A recap of what all these numbers mean:
08 FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is ripped from the Hardball Times with this definition:
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
xFIP is an adjustment that normalizes home runs. xERA uses hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs to create its ‘ERA’.
Hybrid ERA is my preseason projection for that pitcher; BP xERA uses the xERA from Baseball Prospectus.
Hit rate is batting average of balls hit into the field of play. The theory is 30% is expected, and pitchers have a limited control whether or not a batted ball is a hit or not. Strand rate is % of baserunners who do not score; league average is 70%. If a pitcher strays too far from that 70%, expect a regression. Luck is a combo of hit rate and strand rate: a positive number means lucky, a negative number means unlucky. SOS is strength of opposition..above 100% means the pitcher has faced tougher batters, and below means he has been facing the San Franciscos of the world. Finally, Override is my power rating for that pitcher for that game; I give a league average pitcher a 4.5 rating for the game.
Sanchez,Jonathan: IP 33.7, ERA 3.48, FIP 3.28, xFIP 3.61, xERA 3.75, Hybrid 4.01, BP xERA 4.32
Hit % 0.282 Strand 74.7% Luck 0.07, SOS 0.99 Override 4.1
Duke,Zach: IP 35.7, ERA 4.79, FIP 3.97, xFIP 5.05, xERA 6.1, Hybrid 6.18, BP xERA 4.97
Hit % 0.329 Strand 67.1% Luck -0.06, SOS 1.03, Override 5
Sanchez had control problems against Colorado, walking five in 5.7 IP. It was his second time in his last three starts that he walked a lot of batters; he’s young with a ton of stuff so that will happen every once in a while. As long as he keeps the ball in the park, his strikeouts will let him escape. It only took Duke 85 pitches to go seven innings against the Nationals. He gave up just five hits and two runs in those seven innings. Doesn’t really matter, however. Two walks versus one strikeout is the key numbers. In 35 IP, he has now struck out 10 batters. That’s not going to do it.
Young,Chris: IP 34.7, ERA 3.63, FIP 4.69, xFIP 4.73, xERA 4.03, Hybrid 4.11, BP xERA 4.25
Hit % 0.247 Strand 80.5% Luck 0.16, SOS 1.04 Override 4.3
Jurrjens,Jair: IP 38.3, ERA 3.05, FIP 2.65, xFIP 3.2, xERA 2.89, Hybrid 5.13, BP xERA 5.35
Hit % 0.23 Strand 70.0% Luck 0.07, SOS 0.95, Override 4.2
Chris Young has been a puzzle this year. His ERA is totally out of whack with the rest of his secondary ERAs, his hit rate and strand rate are showing he has been very lucky this year, and he’s given up a ton of walks so far, but he has only given up more than 2 runs in one of his six starts this season. That won’t last much longer. Jurrjens has been exceptional this season. In his last 26 IP, he has given up just 11 hits. Like Young, he’s walking too many. Unlike Young, Jurrjens will get the ground ball to get out of trouble. And unlike Young, Jurrjens has an offense that will give him some runs.
Zambrano,Carlos: IP 47, ERA 2.11, FIP 3.18, xFIP 3.7, xERA 3.86, Hybrid 3.9, BP xERA 4.1
Hit % 0.297 Strand 86.9% Luck 0.17, SOS 0.95 Override 3.5
Harang,Aaron: IP 48.3, ERA 2.98, FIP 3.34, xFIP 3.57, xERA 3.42, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 3.72
Hit % 0.267 Strand 75.6% Luck 0.09, SOS 1, Override 3.8
Zambrano wasn’t as sharp in his last start against Milwaukee, taking 111 pitches to go 6.7 IP. His strikeout numbers have dropped since the beginning of the season, and his strand rate shows he has got some breaks. Can’t argue with his success though. One concern is a small blister that affected him; he claims to be OK however. Harang has won just one game this year, a victim of bad run support. He struggled a bit against St. Louis in his last start, walking three and striking out just four. Probably won’t get much run support tomorrow against Zambrano, but still one of the better NL pitchers regardless of his record.
Suppan,Jeff: IP 34.7, ERA 5.19, FIP 5.12, xFIP 4.69, xERA 5.3, Hybrid 5.05, BP xERA 4.96
Hit % 0.289 Strand 63.6% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.05 Override 4.5
Olsen,Scott: IP 40, ERA 2.7, FIP 4.52, xFIP 5.49, xERA 3.32, Hybrid 5.31, BP xERA 5.01
Hit % 0.206 Strand 81.2% Luck 0.21, SOS 0.99, Override 4.8
Every few starts, Suppan will toss up an outing that makes everyone wonder how he can be in the major leagues. One of those happened in his last time out, giving up 8 runs to Chicago in just 3 2/3 IP. His hit rate in that game was .480 and strand rate was .360…in other words, it was just one of those days. Olson has riding some luck this year with his hit and strand rates. He threw 7 innings against Milwaukee on April 25th, giving up just 4 hits and no runs. He also walked five without strikeout anyone…it was a struggle all night for him. I’d like to see some more strikeouts from him, but so far this year he has been relatively effective. You don’t have to be perfect with this Marlins offense, but that Milwaukee offense can be deadly against lefties. Olson is going to have to be careful here.
Hill,Shawn: IP 18, ERA 3.5, FIP 2.57, xFIP 3.78, xERA 4.25, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 4.56
Hit % 0.3 Strand 65.2% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.07 Override 4.3
Chacon,Shawn: IP 38, ERA 3.32, FIP 4.18, xFIP 5.04, xERA 4, Hybrid 5.14, BP xERA 4.96
Hit % 0.257 Strand 76.4% Luck 0.11, SOS 1, Override 5
Hill isn’t 100%, but he’s been extremely effective in his 18 IP so far this year. He pitched to contact against the Braves last time out, striking out just one but giving up only four hits in 8 IP. That type of hit rate doesn’t last long, and he won’t have the big ballpark in Washington to handle any mistakes. Chacon had his first awful outing of the year in his last start against Arizona. At least the numbers say that….he wasn’t that bad however. He struck out seven and walked only one, also allowed seven hits in five innings which isn’t horrible. Arizona just bunched the hits together; five of those 8 base runners scored. Still, he is Shawn Chacon. He’s not going to change.
Eaton,Adam: IP 34.3, ERA 4.72, FIP 4.15, xFIP 4.59, xERA 4.55, Hybrid 6.07, BP xERA 5.19
Hit % 0.29 Strand 67.8% Luck -0.01, SOS 0.95 Override 4.8
Johnson,Randy: IP 20.7, ERA 4.79, FIP 3.8, xFIP 4.25, xERA 4.77, Hybrid 4.94, BP xERA 3.91
Hit % 0.317 Strand 54.8% Luck -0.17, SOS 0.9, Override 4.1
Eaton did OK against San Diego in his last start; everyone does well against San Diego this year however. Six starts for Eaton and six no decisions; he’s keeping the Phillies in the game which is all they ask. Johnson struggled in his last start, allowing six runs in four innings. His hit rate was .440 and strand rate was .380; that’s not going to happen again today.
Figueroa,Nelson: IP 28.7, ERA 4.08, FIP 3.46, xFIP 4.8, xERA 4.4, Hybrid 0, BP xERA 0
Hit % 0.287 Strand 70.7% Luck 0.02, SOS 0.98 Override 4.7
Kuroda,Hiroki: IP 37.7, ERA 3.82, FIP 3.87, xFIP 3.96, xERA 4.51, Hybrid 4.8, BP xERA 4.3
Hit % 0.279 Strand 71.4% Luck 0.04, SOS 0.98, Override 4.4
Figueroa was skipped over after the Mets had a rainout, so this will be his first start since April 27. He has been effective in all four of his starts so far this year, keeping the Mets in the game while not being dominating. He’s a fifth starter, can’t expect anything more from him. Kuroda’s expectations were a lot higher, especially after starting the season with a masterful performance against San Diego. He was pretty good against Florida in his last start, giving up just five hits in seven innings.
Looper,Braden: IP 32.7, ERA 3.86, FIP 3.78, xFIP 4.31, xERA 4.27, Hybrid 4.77, BP xERA 5.36
Hit % 0.275 Strand 72.1% Luck 0.05, SOS 0.96 Override 4.4
Redman,Mark: IP 28.3, ERA 6.99, FIP 5.51, xFIP 4.51, xERA 5.38, Hybrid 6.55, BP xERA 5.46
Hit % 0.278 Strand 54.0% Luck -0.14, SOS 1.03, Override 5.2
Looper has allowed 1, 3, 1, 7, 0 and 2 runs in his six starts this year. That’s all the Cardinals need from him, especially the way they are swinging the bats. Redman, on the other hand, has given up 4, 2, 2, 4, 10 runs in his five starts. The 10 runs in his last outing stick out; however, he gave up all 10 runs in the first inning and managed to throw five scoreless innings after that. He isn’t a good pitcher, but he isn’t a Matt Morris yet.
akefield,Tim: IP 38, ERA 4.03, FIP 5.57, xFIP 5.82, xERA 4.64, Hybrid 5.18, BP xERA 4.86
Hit % 0.256 Strand 76.2% Luck 0.11, SOS 1 Override 4.9
Robertson,Nate: IP 34.3, ERA 6.82, FIP 4.35, xFIP 4.22, xERA 5.49, Hybrid 4.95, BP xERA 4.45
Hit % 0.333 Strand 58.7% Luck -0.15, SOS 1, Override 4.7
Wakefield has been pretty consistent this year, keeping the Red Sox in the game in just about every one of his starts. He has struck out just one batter in his last thirteen innings while walking 9 batters…that better not be a trend. Robertson gave up a three run homer in the first inning to Bobby Abreu in his last start, then battled back to allow the Yankees just one more run in 5 2/3 IP. Look at his hit rate and strand rate…hasn’t caught many breaks so far this year.
Carmona,Fausto: IP 34.7, ERA 2.6, FIP 5.12, xFIP 5.54, xERA 5.38, Hybrid 4.17, BP xERA 4.15
Hit % 0.292 Strand 82.5% Luck 0.13, SOS 1 Override 4.3
Pettitte,Andy: IP 36.7, ERA 3.93, FIP 4.81, xFIP 4.07, xERA 5.05, Hybrid 4.57, BP xERA 4.25
Hit % 0.303 Strand 74.5% Luck 0.04, SOS 0.94, Override 4.4
It probably isn’t a good idea for a pitcher having control problems to face the Yankees. Carmona has walked 26 batters in 34 IP; you can get away with that against Seattle and Kansas City but the left-handed lineup of New York will punish you. Pettitte gave up just 1 homer in his first 25 IP this year; he has given up four in his last two starts. The Indians knocked him around pretty good in his start on April 25th…I don’t think that will happen again.
Sonnanstine,Andy: IP 38.7, ERA 4.42, FIP 4.28, xFIP 4.16, xERA 3.97, Hybrid 4.63, BP xERA 4.52
Hit % 0.262 Strand 68.4% Luck 0.02, SOS 0 Override 4.6
Burnett,A.J.: IP 37.3, ERA 4.82, FIP 4, xFIP 4.62, xERA 5.32, Hybrid 3.47, BP xERA 3.76
Hit % 0.311 Strand 66.4% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.01, Override 4.4
This is a nice contrast of pitching. Sonnanstine relies on pinpoint control to keep his team in the game; Burnett doesn’t seem to care about walking a ton of batters. Burnett shut down Boston his last start, giving up three hits in seven innings. He also walked five, brining his walk total to 15 over his last 20 IP. He is a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t give up home runs, so the tight rope he walks is kind of thick. Doesn’t have a lot of room for error however.
Adenhart,Nicholas: IP 2, ERA 22.5, FIP 10.57, xFIP 11.83, xERA 12.49, Hybrid 5.26, BP xERA 5.95
Hit % 0.333 Strand 37.5% Luck -0.36, SOS 0 Override 5
Bannister,Brian: IP 35.7, ERA 4.04, FIP 4.1, xFIP 4.27, xERA 3.4, Hybrid 4.46, BP xERA 4.98
Hit % 0.239 Strand 65.9% Luck 0.02, SOS 0.97, Override 4
As a pitcher with control problems throwing on three days rest in his first major league start, the Oakland A’s were the last team a guy like Adenhart wanted to see in the opposing bench. Today’s opponent is more like it…the Royals have little interest in staying in the batter’s box very long. If it’s close, they’ll swing. Just the type of team Adenhart needs. Bannister got rocked by Texas for seven runs in just three innings his last start, giving up three wind-aided home runs in Arlington. Don’t read too much into that, it was just one of those days.
Blackburn,Nick: IP 38.3, ERA 3.52, FIP 3.04, xFIP 4.05, xERA 5.16, Hybrid 4.1, BP xERA 5.95
Hit % 0.351 Strand 74.6% Luck 0, SOS 1.02 Override 4.4
Floyd,Gavin: IP 31.3, ERA 3.16, FIP 5.21, xFIP 5.59, xERA 2.86, Hybrid 5.65, BP xERA 4.9
1 Hit % 0.165 Strand 74.8% Luck 0.18, SOS 0.99, Override 4.7
This is the third time this season the White Sox are going to see Blackburn throw; maybe he’ll bring the White Sox out of their funk. Blackburn gave up his first home run of the season to Chicago in his last start. While he gives up a lot of hits, his ground ball tendencies and low walk totals keep the damage to a minimum. Floyd faced the Twins in his last start, giving up three runs on five hits in six innings. He has started regressing back to earth; in his last two starts he has allowed 8 runs in twelve innings. Still, that hit rate is pretty low and completely unsustainable. The FIP ERAs tell you which way his ERA is heading.
Burres,Brian: IP 31.3, ERA 2.87, FIP 4.02, xFIP 4.44, xERA 3.95, Hybrid 5.77, BP xERA 5.56
1 Hit % 0.269 Strand 78.5% Luck 0.12, SOS 0.98 Override 4.8
Duchscherer,Justin: IP 15, ERA 2.4, FIP 3.53, xFIP 2.81, xERA 4.5, Hybrid 3.68, BP xERA 4.41
1 Hit % 0.326 Strand 61.7% Luck -0.11, SOS 1.02, Override 4
Burres doesn’t have much room for error, either with his team or with his pitches. He gave up three runs in six innings in his last start against Tampa, only the second time in six starts he has allowed more than one run. He’s been a bit lucky and is walking too many to keep shutting teams down. Duchscherer has been solid in all three of his starts since coming back form the DL. Unlike Burres, luck hasn’t been on Duchscherer’s side so far. Jack Cust dropped a fly ball in his last start, leading to five unearned runs against Anaheim. He still held on for the win, however. I do like his 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio.
Ponson,Sidney: IP 13.3, ERA 1.35, FIP 2.39, xFIP 2.86, xERA 4, Hybrid 0, BP xERA 5.67
1 Hit % 0.317 Strand 62.5% Luck -0.09, SOS 0 Override 4.7
Batista,Miguel: IP 32.7, ERA 4.41, FIP 3.65, xFIP 4.6, xERA 5.48, Hybrid 4.91, BP xERA 4.91
1 Hit % 0.333 Strand 70.3% Luck -0.03, SOS 0.97, Override 5
I could be drinking the cool-aid where Ponson is involved. His two starts have been against Minnesota and Kansas City, so the numbers are probably a bit tainted. The four unearned runs aren’t counted on his record either. But he’s throwing his slider and changeup for strikes, has a 23/5 GB to FB ratio, not walking anyone and hasn't been caught driving drunk in three years. What’s not to like?
08 FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is ripped from the Hardball Times with this definition:
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
xFIP is an adjustment that normalizes home runs. xERA uses hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs to create its ‘ERA’.
Hybrid ERA is my preseason projection for that pitcher; BP xERA uses the xERA from Baseball Prospectus.
Hit rate is batting average of balls hit into the field of play. The theory is 30% is expected, and pitchers have a limited control whether or not a batted ball is a hit or not. Strand rate is % of baserunners who do not score; league average is 70%. If a pitcher strays too far from that 70%, expect a regression. Luck is a combo of hit rate and strand rate: a positive number means lucky, a negative number means unlucky. SOS is strength of opposition..above 100% means the pitcher has faced tougher batters, and below means he has been facing the San Franciscos of the world. Finally, Override is my power rating for that pitcher for that game; I give a league average pitcher a 4.5 rating for the game.
Sanchez,Jonathan: IP 33.7, ERA 3.48, FIP 3.28, xFIP 3.61, xERA 3.75, Hybrid 4.01, BP xERA 4.32
Hit % 0.282 Strand 74.7% Luck 0.07, SOS 0.99 Override 4.1
Duke,Zach: IP 35.7, ERA 4.79, FIP 3.97, xFIP 5.05, xERA 6.1, Hybrid 6.18, BP xERA 4.97
Hit % 0.329 Strand 67.1% Luck -0.06, SOS 1.03, Override 5
Sanchez had control problems against Colorado, walking five in 5.7 IP. It was his second time in his last three starts that he walked a lot of batters; he’s young with a ton of stuff so that will happen every once in a while. As long as he keeps the ball in the park, his strikeouts will let him escape. It only took Duke 85 pitches to go seven innings against the Nationals. He gave up just five hits and two runs in those seven innings. Doesn’t really matter, however. Two walks versus one strikeout is the key numbers. In 35 IP, he has now struck out 10 batters. That’s not going to do it.
Young,Chris: IP 34.7, ERA 3.63, FIP 4.69, xFIP 4.73, xERA 4.03, Hybrid 4.11, BP xERA 4.25
Hit % 0.247 Strand 80.5% Luck 0.16, SOS 1.04 Override 4.3
Jurrjens,Jair: IP 38.3, ERA 3.05, FIP 2.65, xFIP 3.2, xERA 2.89, Hybrid 5.13, BP xERA 5.35
Hit % 0.23 Strand 70.0% Luck 0.07, SOS 0.95, Override 4.2
Chris Young has been a puzzle this year. His ERA is totally out of whack with the rest of his secondary ERAs, his hit rate and strand rate are showing he has been very lucky this year, and he’s given up a ton of walks so far, but he has only given up more than 2 runs in one of his six starts this season. That won’t last much longer. Jurrjens has been exceptional this season. In his last 26 IP, he has given up just 11 hits. Like Young, he’s walking too many. Unlike Young, Jurrjens will get the ground ball to get out of trouble. And unlike Young, Jurrjens has an offense that will give him some runs.
Zambrano,Carlos: IP 47, ERA 2.11, FIP 3.18, xFIP 3.7, xERA 3.86, Hybrid 3.9, BP xERA 4.1
Hit % 0.297 Strand 86.9% Luck 0.17, SOS 0.95 Override 3.5
Harang,Aaron: IP 48.3, ERA 2.98, FIP 3.34, xFIP 3.57, xERA 3.42, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 3.72
Hit % 0.267 Strand 75.6% Luck 0.09, SOS 1, Override 3.8
Zambrano wasn’t as sharp in his last start against Milwaukee, taking 111 pitches to go 6.7 IP. His strikeout numbers have dropped since the beginning of the season, and his strand rate shows he has got some breaks. Can’t argue with his success though. One concern is a small blister that affected him; he claims to be OK however. Harang has won just one game this year, a victim of bad run support. He struggled a bit against St. Louis in his last start, walking three and striking out just four. Probably won’t get much run support tomorrow against Zambrano, but still one of the better NL pitchers regardless of his record.
Suppan,Jeff: IP 34.7, ERA 5.19, FIP 5.12, xFIP 4.69, xERA 5.3, Hybrid 5.05, BP xERA 4.96
Hit % 0.289 Strand 63.6% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.05 Override 4.5
Olsen,Scott: IP 40, ERA 2.7, FIP 4.52, xFIP 5.49, xERA 3.32, Hybrid 5.31, BP xERA 5.01
Hit % 0.206 Strand 81.2% Luck 0.21, SOS 0.99, Override 4.8
Every few starts, Suppan will toss up an outing that makes everyone wonder how he can be in the major leagues. One of those happened in his last time out, giving up 8 runs to Chicago in just 3 2/3 IP. His hit rate in that game was .480 and strand rate was .360…in other words, it was just one of those days. Olson has riding some luck this year with his hit and strand rates. He threw 7 innings against Milwaukee on April 25th, giving up just 4 hits and no runs. He also walked five without strikeout anyone…it was a struggle all night for him. I’d like to see some more strikeouts from him, but so far this year he has been relatively effective. You don’t have to be perfect with this Marlins offense, but that Milwaukee offense can be deadly against lefties. Olson is going to have to be careful here.
Hill,Shawn: IP 18, ERA 3.5, FIP 2.57, xFIP 3.78, xERA 4.25, Hybrid 4.13, BP xERA 4.56
Hit % 0.3 Strand 65.2% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.07 Override 4.3
Chacon,Shawn: IP 38, ERA 3.32, FIP 4.18, xFIP 5.04, xERA 4, Hybrid 5.14, BP xERA 4.96
Hit % 0.257 Strand 76.4% Luck 0.11, SOS 1, Override 5
Hill isn’t 100%, but he’s been extremely effective in his 18 IP so far this year. He pitched to contact against the Braves last time out, striking out just one but giving up only four hits in 8 IP. That type of hit rate doesn’t last long, and he won’t have the big ballpark in Washington to handle any mistakes. Chacon had his first awful outing of the year in his last start against Arizona. At least the numbers say that….he wasn’t that bad however. He struck out seven and walked only one, also allowed seven hits in five innings which isn’t horrible. Arizona just bunched the hits together; five of those 8 base runners scored. Still, he is Shawn Chacon. He’s not going to change.
Eaton,Adam: IP 34.3, ERA 4.72, FIP 4.15, xFIP 4.59, xERA 4.55, Hybrid 6.07, BP xERA 5.19
Hit % 0.29 Strand 67.8% Luck -0.01, SOS 0.95 Override 4.8
Johnson,Randy: IP 20.7, ERA 4.79, FIP 3.8, xFIP 4.25, xERA 4.77, Hybrid 4.94, BP xERA 3.91
Hit % 0.317 Strand 54.8% Luck -0.17, SOS 0.9, Override 4.1
Eaton did OK against San Diego in his last start; everyone does well against San Diego this year however. Six starts for Eaton and six no decisions; he’s keeping the Phillies in the game which is all they ask. Johnson struggled in his last start, allowing six runs in four innings. His hit rate was .440 and strand rate was .380; that’s not going to happen again today.
Figueroa,Nelson: IP 28.7, ERA 4.08, FIP 3.46, xFIP 4.8, xERA 4.4, Hybrid 0, BP xERA 0
Hit % 0.287 Strand 70.7% Luck 0.02, SOS 0.98 Override 4.7
Kuroda,Hiroki: IP 37.7, ERA 3.82, FIP 3.87, xFIP 3.96, xERA 4.51, Hybrid 4.8, BP xERA 4.3
Hit % 0.279 Strand 71.4% Luck 0.04, SOS 0.98, Override 4.4
Figueroa was skipped over after the Mets had a rainout, so this will be his first start since April 27. He has been effective in all four of his starts so far this year, keeping the Mets in the game while not being dominating. He’s a fifth starter, can’t expect anything more from him. Kuroda’s expectations were a lot higher, especially after starting the season with a masterful performance against San Diego. He was pretty good against Florida in his last start, giving up just five hits in seven innings.
Looper,Braden: IP 32.7, ERA 3.86, FIP 3.78, xFIP 4.31, xERA 4.27, Hybrid 4.77, BP xERA 5.36
Hit % 0.275 Strand 72.1% Luck 0.05, SOS 0.96 Override 4.4
Redman,Mark: IP 28.3, ERA 6.99, FIP 5.51, xFIP 4.51, xERA 5.38, Hybrid 6.55, BP xERA 5.46
Hit % 0.278 Strand 54.0% Luck -0.14, SOS 1.03, Override 5.2
Looper has allowed 1, 3, 1, 7, 0 and 2 runs in his six starts this year. That’s all the Cardinals need from him, especially the way they are swinging the bats. Redman, on the other hand, has given up 4, 2, 2, 4, 10 runs in his five starts. The 10 runs in his last outing stick out; however, he gave up all 10 runs in the first inning and managed to throw five scoreless innings after that. He isn’t a good pitcher, but he isn’t a Matt Morris yet.
akefield,Tim: IP 38, ERA 4.03, FIP 5.57, xFIP 5.82, xERA 4.64, Hybrid 5.18, BP xERA 4.86
Hit % 0.256 Strand 76.2% Luck 0.11, SOS 1 Override 4.9
Robertson,Nate: IP 34.3, ERA 6.82, FIP 4.35, xFIP 4.22, xERA 5.49, Hybrid 4.95, BP xERA 4.45
Hit % 0.333 Strand 58.7% Luck -0.15, SOS 1, Override 4.7
Wakefield has been pretty consistent this year, keeping the Red Sox in the game in just about every one of his starts. He has struck out just one batter in his last thirteen innings while walking 9 batters…that better not be a trend. Robertson gave up a three run homer in the first inning to Bobby Abreu in his last start, then battled back to allow the Yankees just one more run in 5 2/3 IP. Look at his hit rate and strand rate…hasn’t caught many breaks so far this year.
Carmona,Fausto: IP 34.7, ERA 2.6, FIP 5.12, xFIP 5.54, xERA 5.38, Hybrid 4.17, BP xERA 4.15
Hit % 0.292 Strand 82.5% Luck 0.13, SOS 1 Override 4.3
Pettitte,Andy: IP 36.7, ERA 3.93, FIP 4.81, xFIP 4.07, xERA 5.05, Hybrid 4.57, BP xERA 4.25
Hit % 0.303 Strand 74.5% Luck 0.04, SOS 0.94, Override 4.4
It probably isn’t a good idea for a pitcher having control problems to face the Yankees. Carmona has walked 26 batters in 34 IP; you can get away with that against Seattle and Kansas City but the left-handed lineup of New York will punish you. Pettitte gave up just 1 homer in his first 25 IP this year; he has given up four in his last two starts. The Indians knocked him around pretty good in his start on April 25th…I don’t think that will happen again.
Sonnanstine,Andy: IP 38.7, ERA 4.42, FIP 4.28, xFIP 4.16, xERA 3.97, Hybrid 4.63, BP xERA 4.52
Hit % 0.262 Strand 68.4% Luck 0.02, SOS 0 Override 4.6
Burnett,A.J.: IP 37.3, ERA 4.82, FIP 4, xFIP 4.62, xERA 5.32, Hybrid 3.47, BP xERA 3.76
Hit % 0.311 Strand 66.4% Luck -0.05, SOS 1.01, Override 4.4
This is a nice contrast of pitching. Sonnanstine relies on pinpoint control to keep his team in the game; Burnett doesn’t seem to care about walking a ton of batters. Burnett shut down Boston his last start, giving up three hits in seven innings. He also walked five, brining his walk total to 15 over his last 20 IP. He is a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t give up home runs, so the tight rope he walks is kind of thick. Doesn’t have a lot of room for error however.
Adenhart,Nicholas: IP 2, ERA 22.5, FIP 10.57, xFIP 11.83, xERA 12.49, Hybrid 5.26, BP xERA 5.95
Hit % 0.333 Strand 37.5% Luck -0.36, SOS 0 Override 5
Bannister,Brian: IP 35.7, ERA 4.04, FIP 4.1, xFIP 4.27, xERA 3.4, Hybrid 4.46, BP xERA 4.98
Hit % 0.239 Strand 65.9% Luck 0.02, SOS 0.97, Override 4
As a pitcher with control problems throwing on three days rest in his first major league start, the Oakland A’s were the last team a guy like Adenhart wanted to see in the opposing bench. Today’s opponent is more like it…the Royals have little interest in staying in the batter’s box very long. If it’s close, they’ll swing. Just the type of team Adenhart needs. Bannister got rocked by Texas for seven runs in just three innings his last start, giving up three wind-aided home runs in Arlington. Don’t read too much into that, it was just one of those days.
Blackburn,Nick: IP 38.3, ERA 3.52, FIP 3.04, xFIP 4.05, xERA 5.16, Hybrid 4.1, BP xERA 5.95
Hit % 0.351 Strand 74.6% Luck 0, SOS 1.02 Override 4.4
Floyd,Gavin: IP 31.3, ERA 3.16, FIP 5.21, xFIP 5.59, xERA 2.86, Hybrid 5.65, BP xERA 4.9
1 Hit % 0.165 Strand 74.8% Luck 0.18, SOS 0.99, Override 4.7
This is the third time this season the White Sox are going to see Blackburn throw; maybe he’ll bring the White Sox out of their funk. Blackburn gave up his first home run of the season to Chicago in his last start. While he gives up a lot of hits, his ground ball tendencies and low walk totals keep the damage to a minimum. Floyd faced the Twins in his last start, giving up three runs on five hits in six innings. He has started regressing back to earth; in his last two starts he has allowed 8 runs in twelve innings. Still, that hit rate is pretty low and completely unsustainable. The FIP ERAs tell you which way his ERA is heading.
Burres,Brian: IP 31.3, ERA 2.87, FIP 4.02, xFIP 4.44, xERA 3.95, Hybrid 5.77, BP xERA 5.56
1 Hit % 0.269 Strand 78.5% Luck 0.12, SOS 0.98 Override 4.8
Duchscherer,Justin: IP 15, ERA 2.4, FIP 3.53, xFIP 2.81, xERA 4.5, Hybrid 3.68, BP xERA 4.41
1 Hit % 0.326 Strand 61.7% Luck -0.11, SOS 1.02, Override 4
Burres doesn’t have much room for error, either with his team or with his pitches. He gave up three runs in six innings in his last start against Tampa, only the second time in six starts he has allowed more than one run. He’s been a bit lucky and is walking too many to keep shutting teams down. Duchscherer has been solid in all three of his starts since coming back form the DL. Unlike Burres, luck hasn’t been on Duchscherer’s side so far. Jack Cust dropped a fly ball in his last start, leading to five unearned runs against Anaheim. He still held on for the win, however. I do like his 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio.
Ponson,Sidney: IP 13.3, ERA 1.35, FIP 2.39, xFIP 2.86, xERA 4, Hybrid 0, BP xERA 5.67
1 Hit % 0.317 Strand 62.5% Luck -0.09, SOS 0 Override 4.7
Batista,Miguel: IP 32.7, ERA 4.41, FIP 3.65, xFIP 4.6, xERA 5.48, Hybrid 4.91, BP xERA 4.91
1 Hit % 0.333 Strand 70.3% Luck -0.03, SOS 0.97, Override 5
I could be drinking the cool-aid where Ponson is involved. His two starts have been against Minnesota and Kansas City, so the numbers are probably a bit tainted. The four unearned runs aren’t counted on his record either. But he’s throwing his slider and changeup for strikes, has a 23/5 GB to FB ratio, not walking anyone and hasn't been caught driving drunk in three years. What’s not to like?
