Friday - 1st Inning - 17-7 +$552.50

lazzonya · May 23, 2008

la angels @ chicago white sox (8:11 ET) - NO - $86.25/75.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of angel games 40.82% of the time
angels score a run in the 1st inning in 20.41% of those
angels allow a run in the 1st inning in 34.69% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of chicago games 45.65% of the time
sox score a run in the 1st inning in 30.43% of those
sox allow a run in the 1st inning in 21.74% of those

current league averages are 51.75%, 30.29%, & 30.58%

in saunders' 9 starts, a run has been scored 3 times - he's allowed 2
in floyd's 8 starts, a run has been scored 2 times - he's allowed 1

*had 3 solid plays today (all NO's), but this is the pick of the litter. i'm showing that both saunders and floyd have each faced only 1 of the first 4 hitters on the opposing team in their career (9 total at bats). should favor the pitchers.

this play would be larger if it wasn't a "NO"

Current Leaders/Trends:

phillies - 69.39% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
rays - 40.43% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
giants - 47.92% of their games have been decided by 1 run
indians - 17.02% of their games have been decided by 1 run
rangers - score a run in the 1st inning 53.06% of games
phillies - allow a run in the 1st inning 46.94% of games
pirates - score a run in the 1st innning 14.89% of games
red sox - allow a run in the 1st inning 20.00% of games

YTD:

17-7 +$552.50

Current Streak:

7-1 +$305.00

ROI:

25.82%

wui130 · May 23, 2008

lazzonya,

i am confused on how this bet goes.

so what did you bet on this?

thanks
Wui

lazzonya · May 23, 2008

there will be NO score in the first inning of this game.

djmatt · May 23, 2008

I like it too.. on StL no score in the first as well

geeze · May 23, 2008

Laz,

Great pick.

Thank you!

lazzonya · May 23, 2008

djmatt said:
I like it too.. on StL no score in the first as well

i'm showing a slight lean to YES (mostly because of the line). st louie scores a ton of 1st inning runs, but lowe has been solid in the 1st this season. he's had trouble with kennedy and duncan in his career, hopefully they won't be available for fat albert to punch in.

wainwright has been a bit below average giving up 4 1st inning runs in 9 starts, and the cards have score in 7 of those games as well.

+110-YES has value here, but i'll be pulling for your NO.

peace

lazzonya

1sob · May 23, 2008

nice job on the cws game... i like betting 1st inning.. will be looking for your thread, btw nice record

ticktock00 · May 24, 2008

Thanks Lazzonya, great job. I like that you can back up your picks with some stats and not put them out of your ass like a few others around here.

How do you think you would fair if you were to us some type of progession system with your say your top three or four top picks you have a day?

Something like Sharks System 1st Inning plays if you have heard of that or a 1 3 2 6 progression bet. From what I've see tailing you the 1 3 2 6 progression looks pretty profitable.

Would you care to post your top 3 or 4 plays for a few days and only the ones that wish to use them can.

Thanks again and good luck as always...

lazzonya · May 24, 2008

i normally get 2 or 3 plays with value per day. i will start posting all plays in order and we will see how it goes.

i may be taking today off, as i'm heading to AC for the weekend. ill try and catch a late game. if not, tomorrow it is.

peace

lazzonya

bigtendominator · May 24, 2008

Great job on the 1st inning plays.

I got screwed last night on the Mets 1st inning play. I took the NO runs +145. I liked the fact that the Mets were facing a rook they had never seen. I was concerned about Colorado and boom and 0-2 pitch with 2 outs a 2 run homer. I knew I was toast when Atkins came to the plate, he was batting .500 vs lefties coming into the game.

lazzonya · May 24, 2008

bigtendominator said:
Great job on the 1st inning plays.

I got screwed last night on the Mets 1st inning play. I took the NO runs +145. I liked the fact that the Mets were facing a rook they had never seen. I was concerned about Colorado and boom and 0-2 pitch with 2 outs a 2 run homer. I knew I was toast when Atkins came to the plate, he was batting .500 vs lefties coming into the game.

exactly why i NEVER watch the first inning of a game i'm on. i make sure i'm doing work around the house until the bottom of the second. keeps the girlfriend happy and keeps my sanity.

today that looks like a leadoff double, ground out to the right side, and a sac fly!

GL2day

bigtendominator · May 24, 2008

lazzonya said:
exactly why i NEVER watch the first inning of a game i'm on. i make sure i'm doing work around the house until the bottom of the second. keeps the girlfriend happy and keeps my sanity.

today that looks like a leadoff double, ground out to the right side, and a sac fly!

GL2day

You are a lot smarter than me. You are right the tension on 1st inning plays is so great compared with a regular game.

jmania · May 25, 2008

sorry but which book do you guys use for this play?
i dont seem to find a book to have this 1st inning option..

Hip2Bsq · May 25, 2008

I have been playing a couple of these small. I been getting the lines at the Palms in Vegas. I agree about the tension but it is much easier than sweating out a 2-3 hour ballgame.

Friday - 1st Inning - 17-7 +$552.50

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