Horses have won from the outside post position before in this race..They can do it again..I've learned the hard way not to count anybody out in this race on a technicality. I remember when the so-called handicapping experts used to throw horses out automatically if their breeding added up to more than a 4.00 dosage index..Several horses have since broken that myth, and they've had to go back and rethink this statistic...I also wish they would go back to the one gate start. And cut the posts to 14 instead of 20. The best horse doesn't win this race half the time because they have to fight through traffic..It takes a few breaks to win the Derby..I would say if there is anything I look at the closest on the form it is the horses that run on or just off the pace, and are in fine form..They seem to be the type of horses lately who have had the most success in the Derby...Just my two cents. This is a tough race to cap.
KENTUCKY DERBY 134:
(PP, Horse, Jockey, CD M/L)
1. Cool Coal Man, J.Leparoux, 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, E.Coa, 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, R.Bejarano, 30-1
4. Court Vision, G.Gomez, 20-1
5. Eight Belles, G.Saez, 20-1
6. Z Fortune, R.Albarado, 15-1
7. Big Truck, J.Castellano, 50-1
8. Visionaire, J.Lezcano, 20-1
9. Pyro, S.Bridgmohan, 6-1
10. Colonel John, C. Nakatani, 4-1
11. Z Humor, R.Douglas, 30-1
12. Smooth Air, M.Cruz, 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, R.Migliore, 20-1
14. Monba, R.Dominguez, 15-1
15. Adriano, E.Prado, 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, C.Borel, 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, J.Velazquez, 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E.T.Baird, 20-1
19. Gayego, M.Smith, 15-1
20. Big Brown, K.Desormeaux, 3-1
(PP, Horse, Jockey, CD M/L)
1. Cool Coal Man, J.Leparoux, 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, E.Coa, 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, R.Bejarano, 30-1
4. Court Vision, G.Gomez, 20-1
5. Eight Belles, G.Saez, 20-1
6. Z Fortune, R.Albarado, 15-1
7. Big Truck, J.Castellano, 50-1
8. Visionaire, J.Lezcano, 20-1
9. Pyro, S.Bridgmohan, 6-1
10. Colonel John, C. Nakatani, 4-1
11. Z Humor, R.Douglas, 30-1
12. Smooth Air, M.Cruz, 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, R.Migliore, 20-1
14. Monba, R.Dominguez, 15-1
15. Adriano, E.Prado, 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, C.Borel, 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, J.Velazquez, 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E.T.Baird, 20-1
19. Gayego, M.Smith, 15-1
20. Big Brown, K.Desormeaux, 3-1
Very interesting comment by Randy Moss, he said that if you ran a straight line from gate 20 to the inside rail going into first turn you only have to make up 2 feet on inside horse. Not sure I buy that right now but I'm guessing he was saying if BigB. outgasses everyone else to the first turn and grabs rail, he was not at a huge disadvantage in the first place. hhmmmm... I don't know abut that. But still think a few horses will be gunning it out of the gate and may force BB to use alot of energy early but if he succeeds in grabbing rail around first turn he can relax a little. Don't be surprised if a couple of the 'no-shots', not necessarily early speed types,fly out of gate just so the don't lose sight of BB going into 2nd turn.
Well, there's only been 20 horses or more in the field 15 times in the history of the Derby. 10 out of the 15 of these there were exactly 20 horses in the field. So, winning 1 out of 15 is better than the expected value. I don't think you can just toss him, but we'll see what happens.
