[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MORE UNDER TEAMS THAN OVER TEAMS SO FAR IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You've probably noticed it's been a low scoring month in major league baseball. Sure, there are a handful of teams who are playing high scoring games, and some big name pitchers having trouble. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think how low scoring the season would be so far if Barry Zito and Matt Morris weren't pitching![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I was running through the Over/Under records for all 30 teams this morning, and the differences were very clear. Let me show you.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TEAMS WITH AT LEAST 5 MORE OVERS THAN UNDERS (thru Tues Night)
Pittsburgh: 18-8 to the Over
Arizona: 15-10-1 to the Over
Texas 15-10-2 to the Over[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TEAMS WITH AT LEAST 5 MORE UNDERS THAN OVERS (thru Tues Night)
NY Yankees: 8-19-1 to the Under
Atlanta: 9-17 to the Under
Baltimore: 9-17 to the Under
Kansas City: 9-17 to the Under
Toronto: 9-16-2 to the Under
Houston: 10-18 to the Under
Tampa Bay: 10-16 to the Under[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are more than twice as many teams on the second list than on the first. And, the margins are much bigger. If I had used a cut off if six games instead of five games, there would only be ONE team on the Over list! All seven teams on the Under list would still be there. So, the ratio is 7-3 for Unders to Overs with a cutoff of five games over .500. The ratio is 7-1 if you use a cutoff of six games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What's happening? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, I think the weather is a big part of it. Note that two of the Over teams play in the Southwest. It's been warm in Arizona and Texas. Arizona has a dome if it gets too hot. Those are great hitter's parks historically anyway. Arizona has a strong offense this year, while Texas has a horrible pitching staff (again). All of that could still only get those two teams to five games over .500 on the Overs![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pittsburgh had Matt Morris pitching on rotation until he was released. They're really the only true "outlier" in baseball right now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Also, it should be noted that four teams on the Under list are from the AL East. They've been playing a lot of games against each other. Many have been played in cool conditions even though Toronto and Tampa Bay have domes (optional in Toronto). That division alone has seen:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think there are other reasons that scoring is down across the board this year as well:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How can handicappers best take advantage of this Under period?[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MORE UNDER TEAMS THAN OVER TEAMS SO FAR IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You've probably noticed it's been a low scoring month in major league baseball. Sure, there are a handful of teams who are playing high scoring games, and some big name pitchers having trouble. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think how low scoring the season would be so far if Barry Zito and Matt Morris weren't pitching![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I was running through the Over/Under records for all 30 teams this morning, and the differences were very clear. Let me show you.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TEAMS WITH AT LEAST 5 MORE OVERS THAN UNDERS (thru Tues Night)
Pittsburgh: 18-8 to the Over
Arizona: 15-10-1 to the Over
Texas 15-10-2 to the Over[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TEAMS WITH AT LEAST 5 MORE UNDERS THAN OVERS (thru Tues Night)
NY Yankees: 8-19-1 to the Under
Atlanta: 9-17 to the Under
Baltimore: 9-17 to the Under
Kansas City: 9-17 to the Under
Toronto: 9-16-2 to the Under
Houston: 10-18 to the Under
Tampa Bay: 10-16 to the Under[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are more than twice as many teams on the second list than on the first. And, the margins are much bigger. If I had used a cut off if six games instead of five games, there would only be ONE team on the Over list! All seven teams on the Under list would still be there. So, the ratio is 7-3 for Unders to Overs with a cutoff of five games over .500. The ratio is 7-1 if you use a cutoff of six games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What's happening? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, I think the weather is a big part of it. Note that two of the Over teams play in the Southwest. It's been warm in Arizona and Texas. Arizona has a dome if it gets too hot. Those are great hitter's parks historically anyway. Arizona has a strong offense this year, while Texas has a horrible pitching staff (again). All of that could still only get those two teams to five games over .500 on the Overs![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pittsburgh had Matt Morris pitching on rotation until he was released. They're really the only true "outlier" in baseball right now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Also, it should be noted that four teams on the Under list are from the AL East. They've been playing a lot of games against each other. Many have been played in cool conditions even though Toronto and Tampa Bay have domes (optional in Toronto). That division alone has seen:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Better pitching from Tampa Bay and Baltimore than expected.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Worse offense from Tampa Bay and Toronto than expected. Actually, I should say MUCH worse offense. Toronto has been a disaster. Tampa Bay was supposed to have more pop than they've shown.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many injuries to the Yankees, which has hurt an offense that's usually a slow starter anyway. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think there are other reasons that scoring is down across the board this year as well:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Steroids and HGH are supposedly out of baseball. Even if some players are still trying to cheat, that number is very low. Home runs are down because fastballs aren't as fast and hitters aren't as strong. Scoring is down because the power has greatly been reduced in the game. Note that steroid users are also known to be injury prone. It shouldn't be a surprise that many of the older guys are having trouble getting cranked up to their recent form thus far. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's been cool across most of the country. Really, everywhere but the Southwest and Southern California has seen lower than normal temperatures through most of April. Hitters have trouble getting things going in cool conditions. And, if we're talking about veterans feeling aches and pains that they're not used to feeling, it magnifies the problem. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pitchers with an edge when chemicals were juicing offenses REALLY have an edge now! You're seeing a lot of very low scoring games when decent pitchers are throwing. Even teams who are playing near .500 in terms of their totals are seeing some extremes. They go Over with the back of their rotation, but play VERY low scoring games when the top pitchers are on the mound. We've had a lot of shutouts so far, as well as a lot of 2-1, 3-2, or 4-1 type games. Some thought those days were gone in the American League. Tuesday Night alone saw a 1-0 and a 2-0 game. Another ended 3-1. Another was 2-2 heading to the ninth before a bullpen imploded. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How can handicappers best take advantage of this Under period?[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Keep monitoring the injury reports so you know which key players won't be on the field.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Take note of how many cleanup hitters or other sluggers are off to horrible starts this year in both leagues. Some of these batting averages are incredibly low. As long as you see those slumps continuing, keep betting the Unders. When you see some of these guys start to hit, it will be time to change course.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Study the weather reports so you know what game time temperatures are. 70's are fairly neutral. If you see 69 or less, you should be thinking about the Unders. If you see 80 or more, you should be thinking about the Overs. Adjust for the pitchers and offense of course. Those are just general guidelines to follow. I think there have been a lot more cold weather games than the public has realized. I'm talking games in the 50's and lower. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Note the Over/Under trends of each home ballpark. You might see some things you were missing otherwise.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Remember that get-away day games often go Under because a manager will rest a star player on a day game after a night game. The teams are often too focused on the plane they have to catch later as well. Travel is a hassle no matter how much you're paid to do it![/FONT]
