been playing a few 1st inning props, Any Advice??

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Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
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guys, Ive been playing a few (1st inning runs NO RUNS )props, its been good to me so far, but Im sadly lacking resources to do ANY research??

ccan anyone suggest, any site that gives 1st inning stats?:103631605

thanks cats.

tater
 

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For what its worth statistically the first innings should produce more runs than any other. It works out 0.55 runs compared to 0.43 in the 2nd with an average of 0.48 overall, obviously the bigger the Total then the bigger that Percent becomes. I've got the chance of a run percentage at

6 Runs=38.65%
7 Runs=42.16%
8 Runs=45.53%
9 Runs=48.07%
10 Runs=51.36%
For all this hard work I did I realised very quickly that this is probably the most fickle game known to Man and certainly the most frustrating from a handicapping point of view. If I was you I would maximise my chances of Runs and factor in the better chance of Home runs which average out at NL= 1.06 per game and AL= 1.11 per game.

Who is it you bet with? like all bets, its the vig that matters most. :drink:
 

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winbet,

man Im glad you chimed in here,,,, Im at 5 dimes only playing these, Im divideing my numbers in the am, then lines come out 10ish my time,,, so I am 20 mins or less from gettting frist crack at em,,,

Im lookingmostly at 1st game matchups with 1 days rest,,,, also how much the starting pitcher has slipped from previous outing,,, thats been my best, finding a pitcher thats falling apart,,

there are 16 pitchers that im watching slip, and waiting for them to play one another, thats only happend 2 times so far,,,,, both wins,,,

anyway, there is alot of common knowledge here soooooo not like Im getting super value lol,,, soooooooooo I am geting saddled with some -130s and -140s,,, I have caught a few at +$ too though,,,

anywya,,,,

if you can suggest any sites Id greatly appreciate it
tater
 

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oh and yes I had the (METS 2nd game 1st inning YES a score)!! lol they were ON friggin fire in that first game, how could you NOT HIT it for a nice med pinch???!! lol

tater:103631605
 

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Playing them as well, except I play all NL teams but SF and Pit games to score......then chase for the next 4 games.

Sportingnews.com has all the 1st inn stats from years gone by....go to baseball reference there and hit box scores, page down.
 

Mila Kunis.... why I watch bad movies
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i keep running stats on every teams first inning performance (this season). i've also started a weekday thread devoted to 1st inning bets. i'm currently 7-4 +$205.00. i have the spreadsheet on my computer at work, so i can't give you any specifics right now, but the phillies have had a run scored in a rediculous amount of 1st innings this year. somewhere around 75%. good luck!
 

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geesh,, thats exacly what I needed shocker,,,, and by the way Lazonya, your the reason I even began looking at the 1st inning matchups,,, when I find something of value I will hit you up accordingly!!!

thanks catts
tater:toast:
 

Mila Kunis.... why I watch bad movies
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always looking for another opinion on these. let's make some green together.

as for what's left tonight, i remember from my info that houston is one of the higher % teams in both scoring AND allowing runs in the 1st. LA was average in both. they played last night and it was a "NO". i would lean "YES".

peace

lazzonya
 

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this matchup just hits my radar of qualifications,,, and since I am on boston +2 lolol

I am game I will for put a solid unit on the YES,,, score in the first inning,,

gl to all
tater
 

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easy winner,,,, this is so much more fun thatn sweating a dam fkn free throw to catch an OVER lolol

tater
 

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bost 1st inning

im on the

YES a score in 1s t inning

blackburn is slipping a tad, wake is streaky, both sides bats are strong

gl
tater
 

Mila Kunis.... why I watch bad movies
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i'm definately not arguing anyone's opinion.

i'm an engineer and understand the principles of random variation. i also enjoy looking for numerical trends that can influence my betting. i've said in my earlier posts that these trends may also be ripe for fading (if you believe that all teams will eventually migrate towards the league averages). for now, i'm going with them. the pirates, marlins, and tigers were solid "NO's" the entire season in 2007.

the phillies are 28-11 (71.8%) in having a run scored in the first inning of their games this year. with $100 bets and -125 juice you would be :

+$1425.00

the phillies are 10-2 (83.3%) in having a run scored in the first innning of games following a day off or "NO" in the previous game. with $100 bets and -125 juice you are:

+$750.00

i'm from NEPA, so i see a lot of the phillies. they have been very good to me this year on 1st inning props. i will probably be cursing them by the all star break.

peace

lazzonya
 

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Historically, 52.8% of all games have a run scored in the first inning. While the Phillies 71.8% run so far is impressive, it's barely statistically significant through 39 games. A 70% clip for them through 39 games would be random variation. The 10-2 run isn't anything to hang your hat on because of the small sample size. And for the 2007 season, those 3 teams would have had to be hitting the NO at a 57% clip to be statistically significant.

The key to beating the books on this prop is volume and playing positive expectation plays consistently. Relatively speaking, using team and pitched specific data isn't going to produce very many positive expectation plays a season because of the small sample sizes. Because of this, the game's O/U is the only variable that is highly correlated with Run Scored in the First Inning. You are right that over the next 39 games, the Phillies are just as likely to hit on a 25-30% clip as they are to maintain their 72% clip.

If I told you that over the last 2500 games with a posted O/U of 8.5, that the rate of scoring in the 1st inning was 50.8%, which translates into a -103 ML, would you think that was valuable information? If you found that the Indians/Blue Jays Game 1 (with an O/U of 8.5) YES line was +105, creating a 2% overlay, would that be of interest to you?
 

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