, xERA 3.81, Hybrid 4.37, BP xERA 4.44
BABIP 0.292 Strand 0.594 Luck -0.1, Override 5
Two of Boof’s four starts have come against Kansas City; you have to worry about his decent numbers being tainted by less than quality competition. If you throw out the KC starts, Bonser has allowed 11 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings pitched. We can play “subtract the Royals” with Gaudin as well. If we take away his last start against KC, Gaudin has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 10 innings pitched. He did get 8 strikeouts against the Royals, and that could be an indication that his health problems are starting to clear up.
Cabrera,Daniel: IP 22.7, ERA 5.16, FIP 6.57, xFIP 5.14, xERA 4.74, Hybrid 4.47, BP xERA 4.47
BABIP 0.239 Strand 0.807 Luck 0.17, Override 5
Silva,Carlos: IP 29, ERA 2.79, FIP 4.4, xFIP 4.71, xERA 3.42, Hybrid 5.38, BP xERA 4.96
BABIP 0.255 Strand 0.839 Luck 0.18, Override 4.7
Cabrera has been solid in his last two starts, keeping his walks to a minimum and getting a ton of groundballs. That’s why Baltimore keeps putting up with him; he has stretches like this where he looks like he finally puts it all together. His strikeout numbers are down as well; maybe he’s sacrificing some stuff for control. Or maybe it is just two starts. Silva is pitching well so far this year, but his FIP numbers show that he is going to regress some.
BABIP 0.475 Strand 0.565 Luck -0.31, Override 4.6
Bennett,Jeff: IP 19.3, ERA 4.19, FIP 4.61, xFIP 4.95, xERA 4.26, Hybrid 6.19, BP xERA 4.19
BABIP 0.276 Strand 0.759 Luck 0.08, Override 5
Miller is getting better. He got roughed up a bit in the first inning of his last start, then calmed down and was an effective pitcher. FIP ERA says he’s not bad. BABIP and Strand rate say he’s been unlucky. Bennett, becoming a spot starter when Glavine hit the DL, will probably be back in the bullpen when Glavine comes off the DL next Tuesday. He was sent home from yesterday’s game with a fever, but is expected to throw tonight. Bennett’s ERA numbers look OK on the surface, but he still has problems with his control that might pop up here.
Sampson,Chris: IP 11.3, ERA 8.74, FIP 3.16, xFIP 4.4, xERA 6.91, Hybrid 5.64, BP xERA 4.89
BABIP 0.383 Strand 0.476 Luck -0.31, Override 5
Arroyo,Bronson: IP 21.3, ERA 5.48, FIP 6.27, xFIP 4.39, xERA 5.72, Hybrid 4.55, BP xERA 4.34
BABIP 0.313 Strand 0.699 Luck -0.01, Override 4.7
Sampson, pitching against a tired Rockies team that had just played a 22 inning game , didn’t get out of the first inning in his last start. He doesn’t have great stuff, so when the BABIP and strand rates go up, he gets shelled. Sampson had been keeping the ball down and getting ground balls for the most part; that wasn’t the case in his Colorado outing. If he doesn’t create ground balls tonight, it could get ugly. Arroyo hasn’t won a game yet this year. He hasn’t made it past the six inning once in his four starts, and is really struggling with walks and home runs. That is reflected in his FIP numbers. Once those normalize, he should be OK.
Santana,Johan: IP 27.7, ERA 3.25, FIP 3.66, xFIP 2.93, xERA 2.2, Hybrid 2.98, BP xERA 3.28
BABIP 0.211 Strand 0.765 Luck 0.15, Override 3
Redding,Tim: IP 22, ERA 3.27, FIP 4.49, xFIP 4.63, xERA 3.11, Hybrid 5.63, BP xERA 5.36
BABIP 0.226 Strand 0.57 Luck -0.06, Override 4.7
There’s been some whispers complaining about Santana ‘struggling’ this year. Talk about high expectations…you know what you are going to get out of Santana. One of the best in the game. Redding struck out 10 in his last start, a stunning number considering his history. He allowed four base runners in six innings; all four scored which explains why his strand rate is so low. It won’t be easy for him to keep it up; too many home runs and not enough strikeouts.
Hamels,Cole: IP 29, ERA 1.86, FIP 2.97, xFIP 4.26, xERA 2.25, Hybrid 3.47, BP xERA 3.44
BABIP 0.209 Strand 0.761 Luck 0.15, Override 3.5
Bush,David: IP 16.7, ERA 7.02, FIP 4.1, xFIP 4.92, xERA 5.1, Hybrid 4.62, BP xERA 4.39
BABIP 0.333 Strand 0.544 Luck -0.19, Override 4.8
Hamels has been getting a lot of flyballs with his changeup so far this season, but has only allowed one home run so far. That is bound to change, and is the reason why his xFIP is out of whack with his other ERA numbers. Bush is having an awful time with his control, walking 10 batters in just sixteen innings of work. He typically averages about two per nine innings.
Hill,Rich: IP 14, ERA 3.86, FIP 4.61, xFIP 5.69, xERA 3.51, Hybrid 3.89, BP xERA 4.21
BABIP 0.231 Strand 0.765 Luck 0.13, Override 4.8
Morales,Franklin: IP 15, ERA 6.6, FIP 5.3, xFIP 6.3, xERA 4.73, Hybrid 4.54, BP xERA 5.09
BABIP 0.245 Strand 0.61 Luck -0.04, Override 4.9
A flyball pitcher heading into Coors…never a good idea. Another problem for Rich Hill: his best pitch, the curveball, will flatten out at the high altitude. The results seem to bear this out. In 10 innings at Coors, Hill has allowed 13 runs. Small sample size, obviously. But he should struggle at altitude given his style of pitching. Morales had a great first start to the season but has struggled ever since. He’s not striking out hitters and is walking way too many batters; 11 in 15 innings.
Cain,Matt: IP 20.3, ERA 6.64, FIP 5.01, xFIP 4.89, xERA 5.29, Hybrid 3.87, BP xERA 4.3
BABIP 0.3 Strand 0.629 Luck -0.07, Override 3.9
Maddux,Greg: IP 25, ERA 4.68, FIP 4.46, xFIP 3.67, xERA 3.69, Hybrid 4.22, BP xERA 4.76
BABIP 0.247 Strand 0.656 Luck 0.01, Override 4.4
The Cardinals hammered Cain for 9 runs in 3 innings his last time out, raising his ERA from 3.24 to 6.64. I’m going to chalk it up as just one of those days and hope there isn’t an injury lurking behind that start. Maddux gave up three home runs in his first start of the year, but has allowed just one in his three most recent starts. Like Cain, he wsa knocked around pretty well his last time out. Maddux took one for the team, allowing 9 runs in seven innings to help save a worn out bullpen. He did throw 113 pitches in that game, a pretty high amount for him.
Haren,Dan: IP 25, ERA 1.8, FIP 3.42, xFIP 3.37, xERA 2.2, Hybrid 4.54, BP xERA 3.74
BABIP 0.217 Strand 0.843 Luck 0.23, Override 3.8
Lowe,Derek: IP 24.3, ERA 2.59, FIP 2.57, xFIP 3.3, xERA 4.05, Hybrid 4.15, BP xERA 4.41
BABIP 0.325 Strand 0.71 Luck -0.02, Override 4
Haren has been like a machine so far this year, allowing just four walks in 25 innings pitched. Until his last start against Atlanta, Lowe was equally impressive. His numbers are still solid, however, and when he’s throwing strikes he has the ability to shut a team down. That will have to be the case tonight; the Arizona offense seems to be scoring at will lately.
Wellemeyer,Todd: IP 25, ERA 3.24, FIP 4.5, xFIP 3.13, xERA 2.75, Hybrid 4.81, BP xERA 4.8
BABIP 0.228 Strand 0.9 Luck 0.27, Override 4.4
Snell,Ian: IP 24.3, ERA 4.07, FIP 2.41, xFIP 3.31, xERA 4.68, Hybrid 4.3, BP xERA 4.32
BABIP 0.35 Strand 0.675 Luck -0.07, Override 4.3
I keep thinking of Wellemeyer as a Cub, and I think it is tainting my opinion of him. He is putting up some great numbers: 26 K’s in 25 innings is outstanding. He’s gotten some luck, and throwing twice against San Francisco helps as well. But if he keeps the ball down and throws strikes, he’ll be a solid pitcher.
American League
Garland,Jon: IP 24.3, ERA 4.81, FIP 5.43, xFIP 5.11, xERA 5.88, Hybrid 4.77, BP xERA 4.67
BABIP 0.319 Strand 0.688 Luck -0.03, Override 4.9
Matsuzaka,Daisuke: IP 28.7, ERA 3.14, FIP 4.38, xFIP 4.61, xERA 2.77, Hybrid 3.84, BP xERA 3.9
BABIP 0.214 Strand 0.818 Luck 0.2, Override 3.8
Garland has three strikeouts in 24 innings. Yuck. Matsuzaka cut down his walks his last time out, letting just two Rangers get free passes. Not sure how the Angels’ free swinging ways will play out against him, but it will be an early preview for the playoffs.
Mendoza,Luis: IP 8, ERA 9, FIP 6.96, xFIP 7.13, xERA 8.41, Hybrid 5.36, BP xERA 5.74
BABIP 0.387 Strand 0.51 Luck -0.28, Override 5
Rogers,Kenny: IP 21.3, ERA 6.33, FIP 5.29, xFIP 5.96, xERA 5.08, Hybrid 5.08, BP xERA 4.78
BABIP 0.288 Strand 0.602 Luck -0.09, Override 4.9
Mendoza is supposed to be a ground ball pitcher, but he’s not getting many ground balls. He’s also walking too many batters; six walks in just 8 innings so far. Rogers too is struggling in this department. He has a 12/9 walk to strikeout ratio so far this season.
Halladay,Roy: IP 33, ERA 3.27, FIP 3.84, xFIP 3.1, xERA 3.48, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 3.99
BABIP 0.292 Strand 0.802 Luck 0.11, Override 3.8
Hammel,Jason: IP 19, ERA 4.26, FIP 3.03, xFIP 3.65, xERA 3.72, Hybrid 4.81, BP xERA 4.78
BABIP 0.295 Strand 0.664 Luck -0.03, Override 4.8
Carmona,Fausto: IP 23, ERA 1.96, FIP 4.82, xFIP 5.56, xERA 3.78, Hybrid 4.17, BP xERA 4.15
BABIP 0.246 Strand 0.838 Luck 0.19, Override 4.3
Tomko,Brett: IP 20, ERA 3.6, FIP 4.08, xFIP 4.09, xERA 3.5, Hybrid 5.07, BP xERA 4.92
BABIP 0.258 Strand 0.743 Luck 0.09, Override 4.9
I don’t think Carmona has to worry about his control problems with Kansas City…those guys have never seen a pitch they don’t think they can hit. Tomko, making his first start last week against a team not named the Twins, pitched OK against the Angels. I think it is all downhill from here however.
Mussina,Mike: IP 20.3, ERA 5.75, FIP 6.48, xFIP 4.63, xERA 4.97, Hybrid 4.97, BP xERA 4.56
BABIP 0.294 Strand 0.708 Luck 0.01, Override 4.8
Vazquez,Javier: IP 25.3, ERA 3.2, FIP 1.9, xFIP 3.55, xERA 3.23, Hybrid 3.94, BP xERA 3.7
BABIP 0.324 Strand 0.71 Luck -0.01, Override 3.7
Baby Boss isn’t happy with his Moose. Mussina has gotten lit up by Boston his last two starts, and has allowed 5 home runs in just 20 innings. Playing the White Sox at the Cell isn’t going to help that problem either. Vazquez has been outstanding so far this season; the BABIP and strand rates show it isn’t a fluke.
Bonser,Boof: IP 23, ERA 4.7, FIP 3.69, xFIP 4.6, xERA 4.35, Hybrid 4.93, BP xERA 4.77
BABIP 0.296 Strand 0.588 Luck -0.11, Override 4.4
Gaudin,Chad: IP 17, ERA 4.76, FIP 4.08, xFIP 4.32, xERA 3.81, Hybrid 4.37, BP xERA 4.44
BABIP 0.292 Strand 0.594 Luck -0.1, Override 5
Two of Boof’s four starts have come against Kansas City; you have to worry about his decent numbers being tainted by less than quality competition. If you throw out the KC starts, Bonser has allowed 11 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings pitched. We can play “subtract the Royals” with Gaudin as well. If we take away his last start against KC, Gaudin has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 10 innings pitched. He did get 8 strikeouts against the Royals, and that could be an indication that his health problems are starting to clear up.
Cabrera,Daniel: IP 22.7, ERA 5.16, FIP 6.57, xFIP 5.14, xERA 4.74, Hybrid 4.47, BP xERA 4.47
BABIP 0.239 Strand 0.807 Luck 0.17, Override 5
Silva,Carlos: IP 29, ERA 2.79, FIP 4.4, xFIP 4.71, xERA 3.42, Hybrid 5.38, BP xERA 4.96
BABIP 0.255 Strand 0.839 Luck 0.18, Override 4.7
Cabrera has been solid in his last two starts, keeping his walks to a minimum and getting a ton of groundballs. That’s why Baltimore keeps putting up with him; he has stretches like this where he looks like he finally puts it all together. His strikeout numbers are down as well; maybe he’s sacrificing some stuff for control. Or maybe it is just two starts. Silva is pitching well so far this year, but his FIP numbers show that he is going to regress some.
