anyone know the stats on just betting the spread on every favorite

jonesinforlocks · May 5, 2008

Hi, anyone know what the % is for just betting the favorite on the spread in any sport. Just curious, like for example what was the % in baseball last year of the favorite covering the spread. Thanks Jimmy%^_

billhill999 · May 5, 2008

I don't know the exact number, but I do know it's not profitalbe in bases to play the favorite every game on the ML.

jonesinforlocks · May 5, 2008

I knew not on the ml just wondering on the actual spread

Mauneau733 · May 5, 2008

There's a run line on bases, which is simply betting a team will win by -1.5 or vice versa (so you're saying they will win by two runs or more). But there's not a spread like in football or basketball, because the scores just aren't as high.

Betting a +1.5 is not recommended, as you're basically saying a team will lose by exactly one run, and paying extra for it in the process. If you think a team will win, bet the ML. If you think they might lose by a run, don't waste your money.

Dsethi (I believe) had an interesting formula for betting -1 lines by betting some on the ML and some on the run line, though I am far from qualified to try to explain it at this time.

sportmojo · May 5, 2008

Yeah you DO NOT want to bet straight up moneyline on every fav in baseball.

jonesinforlocks · May 5, 2008

sorry I meant the -1.5 run line just betting it on every favorite,

krk1030 · May 5, 2008

If you bet every game one way, you will lose from the juice. If it was profitable people would do it. They really split right at 50% for spreads in football/basketball.

MackDonald · May 5, 2008

Very "tough" odds.

jonesinforlocks · May 6, 2008

I understand if you picked 50% you would lose because of vig, but taking the -1.5 runline everytime pays way more than even money in most cases, +140, +130, +170 etc.... looks like you could hit 45% and still make money?

99steak · May 6, 2008

Mauneau733 said:
Betting a +1.5 is not recommended, as you're basically saying a team will lose by exactly one run, and paying extra for it in the process. If you think a team will win, bet the ML. If you think they might lose by a run, don't waste your money.

you are wrong. when you are betting +1.5 you are betting saying the team will win and the extra you pay is to include 1 run loss as a winning bet.

but i agree it is not good to bet this all the time, but there are occassions where +1.5 is very valuable. especially when the home team is favoured with their number one ace pitching....or certain games in pitchers parks...like seatle vs laa angels....san fran vs san diego...etc...when u see the home team favoured big in those match ups, it is valuable to take the road +1.5.

Mauneau733 · May 6, 2008

99steak said:
you are wrong. when you are betting +1.5 you are betting saying the team will win and the extra you pay is to include 1 run loss as a winning bet.

I understand what a -1.5 bet is of course. My point simply that in handicapping baseball (or hockey for that matter), you look for value in a line and you go with it. If you find that value, then make a +1.5 bet, you give that value back, in my opinion. What I meant is that the only time such a bet has any value is if the team you're betting on loses by exactly one run, which of course happens but probably not often enough to make it worth making such bets on any kind of regular basis.

Again, just my opinion .... it's not something I ever do.