First Inning Runs 5/13

totalguy · May 13, 2008

Was/NYM Yes +110 Risk 2 units
Fla/Cin Yes +115 Risk 2 units
SD/CHN Yes -155 To Win 2 units
LA/Mil Yes -110 To Win 1 unit
Pitt/Stl Yes -110 To Win 2 units
Col/AZ Yes -110 To Win 1 unit
Hou/SF Yes +115 Risk 1 unit
Bos/Bal Yes +100 Risk 1 unit
Oak/Cle Yes -110 To Win 1 unit
NYY/TB Yes +115 Risk 2 units
Sea/Tex Yes -110 To Win 1 unit

Do not play if your line is worse than the ones listed here. NO EXCEPTIONS! GLTA

lazzonya · May 13, 2008

good luck total.

i have a play on

Was/NYM Yes +110 Risk 2 units

& i had leans to yes on:

Col/AZ Yes -110 To Win 1 unit
Hou/SF Yes +115 Risk 1 unit
Sea/Tex Yes -110 To Win 1 unit

hope they go at least 7-4 for you

peace

lazzonya

Cap'nCrunch · May 13, 2008

Yo TG,

Are these the +EV lines (breakeven or better) for each game given it's current o/u total? Or are these the best lines you've found at different books?

And I can only assume the 2 units bets imply which games have the best overlays. right?

Man I wish I was still using this system!!! :103631605

AlcoholLegacy · May 13, 2008

look good .GL!

VEGASBABY+ · May 13, 2008

i just started a thread on this subject you like all yes I would go with no in most cases

daviddaman2 · May 13, 2008

like i said in the other thread, so far this year

YES = 298

NO = 277

so if you're gunna go one way or the other, yes is the way to go.

Cap'nCrunch · May 13, 2008

Vegas Baby,

A run is scored in the 1st inning of MLB games about 53.7% of the time (Please correct me if I'm wrong on this number TotalGuy). In other words, there's a small edge on YES. Historically, books have shaded the line towards 'NO' (higher juice on NO), thus leaving a pretty juicy +EV situation with YES. It doesn't take a genius to see that 53.7% x +110 odds = $$$ in the long run.

However, books have gotten sharper on this angle (surprise surprise), and now it's hard to find many games where the juice on YES makes it profitable to bet it at all (if you can't beat the vig, you're wasting your time).

Obviously, Santana vs Beckett is going to yield less 1st inning runs than say Boof Bonzer vs Jeff Weaver (my alltime personal auto-fade). However if the price you pay for YES gives you +EV (overlay), then play it.

This is why TotalGuy is adamant about NOT playing the first inning if you can't get the lines he posted or better. It becomes -EV, you might win today, but you'll lose in the long run betting bad lines.

totalguy · May 13, 2008

Cap'n Crunch said:
Yo TG,

Are these the +EV lines (breakeven or better) for each game given it's current o/u total? Or are these the best lines you've found at different books?

And I can only assume the 2 units bets imply which games have the best overlays. right?

Man I wish I was still using this system!!!

Crunch, good question! :103631605

These are the lines that I found today over 5 different outs. The breakevens are obviously worse than these lines but in the spirit of not making things too complicated and confusing for others, I state that people should not play lines worse than these.