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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Baltimore +1.43 over CHICAGO(2:05PM)
Daniel Cabrera is an enigma. Every manager and/or player will agree he’s one of the toughest pitchers to hit and he has some of the nastiest stuff in the business. Yet Cabrera struggles year after year after year. Having said that, he could be on his way to a monster year after a brutal opener in which he was tagged for six runs in four innings by the D-Rays and then he was just slightly better in his second start of the year in which the Mariners scored four times in six frames. Since then and covering three starts, Cabrera has been lights out. Against Tampa, the Yanks and Mariners again, Cabrera threw a combined 20.2 innings and allowed just 14 hits and five earned runs. He pitched into the seventh inning in all three games and did not allow two more then two earned runs in any of them. Even after a rough start the league is hitting just .229 off Cabrera and on the road that number drops 40 points to .189. It also doesn’t hurt that the White Sox team batting average is last in the AL. So, while Javier Vasquez is a decent starter this isn’t about wagering against him, although his numbers against the Orioles are not so good (5.24 ERA in 11 career starts against). This choice is about taking back a tag on Cabrera and it’s also worth noting that the Orioles are 5-0 in his starts this year. Play: Baltimore +1.43 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>ST. LOUIS –1 +1.03 over Cincinnati (Pinny)
So, the Reds have won two straight and have scored 20 runs in the process, huh? Well, that’s very nice, it truly is but that doesn’t change the fact that Bronson Arroyo and the Reds are about as appealing as jumping into bed with the bearded lady. The Reds offensive outburst came against Barry Zito yesterday and on Friday the Giants lost their starter in the first inning to a strained muscle and in his place came Brad Hennessey and his 12.00 ERA. The point is, the Reds enjoyed two days of batting practice, as the pitchers they faced would have trouble retiring Bob Barker. Now the Reds will face Todd Wellemeyer and this guy has been sharp. He’s allowed just 25 hits in 31 innings and has 31 k’s to go along with it. He’s also been brilliant in two home starts. Bronson Arroyo took a big step backward last season from his breakout 2006; his ERA and WHIP rose quite a bit, while his K rate dropped and this year he’s taken 10 steps backwards. His confidence is shot and that’s what a 7.56 ERA will do to it. He’s allowed 27 hits in 25 innings for a batting average against of .352. Arroyo has always been prone to giving up the long ball and this year is no different, as he’s already surrendered six of them. The Reds are a bad team against good pitchers while the Cardinals are tough as shoe leather in their own barn and should have very little trouble disposing of Dusty Faker *he really is the worst manager in the game) and the Reds in this one. Play: St. Louis –1 +1.03 (Risking 2 units). <o
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