SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Philadelphia (42-44, 45-38-3 ATS) at (2) Detroit (61-25, 47-38-1 ATS)
Having alternated wins and losses in the first four games of this best-of-7 series, the Pistons and 76ers now head back to Motown for a critical Game 5 at the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Detroit suffered an ugly 20-point loss in Philadelphia in Game 3, then came out in Sunday’s Game 4 and trailed by 10 points at halftime. But the heavily favored Pistons turned up the intensity in the second half and outscored the 76ers 67-38 en route to a 93-84 victory, cashing as a 5½-point road chalk.
The Pistons are now 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games, while Philadelphia is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight. However, Detroit’s last three losses have come against the 76ers, while each of Philly’s last three wins have come against the Pistons. Finally, the straight-up winner is 12-0 ATS in each of the teams’ last 12 games.
These squads have split their eight meetings this season, with Philly holding a slim 5-3 ATS edge (4-2 ATS in the last six). However, the winner has covered in each of the last seven head-to-head battles. Also, with Detroit’s Game 4 win, the favorite in this rivalry is on a 14-7-1 ATS roll, and the road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 matchups, with the Sixers cashing in four of their last five visits to Motown.
Detroit, which has lost six of its last eight playoff games, is in the midst of negative ATS trends of 7-12-1 in the playoffs (2-8 ATS last 10), 7-17-1 as a playoff chalk (2-8 last 10 as a playoff favorite) and 4-8 against the Atlantic Division. On the bright side, Flip Saunders’ squad 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one day of rest.
Philadelphia remains on positive ATS runs of 15-8-1 as a pup, 7-3 as a road underdog, 10-4 on the road, 11-4-1 after a SU loss and 9-4 against the Central Division. However, the Sixers are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as an underdog, 6-12-3 ATS in their last 21 in conference quarterfinal games and 2-6 against the Eastern Conference.
The under is 3-1 in this playoff series, 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall, 12-4 in Detroit’s last 16 overall (4-1 last four), 14-3 in Detroit’s last 17 against the Eastern Conference, 8-2 in Detroit’s last 10 as a favorite, 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six against the Central Division and 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six first-round playoff games. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 5-1 for the 76ers on the road, 4-0 for the 76ers on Tuesdays and 11-3 for the Pistons on Tuesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Dallas (52-34, 36-46-4 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (59-27, 52-32-2 ATS)
The Hornets attempt to put the finishing touches on their first-round playoff series against the Mavericks when this battle resumes back in the Big Easy.
New Orleans bounced back from a 10-point road loss in Game 3 with a 97-84 rout of the Mavericks on Sunday, cashing as a 4½-point underdog as the Hornets won in Dallas for the first time in more than 10 years. Now Byron Scott’s team returns home, where it is 4-0 against the Mavs this year, including a 104-92 win in Game 1 and a 127-103 beat-down in Game 2.
Dallas, which got outshot 50 percent to 36 percent in Sunday’s defeat, is now mired in slumps of 2-5 SU and 2-7 ATS going back to the regular season. Also, including the two losses at New Orleans in this series, Avery Johnson’s club has dropped four consecutive road games both SU and ATS. What’s more, since taking a 2-0 series lead in the 2006 NBA Finals against Miami, the Mavs are 2-11 SU in the playoffs (4-9 ATS), including eight straight road playoff defeats (2-6 ATS).
The home team had won the first seven head-to-head meetings this season, going 7-0 ATS, before the Hornets’ upset victory in Game 4. Still, the favorite is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 series clashes (6-1 ATS in the last seven). Finally, the past six battles between these division rivals have been double-digit routs.
The Hornets, who sported the league’s third-best ATS mark in the regular season, are on a multitude of positive pointspread streaks, including 41-19-1 overall, 7-2 in conference quarterfinal games, 10-4 against the Western Conference, 7-1-1 on Tuesdays, 45-22 at home, 19-7 as a home favorite and 19-9-1 when going on one day of rest. On the downside, New Orleans is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following a spread-cover.
Dallas is 38-18-1 in its last 57 against Southwest Division rivals and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as a playoff underdog. Conversely, the Mavs are stuck in ATS funks of 2-5 as an underdog (all on the road), 0-4 on the road, 0-5 on Tuesdays, 1-7 in first-round postseason action and 3-9 after a non-cover.
The under was the play in the last two contests in Dallas, but the over hit in the first two games of this series in New Orleans and is 4-0 in the four meetings in New Orleans this season. The over is also on runs of 11-1 for the Mavericks as an underdog, 9-4 for the Mavericks on the road, 17-6-2 for the Hornets as a home chalk and 11-4-2 for the Hornets on Tuesdays. However, the under is 4-1 in the Mavs’ last five on one day of rest and 4-0 in New Orleans’ last four on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
(6) Phoenix (56-30, 41-42-3 ATS) at (3) San Antonio (59-27, 39-45-2)
Having staved off elimination with an impressive home victory on Sunday, the Suns once again face a win-or-go-home situation when they head back to Texas for Game 5 against the Spurs at the AT&T Center.
Phoenix opened the playoffs with a pair of heartbreaking losses in San Antonio, then came home on Friday night and got steamrolled 115-99 as a seven-point chalk, giving the team its first three-game losing streak of the season. But with their backs against the wall, the Suns came out swinging Sunday and scored a wire-to-wire 105-86 victory as a 3½-point home favorite. After watching the Spurs shoot 56 percent from the field in Game 3, Phoenix ratcheted up the defense and limited San Antonio to 39 percent shooting.
The Spurs, who saw a five-game overall winning streak and a nine-game playoff winning streak end with Sunday’s defeat, got 32 combined points from Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili after the trio went for 84 points in Game 3. Although San Antonio covered the spread in Games 1 and 3, it is still just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 contests (3-2 ATS at home).
On Sunday, the favorite cashed for just the second time in eight series meetings between these rivals this season. Overall, the teams have split the eight battles, with the winner going 7-1 ATS.
Despite their recent surge, the Spurs are in the midst of ATS funks of 2-5 against the Pacific Division, 2-7 after a SU defeat and 1-5 after a double-digit loss. On the positive end for San Antonio, it is on ATS streaks of 6-2 in first-round playoff games, 14-3-1 as a playoff chalk, 7-0 as a playoff favorite of five to 10½ points, 6-2 at home and 7-3 when playing on one day of rest.
The Suns are still on positive pointspread trends of 13-6-1 against the Western Conference and 7-2 on Tuesdays, but they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog and 1-7 ATS in their past eight after a spread-cover.
The under cashed in all four regular-season meetings between these squads, but the over was the play in the first three games of this playoff series before Game 4 stayed under the total. However, the over is still on runs of 8-1 for the Suns as a road underdog, 12-4 for the Suns as an underdog of five to 10½ points, 5-1 for the Suns in first-round playoff action, 4-1 for the Suns on Tuesdays, 6-1 for the Spurs overall, 4-0 for the Spurs as a favorite, 5-1 for the Spurs against the Pacific Division and 5-2 for the Spurs at home.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head playoff meetings in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
(4) Utah (57-29, 48-38 ATS) at (5) Houston (56-30, 49-35-2 ATS)
The Jazz head back to Houston looking to end the Rockets’ season for the second straight year when these teams clash at the Toyota Center in Game 5 of their first-round series.
Utah stole the first two games in Houston, then returned home for Game 3 on Thursday and suffered a last-second two-point loss. But the home team finally held serve on Saturday, with the Jazz pulling out an 86-82 victory despite going 0-for-14 from three-point range. However, the Rockets, who shot just 36.7 percent in Game 4, cashed as an 8½-point underdog, meaning the road team and underdog are both 4-0 ATS in this series.
When these two squared off in last year’s opening round of the postseason, the home team went 6-0 SU before the Jazz stole Game 7 in Houston. Including that Game 7 clincher, the road team is on 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (all as an underdog). However, Utah is still on an 8-3 ATS run against the Rockets (7-4 SU), winning four straight games in the Toyota Center and going 5-0 ATS in the last five in Houston.
Utah is still 9-3 SU and ATS in its last 12 overall. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) in their last seven overall, a downturn that comes on the heels of a 5-0 SU and ATS streak. Finally, the straight-up winner is 13-1 ATS in Houston’s last 14 contests, the lone exception coming Saturday.
The Rockets had failed to cover in seven straight playoff games (all against the Jazz) before getting the money in the last two. Still, Houston remains on pointspread slides of 0-4 as playoff favorite, 2-7 in first-round playoff games and 2-4 against the Northwest Division. On the bright side, Houston is on pointspread streaks of 27-12-1 overall, 16-6-1 at home, 20-6 after a spread-cover and 5-1 when playing on two days’ rest.
The Jazz remain on a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 overall, 25-10 against the Western Conference, 8-3 against the Southwest Division, 38-18-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog (all on the road) and 13-4 against the Southwest Division. However, they’re 7-16 ATS in their past 23 games played on two days’ rest.
The under is 3-1 in this playoff series, with the lone “over” barely hitting by 1½ points in Game 3. The under is also on runs for Houston of 7-2 overall, 12-3 against the Northwest Division, 9-4 in first-round playoff games, 6-0 at home and 4-0 on Tuesdays. Finally, for Utah, the under is on streaks of 12-4-1 against the Southwest Division, 4-1 on the road, 7-3 overall, 5-1 as an underdog and 16-7 in first-round playoff games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
