[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SHARPS INDIFFERENT ABOUT INTERLEAGUE PLAY[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've always been a bit surprised about how unenthusiastic Las Vegas and Reno sharps are about interleague play in major league baseball. We're getting a taste of that this weekend...though it won't be going at full force until June. Most of what we have this weekend are the "rivalry" games among geographic twins.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, it's those rivalry games that have most captured the public's fancy...which highlight a feature that has boosted attendance all over the country. In terms of interest, ticket sales, and TV ratings, interleague play has been a big success.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why are the sharps so uninterested?[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SHARPS INDIFFERENT ABOUT INTERLEAGUE PLAY[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've always been a bit surprised about how unenthusiastic Las Vegas and Reno sharps are about interleague play in major league baseball. We're getting a taste of that this weekend...though it won't be going at full force until June. Most of what we have this weekend are the "rivalry" games among geographic twins.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, it's those rivalry games that have most captured the public's fancy...which highlight a feature that has boosted attendance all over the country. In terms of interest, ticket sales, and TV ratings, interleague play has been a big success.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why are the sharps so uninterested?[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps have contempt for any opinion belonging to the public. If the public loves something, it must be something stupid that's beneath the interest of the sharps.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many sharps are old-school veterans. They like things the way they were. They don't like innovation, especially when it's seen as pandering to people who DON'T like things the way they were. I know guys who still wish each league only had two divisions, and that the Wildcard was outlawed. I know guys who wish the mounds were still at the same height they had in the 1960's. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Some sharps handicap based on each pitcher's history against that day's opponent. Histories are very slim in interleague play, so those guys feel like they're flying blind. They literally have no frame of reference because they can't look up how Ben Sheets has performed against the Blue Jays. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Some sharps base their bets on "reading the market," which is largely trying to figure out what other sharps are betting. You have guys who handicap the games, and guys who handicap the big bettors. If many of the big bettors aren't betting the games, those who try to mirror their moves have nothing to follow. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've noticed that "feel" handicappers seem lost at sea in these games as well. I'm not sure what it is they're out of touch with. But, seeing Detroit play at Arizona seems so weird to them that they don't have a frame of reference. Gamblers rely on their experience when making decisions. They don't have a sense of what "San Diego vs. Cleveland" means. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When interleague play started, many sharps lost big. They went into the process arrogant, and made big bets on games where they hadn't thought things through. This created a negative sense that hasn't left them to this day. They decided it was "impossible" to pick winners because they couldn't do it right off the bat. I've talked often in the past about how often sharps are derailed by their own overconfidence. The swagger that helps them earn more from their winning streaks sometimes makes them dig big holes. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many old schoolers have a bias that the National League is the stronger league. That goes way back, and is part of the reason the NL is called the "Senior Circuit." There was a period where it was the stronger league, and some guys just can't shake that impression. When they don't have current stuff to go on, they fall back into that bias. This has been a big mistake in recent years. The American League was amazingly dominant two years ago, and won again last year. I know a few guys who took a bath in 2006 because they just couldn't believe that the NL would keep losing. Killed their seasons. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The lines are softer in interleague play because many of the oddsmakers don't know how to evaluate the differences between the leagues...and because many sharps aren't even betting. The openers aren't great, and they don't get pounded to the "right" place quickly or at all. Back in 2006, the lines never got close to the reality that was happening on the field. If the lines are soft, it's a player's market. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The American League is likely to have an edge again. It may not be as big percentage-wise as the last two seasons. And, it may not even overcome the moneylines. Maybe you can't "bet blindly" on the AL and make money this year. I do think there are some very clear "value" teams in the AL right now...and I think there are also some obvious "go against" teams in the NL. I'll be focusing on those lists for my clients. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Remember that rivalry games have more of a football feel than a baseball feel to them. The crowds are big, and the players themselves treat the games as something special. You can apply some football handicapping elements to these kinds of games. There are revenge spots. There are lookaheads and letdowns (particularly the game before or the game after a big rivalry series). Bad teams will get up for a state rival and play over their heads. Many sharps think IL games take away handicapping tools. I believe they add them. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The rivalry games DO have pitching histories you can look at. The Mets play the Yankees every year. The Cubs play the White Sox every year. Look through pitching histories of the past few seasons to see if there are guys who have an edge, or are behind the eight-ball this weekend. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pay close attention to how the bullpens are used early in a series. The managers are taking these games very seriously because there's so much local attention. It's almost like a mini-version of the playoffs. For some of the lesser teams, it's the closest thing to a postseason feel that they'll experience. Managers who use much of their bullpen when trying to win the first two games will often have nothing but tired arms in game three. This happens every year. Be sure you're reading the boxscores to see who's in best position to win the Sunday games that go down to the wire. [/FONT]
