HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Florida +1.45 over MILWAUKEE
The Marlins continue to compete hard with a 14-10 record, which is good for one of the best records in the majors. A look at Ricky Nolasco’s stat line shows that he’s 1-2 with a 5.91 record but pay no attention to that. A closer look reveals that in five appearances (the first two out of the pen), Nolasco has been extremely effective in four of them. His one bad outing has caused his numbers to balloon but this guy is getting stronger and better with each outing. Elbow pain limited him to just 21.1 innings last year, which is exactly the same number of innings he’s thrown this year. Nolasco has a big time fastball and an assortment of other pitches to go along with it. Let’s not forget that he won 11 games in ’06 and had terrific strikeout numbers to go along with it. The man can pitch and he definitely appears healthy again. Meanwhile, Manny Parra has not looked sharp at all. He hasn’t answered the bell for the fifth inning in two of his four starts and has already been tagged for 23 hits and 11 earned runs in just 18.1 frames. Parra has not lasted past the fifth inning in any of his starts while the league has hit .307 off him. Parra has the stuff to be a major-leaguer, however, his durability is in question, as is his confidence and the Brewers pen certainly can’t be trusted to pick him up. Overlay. Play: Florida +1.45 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Baltimore +1.18 over CHICAGO
Jeremy Guthrie is one of the unluckiest pitchers in the business but that’s not going to deter us from taking back a tag on him here. Guthrie is 0-2 but almost always pitches into the seventh inning and has done so in three of his last four starts and the other one he went a full six innings. He’s been providing quality starts for the Orioles both last year and this year but does not have the W’s that he deserves. The Orioles are expected to come back down to earth at some point, however, what about the South Side? They may even be a bigger early season surprise then the O’s and the chances of them coming back down to earth sooner then the O’s is greater. For one, the White Sox are dead last in the AL in team batting average and now they’ve lost their best hitter in Jermaine Dye for a few games. Furthermore, Jose Contreras has allowed four or more runs in three of four starts and both of his losses this season have come at U.S. Cellular Field. The Orioles have won three of four and six of nine and they absolutely are not at a disadvantage in this one. Play: Baltimore +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
