Mlb Road Woes Hurting Sharps Bottom Line

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[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
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[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]MLB ROAD WOES HURTING SHARPS BOTTOM LINE[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You regulars know that professional betting sharps in Las Vegas and Reno generally make their money by betting underdogs. The public loves favorites...the lines are influenced by public preference, so there's value on the underdogs.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]One of the side effects of that is that the sharps generally bet more on road teams than on home teams. Home field or home court advantage is worth something in all sports. That creates an imbalance where home teams are favored more often than road teams. In mismatches, home field or home court doesn't affect who's favored. In games where teams are evenly matched, it's the influence that gives the hosts the nod. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Though sharps have had a great year betting Unders in baseball (a trend that hasn't slowed down much because the weather was STILL cool in the Midwest and Northeast this week), they're having some trouble with road underdogs. For some reason, home teams have been DOMINANT so far this season.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Heading into Friday's games, home teams were 409-304 on the season. That's a 57% success rate. This is higher than normal. And, it's the equivalent of roughly -135 on the moneyline. Based on that record, if two even teams played each other...the "true" line would be the home team -135. Does that make any sense? In what would be a true coin flip at a neutral site, you can take the dog at around +120 on the road...and it would be a losing proposition so far this year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You often hear that the mark of a champion is the ability to win road games. The Boston Red Sox were a strong 45-36 last year away from home...and went on to win the World Series. Let's quickly run through last year's best road teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]2007 ROAD RECORDS
NY Mets: 47-34
Boston: 45-36
Cleveland: 44-37
Detroit: 43-38
NY Yankees: 42-39
Philadelphia: 42-39
San Diego: 42-40 (extra tie-breaker game)
Chicago Cubs: 41-40
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[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You gut a sense of the choke job performed by the Mets based on that list. They lost a bunch of home games late last season to blow a big divisional lead and miss the playoffs. The other teams on the list were either playoff teams, or playoff contenders (Detroit). The rule of thumb held up. The mark of a good team is the ability to win on the road. The mark of champions is to do better than just sneaking by .500.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Here's the list from 2008 through Thursday Night's games...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]2008 ROAD RECORDS SO FAR
Florida: 11-8
LA Angels: 14-10
Chicago White Sox: 14-13
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[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]That's it! Only three teams are over .500. Only two teams are more than a game over .500. And, even this list is a bit questionable because Florida got to play a couple of series at lowly Washington...while the White Sox just finished up a road trip that included visits to struggling Seattle and San Francisco. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Does anybody think we're on tap for a Marlins/Angels World Series? It's amazing how many good teams aren't doing anything on the road...and how many bad teams have really struggled. Remember, there are 30 (!) teams in the major leagues. Only two of those thirty are more than a game over .500 on the road heading into their weekend series.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's look at the worst road teams to see what's going on at the bottom of the barrel...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]2008 ROAD STRUGGLERS
San Diego: 8-19
Cincinnati: 7-18
Seattle: 7-17
Atlanta: 6-16
Colorado: 8-16
Pittsburgh: 9-15
Detroit: 9-15
San Francisco: 8-14
Milwaukee: 11-16
Cleveland: 8-13
Minnesota: 7-12
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[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]That's more than a third of the sport at five games below .500 or worse...with four teams already 10 games below .500 or worse even though we just recently passed the quarter poll of the season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]A few characteristics jump from the list:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Colorado, Cleveland, and San Diego reached the postseason last year (though it was just a one-and-done for the Padres), but have completely fallen off the map this year offensively. Colorado reached the World Series! Detroit was a contender last year, and the odds on favorite to win their division this year. Same story with them. You can't win on the road if you can't score. All of these teams have seem dramatic offensive collapses that could be traced to the lack of steroids in the game.

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  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Three teams from the fading NL West make the chart. And, you'll notice the absence of that division on the list of successful teams. Nobody in the NL West has a winning road record, even though they get to play each other on the road.

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  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]There's a mix of climate extremes above, which may be one of the contributing factors.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Whenever you see something odd happening, it's natural to try and figure out why. Sometimes it's just a random influence that should be ignored. Other times, there's something in play that handicappers might be able to take advantage of. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I'm not smart enough to know for sure what's going on here. Nobody is. It's a small sample size compared to the years and years and history we have to calculate what home field advantage "should" be worth. I do think there's a chance that the influences that have led to seeing so many Unders this year are also helping create this strong home field edge.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Temperatures have been very slow to warm up in the Northern cities. Most of this week's night games were played in the 50's. That's a surprise this deep into the season. Those dramatic differences between warm and cold weather sites could be encouraging the split we're seeing. The warm weather/dome teams are having trouble winning in the cold...the cold weather teams are having trouble winning when they play in hotter conditions. Over the full league you can find a few counterexamples. But, the theory holds up surprisingly well.

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  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The likely absence of steroids and HGH from the game may have killed a few of the offenses. This has led to rampant Unders...but has also created some teams that have no idea how to score runs on the road. They got in the habit of sitting back and waiting for homers all the time. Now that those aren't happening...NOTHING is happening! It's interesting that the most well-known aggressive baserunning "small ball" team is the Los Angeles Angels...the team with the best road record. They can manufacture runs in low scoring games, which gives them a leg up on teams who can't. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The combination of those two influences has created the following possibilities:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Scoring is down all over baseball because it's clean[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Scoring is REALLY down at cold weather sites because the ball doesn't carry[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Teams who had juiced sluggers are having trouble adjusting to various locales across the sport. Familiarity and enthusiastic crowds lead to success at home. Nothing works on the road. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Those are simplifications...but they might be at the heart of what's happening. What should you do about it?[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Keep betting Unders until you start to see high scoring games all over the card, or until you see temperatures in the 80's everywhere.

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  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Don't take any flyers on road underdogs because you think you see value. What determines "value" has changed this year because home field may be worth 30-35 cents instead of what you're used to. Lines that seem inflated by past standards are actually right. Until these dead offenses pick up the pace, there's no reason to bet on them when they play on the road.

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  • [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you get a natural grading toward an inexpensive home favorite, you might consider upping your unit-size on those games. There are a few teams that continue to be under-priced as home favorites...and they just keep winning. [/FONT]
 

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Yeah I see they come out with this article on memorial day weekend.

from my observation this particular weekend has been good for dogs in baseball...thats no shit.
 

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