Tuesday - 1st Inning - 5-3 +$110.00

washington @ houston (8:05 ET) - YES - line TBD

a run is scored in the 1st inning of wash games 54.55% of the time
nats score a run in the 1st inning in 30.30% of those
nats allow a run in the 1st inning in 33.33% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of houston games 70.97% of the time
houston scores a run in the 1st inning in 45.16% of those
houston allows a run in the 1st inning in 41.94% of those

* the 1st game of series

current league averages are 51.14% and 30.19%

LEANS

san fran @ pittsburgh - NO
cleveland @ yankees - NO

Current Leaders/Trends:

phillies - 76.47% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
indians - 32.26% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
giants - 53.13% of their games have been decided by 1 run
tigers - 15.15% of their games have been decided by 1 run
rangers - score a run in the 1st inning 45.45% of games
phillies - allow a run in the 1st inning 50.00% of games
pirates - score a run in the 1st innning 12.90% of games
cardinals - allow a run in the 1st inning 14.71% of games

YTD:

5-3 +$110.00

Current Streak:

3-0 +300.00

GL lazz. i remember this prop(yes) used to be a goldmine but prices have gone up considerably and hard to shop/move around after neteller

i hear ya cleo.

i try and be super selective with these because of the juice. @ -125 there are currently only 6 teams that have produced a year long profit on "yes" bets. likewise, there are only 7 teams that have cashed on "no". everyone else is in the 46%-54% range.

i live in northeast PA and get to see a lot of the phillies. they have been a cash cow on yes's this season (76.47%).

peace

lazzonya

MrCleo is dead-on 1000% accurate. Over the long haul, it's only YES or no play. Even with the books adjusting the lines toward the NO, the NO is STILL a sucker bet over 99% of the time. Before Neteller left and it took minutes instead of weeks to move money from out to out, this prop by far, the biggest ATM in baseball betting.

lazzonya, because of the relatively small sample sizes, differences between team's performances in this prop are just random variation. The ONLY variable that I've found to be highly correlated to this prop is the O/U of the game. Anything else and you're just chasing random variation.

GL

During the 2006 season, I bet YES exclusively, every single game and made a healthy profit. But as Totalguy alluded to, once Neteller left the market, along with some of the better books like Bowman's, BoS, and CRIS, the ability to lineshop and find value was killed.

I don't bet on baseball anymore, I just kick back and scarf some Chilidogs instead.
:wink:

Chilidogs. Yum. Good times!