Service Plays Sunday 5/4/08

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OUR VERY OWN:

Big Bookie Sunday
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Not Going To Be Around But Looks Like I Will Need These
Boston -14
Jazz +7
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JEFFERSONSPORTS
NBA
BOSTON UNDER 190--"one of my favorite totals I have seen in a while."

Handicappers Paradise

Josh Dean

MLB PICK


A.P. System (MLB)
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Lets cash it!

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Today's Play: Colorado -111
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System Record: 11-0
Units to bet today: 2
TOTAL UNITS PROFIT: +12.6


NHL PICK


A.P. Hockey Playoff System
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Lets snag this bet B tonight

1*=[A] 2*=

Up to 2 wagers=1 System Bet

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Today's Play: NYR/Pitt UNDER 5.5
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System Record: 10-2
Total Profit: +10.0

TONY MATTHEWS
NBA - 20 Stars: Utah Jazz +7.5 (-110)

Vic Monte

3-2 This Week +$135

100* Inside Info Selection - Brewers -$150

Ben Sheet's is the #2 ranked Pitcher in the National League with a 5-0 team record +$557. Sheets has been untouchable during the day going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA Striking out 20 batters and Walking only 4. Ben Sheets is also a Perfect 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in road starts this season. More impressive numbers on Sheets is another perfect 3-0 mark with a 3.06 ERA in his last 3 starts entering play this afternoon. Do you see what I am getting at yet? A Huge pitching advantage for the Brewers. The Astros will counter with right handed Chris Sampson. Sampson ranks #47 among National League starters as the Astros are 2-3 -$30 in Sampson's 5 starts this season...Chris Sampson has been just terrible over his last 3 starts, A 1-2 record with an ERA of 9.75. Sampson has allowed 21 hits and 5 walks in his last 12 innings of service. That's an OPS of .458. That is way to many base runners for this Brewers aggressive line up. The Brewers lost to the Astros last night and are in perfect position to "Bounce Back" with there Ace on the mound. It is also important to note that although the Brewers struggled on the road in 2007, they have played much better and much more profitable in 2008 with a 9-9 +$217 record. The Brewers are also 5-1 in there last 6 games as a road favorite. Want more? As if I didn't stress my point that today's investment is based on Ben Sheet's performance, I must also mention that the Brewers are a perfect 7-0 in Sheets last 7 road starts. With all the facts stated were getting Sheets at a discount price of $150... 100* Inside Info Selection - Brewers

VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Los Angeles Lakers - 7.5 over Utah Jazz


Los Angeles went 3-1 vs. the Jazz this season including a 106-95 win at Utah on 03/20, which snapped Utah's 19 game home win streak. Lakers have won and covered last four home meetings.

Armvin Sports

Mlb
5/4/2008 Pittsburgh Pirates -101

HONDO

May 4, 2008 -- Hondo took the big ugly red plunge yesterday, suffering a triple-flusher with the Metamucils, Cards and Adriano to put the deficit at 5 jensens.

Today, in honor of Big Brown, Mr. Aitch is taking Sheets - 10 units on the Brewers to pour it on against the 'Stros.

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

Sunday: Take the NY METS w/ Santana -110 over Arizona

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with Colonel John ($25 win and place) in the Derby yesterday.

Today it's the New York Rangers. The surplus is 515 sirignanos.

BRIAN GABRIELLE

Take Denny Hamlin (+400), 1/6th unit. Saturday night the Sprint Cup set heads to Richmond, which is Hamlin's home track. Dean Denny won the pole for this race, and launches as the favorite, which is convenient, because all week he's been my pick to win. There's some overlap between Phoenix and Richmond -- both are short tracks, both are relatively flat -- and Hamlin probably had the best car at Phoenix at the end of the night, but lost on fuel mileage. Hamlin also finished third and sixth at Richmond last season. I think he gives you his second win of '08 Saturday night. Take Jimmie Johnson (+550), 1/6th unit. But J.J. should have something to say about that. He won Phoenix a few weeks back (albeit thanks to fuel mileage), and he also swept Richmond in the Car of Tomorrow last season. Johnson "only" qualified 12th, but should have a good enough car to contend for yet another win at this short track that drives like a super-speedway. Take Mark Martin (+1200), 1/6th unit. Martin's only a part-time driver in the No. 8, but he was really strong at Phoenix a few weeks ago. In fact, if most of the field hadn't needed a late pit just for fuel, Martin probably would've won that event, because he was leading very late. Remember also that he's got 23 top-10 finishes in his career at Richmond, and that he qualified on the outside pole for this race. I expect to see him hanging near the front for a good long while.



At this week?s Wachovia Championship, take Kevin Na(125-1), 1/6 unit: I?m sticking with the youngster.The last two tournaments he?s been in contention going into the weekend before a bad Saturday at the Verizon and a bad Sunday last week pulled him out. It?s really just a matter of stringing together four good rounds.How?s that for insight? Seriously, though, with talented younger players this simple concept is more acute. Once they get it and/or realize they can do it,wins are possible. He was 100-1 last week. I guess the T50 bounced the odds that much. I?ll take my chances at 125-1. Take Zach Johnson (66-1), 1/6 unit: Johnson should do well at Quail Hollow, where finding the fairways is very difficult. Other accurate drivers like Jim Fury have done well on the tight layout. Johnson has played OK this year, though he?s only got one top-10 in ten tourneys. Take Luke Donald (33-1), 1/6 unit: Donald is usually an accurate driver. This year, he?s dropped off in that category considerably. (This year he?s hitting 58.6%; last year he hit 68.2%.) It hasn?t ruined his game, though, as he?s got two top-10s in only six Tour events. Since the Wachovia started at Quail Hollow in 2003, Donald?s missed the cut a couple times,withdrawn and finished T15. Mixed bag, you could say.

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays May 4 2008 1:05PM
Prediction: under

Reason: The under is 8-3 in the White Sox last 11 games as an underdog. Chicago has played the under in 5 straight games. The under is 17-6-1 in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Toronto has played the under in their last 5 home games. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Halladay's last 4 home starts. The last 6 meetings overall between the clubs have played under the total. The under is 5-1 in Chicago's last 6 trips to Toronto. Play the under.

Arthur Ralph Comp

Ny Mets

Thanks for the service play posts!

Thanks for posting all the service plays!! A rough day on the board for me yesterday but today is a new day so let's find some winners!

Have a huge day!

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MLB

NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (15-13) at Arizona (21-9)
The Mets try to continue their dominance of the DBacks and win this three-game series when they send southpaw Johan Santana (3-2, 3.05 ERA) to the mound to face Arizona?s Dan Haren (4-1, 3.13) at Chase Field. Arizona bounced back from Friday?s 7-2 loss in the series opener and scored a 10-4 victory on Saturday. Despite that result, New York is still 21-7 in the last 28 meetings with the Diamondbacks and 14-3 in the last 17 outings in the Arizona desert. Arizona, which hasn?t lost two in a row since losing the second and third games of this season, has alternated wins and losses in its last five outings. The DBacks are on streaks of 37-17 at Chase Field (12-4 this season), 8-2 at home against lefties, 35-16 overall against southpaws, 21-7 against the N.L. East.
The Mets have won four of their last six, but they?ve alternated wins and losses in their last five contests on the road, where they are 6-8 for the season. Santana is 3-1 on the highway this season with a 2.57 ERA and the Mets have won his last three overall, including Tuesday when he held the Pirates to two runs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-4 victory. In two career starts against Arizona (both with the Twins, Santana has allowed a total of one run on six hits in 16 innings. Haren has been perfect in front of the home fans, going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA, including Monday?s 5-3 win over the Astros when he allowed three runs on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. Prior to that outing Haren hadn?t allowed more than one earned run at Chase Field. In his lone career start against the Mets, Haren allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win for the A?s in 2005. The over is 5-1 in Santana?s six outings in a Mets uniform and 4-1-1 in Haren?s six starts as a DBack. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight series matchups, 9-3 in Arizona?s last 12 Sunday games and 16-6-2 in the Mets? last 24 against winning teams. However, the over is 14-6-1 in New York?s last 21 road games, 6-2-1 in its last nine overall, 8-3-2 in the DBacks? last 13 home games and 5-2 in Arizona?s last seven when facing a southpaw.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Chicago Cubs (18-12) at St. Louis (19-12)
The Cubs try to take two of three in this weekend series at Busch Stadium when Jason Marquis (1-1, 4.45 ERA) returns to the mound opposite the Cardinals? Todd Wellemeyer (2-1, 4.14) in a nationally televised affair. Chicago scored a 9-3 victory on Saturday after dropping Friday?s contest 5-3 in 11 innings. The Cardinals are now 5-2 in their last seven (all at home) and 13-7 at Busch Stadium this season. Also, the Redbirds are 5-2 in their last seven against Central Division foes.
The Cubs have followed up a six-game winning streak by going 3-6 in their last nine, and they?re just 7-6 on the road. On the bright side, Lou Piniella?s club is on positive runs of 17-9 overall, 9-4 as a road underdog and 25-10 against Central Division foes. The Cubs went 11-5 against the Cardinals last season, including winning seven of nine in St. Louis.
Marquis was roughed up in his last outing when he allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-7 home loss to the Brewers. In his two road outings this season (both no-decisions), Marquis has given up four runs on 12 hits in 12 innings (3.00 ERA). Against the Cardinals last season, Marquis made four starts with the Cubs going 3-1, including 2-1 at Busch Stadium. He held the Cardinals to a total of four earned in three of the four starts, with the lone bad outing (six earned runs in five innings) coming in a July 26 start in St. Louis. He ended up with a 3.60 ERA versus the Redbirds in 2007. Wellemeyer has been feast or famine in six starts for St. Louis, giving up four earned runs or more in three starts, but limiting the opposition to two runs or less in the other three. He?s allowed an identical four runs on seven hits in six innings in his last two, a 7-4 loss in Pittsburgh on April 23 and a 4-3 home loss to the Reds on Monday.
The Cubs are 4-1 in Marquis? last five outings against N.L. Central Division squads, but just 1-4 in his last five against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile the Cardinals are 12-5 in Wellemeyer?s last 17 starts and 7-3 with him on the hill at home. The over is 4-1 in Marquis? five starts this season, 4-1 in his five career outings against St. Louis, 6-1 in his last seven starts overall and 4-0 against N.L. Central Division teams. However the under is 6-2 in his last eight starts on the highway. Also, the over is 4-2 in Wellemeyer?s six outings this season (2-1 in St. Louis), but the under is 5-1 in his last six when facing Central Division foes. The under is 8-4-1 in the last 13 series meetings at Busch Stadium (1-1 this weekend) and 5-3-2 in the last 10 meetings overall. The under is on further streaks of 40-17-3 for Chicago on the road, 6-2-1 for the Cardinals overall and 5-2-1 for the Cardinals at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (16-14) at Boston (19-13)
It?s a battle of southpaws at Fenway Park when the Rays? Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.48 ERA in 2007) makes his season debut against the Red Sox Jon Lester (1-2, 4.31). Boston, which got swept in Tampa Bay last weekend, is looking to turn the trick on the Rays after crushing Tampa in the first two games of this series by scores of 7-3 and 12-4. Even with the two straight wins, the Red Sox are still just 4-6 in their last 10 games, but Terry Francona?s club is 13-5 at home in 2008 and 40-17 in its last 57 at Fenway dating to last season. Also, the Sox are 15-5 in Lester?s last 20 trips to the mound, including 7-1 against A.L. East foes, 4-1 in his last five on Sundays and 6-2 in his last eight at home. Tampa Bay is still on an 8-3 run, all against A.L. East opponents. However, the Rays are now 6-7 on the road this season after going 32-86 in their previous 118 on the highway. With Kazmir on the hill, they are on streaks of 12-5 against winning teams, 4-1 on Sundays and 4-1 on the highway but just 2-5 against A.L. East foes. Going back to the end of last season, Tampa has won four of six from Boston, but the Red Sox are still 43-10 in the last 53 meetings overall and 94-43 in the last 137 clashes at Fenway Park.
Kazmir is coming off an elbow injury that delayed the start to his season, but he should take the mound with confidence today as has a 2.66 ERA in 17 career starts against Boston, although he?s just 6-5 in those contests. Last year in six starts against Boston, he went 1-3 despite a 2.78 ERA. In three of those outings covering 19 innings, Kazmir didn?t allow a single run, and in three starts at Fenway, he surrendered just three earned runs in 19 innings, but Tampa Bay went just 1-2. Lester was outstanding in his last outing Tuesday, blanking the Blue Jays on one hit over eight innings, but he got a no-decision as Boston prevailed 1-0, scoring in the bottom of the ninth. Even with that effort, Lester is just 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season. The Red Sox were 4-0 in Lester?s outings against Tampa Bay last season, but Lester allowed at least four earned runs in three of the four and finished with a 5.56 ERA against the Rays.
The under is 7-3 in Kazmir?s last 10 starts against the Red Sox, 4-1 in his last five against them at Fenway and is 6-1 in Lester?s seven outings this season. The under is also 7-1-1 in Kazmir?s last nine versus winning teams, 4-1-1 in his last six on the road and 7-1 in Lester?s last eight overall. Also, even though the first two games in this series have topped the total, the under remains 7-3 in Tampa Bay?s last 10 overall, 6-2 in Boston?s last eight overall and 4-2 in the last six series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Big Al - 3* - Lakers

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(8) Atlanta (40-48, 40-47-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (69-19, 55-31-2 ATS)
After pulling off yet another stunning upset at home on Friday, the Hawks head back north to Boston looking to complete the biggest upset in NBA playoff history when they battle the Celtics in a decisive Game 7.
Atlanta, which is in the playoffs for the first time since 1999, entered this first-round series against the NBA?s best team as an overwhelming underdog, then proceeded to suffer two humiliating double-digit losses in the first two games. But the Hawks have rebounded to win three of the last four ? all at home ? including Friday?s come-from-behind 103-100 victory as a nine-point underdog. They fell behind by 12 points after the first quarter and outscored Boston 24-18 in the fourth quarter to steal the win. Despite Friday?s defeat, Boston is still 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 games dating to the regular season, while the Hawks are just 5-8 SU and ATS in their last 13, including a current 3-6 SU and ATS slide. The straight-up winner is 29-1 ATS in Boston?s last 30 games, including 11-0 ATS in the last 11, and the winner has cashed in each of Atlanta?s last 13 contests. Boston still has a 6-3 advantage against Atlanta this year (5-4 ATS), with all six wins coming by double digits. In fact, the Celtics? three wins in this series have come by margins of 23, 19 and 25 points, respectively. The home team has cashed in nine of the last 11 clashes in this rivalry, going 6-0 SU and ATS in this series. Finally, Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last five home starts against Atlanta. The Celtics, who had the league?s best regular-season ATS mark, are on a 13-5 ATS run going back to the regular season and are on further positive pointspread streaks of 22-8 overall, 8-2 on one day of rest, 9-0 overall at the Garden, 7-0 at home against teams with a losing road mark, 13-6 after a SU loss and 41-20-2 against teams with a losing overall record. However, they?re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after giving up 100 points or more in the previous contest. The Hawks are still on ATS slides of 1-5 on the road (0-4 last four), 11-25 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-6 after a spread-cover. The one positive: They?re 5-0 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in the previous outing. The first five meetings between these teams this year ? including Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series ? stayed under the total. However, since then, the over is on a 4-0 run, with Friday?s game flying over the 189-point posted price. The over is also on runs for Atlanta of 11-1 when playing on one day of rest, 10-4 against the Atlantic Division, 25-10 on Sundays, 11-3 following a SU win and 9-3 following a spread-cover. Conversely, for the Celtics, the under is still on streaks of 5-2 at home, 8-2 at home versus teams with a losing road record, 9-5 in first-round playoff games and 13-5 after scoring 100 or more points. Finally, the under is 12-2 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON


WESTERN CONFERENCE

(4) Utah (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (4-0 SU and ATS)
Less than 48 hours after finally dispatching of the pesky Rockets in six games, the Jazz head to Hollywood to begin their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series against the top-seeded Lakers. Utah turned on the jets in the second half Friday night against Houston, outscoring the Rockets 55-37 to cruise to a 113-91 Game 6 victory, cashing as a 7 ?-point home favorite to halt an 0-3 ATS slide. The Jazz, who made it all the way to the Western Conference finals last year, have advanced past the first round in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. The Lakers have been idle since Monday, when they completed a four-game first-round sweep of the Nuggets with a 107-101 road victory. Los Angeles got the cash as a four-point chalk, covering in all four games against Denver. The Lakers averaged 119.8 points per game in the series, while holding the high-scoring Nuggets to 101.5 ppg. Los Angeles went 3-1 SU and ATS against the Jazz this year, including two double-digit wins at home by margins of 14 and 10 points. The home team is 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, and the winner has cashed in each of the last 10 series battles. Going back to the regular season, the Lakers have won eight straight games, going 7-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS in the last five. L.A., which has scored at least 102 points in 14 straight games, has won eight in a row at Staples Center, going 4-0 ATS in the last four after failing to cash in its previous seven home contests. For the season, the Lakers are 32-11 in their building, but only 22-20 ATS. Utah is on a 13-5 roll (12-6 ATS), but Jerry Sloan?s squad is only 3-4 (4-3 ATS) on the highway during this stretch. Also, even though the Jazz won two of three games in Houston in the opening round, they?re still just 19-25 SU and ATS on the highway this year. L.A. is on pointspread streaks of 4-0 when playing on three or more days? rest, 4-0 in conference semifinal games, 5-0 against teams with a winning record and 14-4 when laying between 7 and 10? points. Meanwhile, the Jazz are on positive ATS runs of 10-4 overall, 39-19-1 against winning teams, 25-11 against the Western Conference, 14-6 against the Pacific Division, 7-2 after a spread-cover, 23-9 after a double-digit victory and 6-2 when playing on one day of rest. The over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this rivalry, including 6-1 in the last seven clashes at Staples Center. Furthermore, the over is on runs of 6-2 for the Lakers on Sundays, 4-1 for the Jazz on Sundays and 20-6 for the Jazz against the Pacific Division. On the other hand, the under is 6-1 in Utah?s last seven road games, 4-2 for the Jazz in the playoffs this year (3-0 on the road) and 3-0 for the Lakers overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE L.A. LAKERS and OVER
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2-Minute Warning (Hornets covered yesterday)

Los Angeles Lakers

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Atlanta at Boston (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -14.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)


Talk about the Tale of Two Cities. This series has been a contrast in wills, home and away. The Hawks have surprised everyone taking the Celtics three straight at home, but have not been able to muster a challenge on the road. So why should things be different today? The Celtics just don't play with anywhere near the defensive intensity on the road, as they do at the Garden. The Hawks produced an average of 100+ at home, while they haven't gotten past 85 in Boston, and that is now 10 straight for the Celtics opponents at home under 100. As much as this looks like a stroy to see the Hawks in a game 7, consider this. The Celtics last 11 on the road have resulted in a 6-5 record with not a single win that would cover this pointspread. By contrast, their last 11 wins at home have been by an average margin of 20.6 ppg! Ten of those 11 cover this pointspread, and the last seven teams have scored an average of just 80.3 ppg! It's a Garden Party!


Game: Utah at Los Angeles Lakers (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Utah +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 213 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Lakers cruised past the Nuggets in four. They aren't facing the Nuggets today. Sure, LA is the better team on the court today. But, Utah is a much, much better team than the Nuggets. Denver played no defense and had a history all season of crumbling against good opposition. Utah is more talented, more committed to defense, and deeper. They struggled a bit with Houston but we think that helps them here vs. a Lakers team that has yet to be challenged. After that series sweep and an MVP award for Kobe, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers a bit overconfident. Utah struggled on the road for most of the season but at the end of the year, they put that behind them. They held the Rockets to 88 ppg and they should have much more success than Denver at slowing down the Lakers. The Jazz are 29-14 ATS this year vs. winning teams (20-6 in their last 26). They thrive vs. big three-point shooting teams like LA (21-7 ATS vs. teams making 6+ threes per game. They can also play in shootouts as they are 34-23 ATS this season in games with a total of 200 or more. The Jazz lost to Los Angeles 106-95 at home in March and they are 16-5 ATS this season seeking revenge. We expect a focused and deep Utah team to keep this game closer than this large spread. We also like the UNDER. As mentioned earlier, these teams combined for just 201 points in their last matchup and this being the playoffs, we expect heightened intensity. Utah knows their shot here is to keep this from getting too high scoring and they will play accordingly. The Jazz this season are 26-16 UNDER vs. teams that attempt 18+ three pointers per game. They are also 15-4 UNDER in the first game of a playoff series under Jerry Sloan. Sloan will bring the defense. We like the Jazz and the UNDER.


Game: Utah at Los Angeles Lakers (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 105.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

We also like the first-half UNDER for many of the same reasons. Los Angeles went off vs. Denver in their opening round offensively. But the Jazz will provide a tougher defensive test. In their series with the Rockets, the Jazz games averaged 89.2 ppg in the first half. The last 25 times these two teams have met in LA, 19 have gone UNDER in the first half. On the road, Utah is 27-17 UNDER in the first half this season. They are also 26-12 UNDER off a home win (18-9 if the win was by double-digits). This line is very high for a first-half and we'll take it to go UNDER.
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