2nd Quarter Analysis

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With the season a quarter finished, I thought I would share my opinions on what teams should produce a profit going forward (at least for the next quarter), and what teams may be good go-againsts as well.
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Teams to buy
1.Padres
YTD Return: -18.11 units
Comment:
This team is as out of favor as it gets right now. Producing the worst ROI in the league, and its hard to make a case on why they shouldn’t be. However, it is the handicapper’s job to analyze teams as an on going concern, and to decipher whether recent form is sustainable, or something that may by hard to sustain given the underlying fundamentals of the team. Simply put, the Padres are too good of a team to keep their current form sustained much longer. More importantly, the market appears to be animate about current form being real form, which should produce value opportunities going forward. These opportunities should last for a while, as this team lacks the “sexy lineup” for the public to ride any potential hot streak. Although the Padres lineup should not be deemed average, it should see slight improvement throughout the roster going forward (much better than deeming one or two players improving, as lineup depth is an undervalued variable). The Padres bullpen should see the most improvement. This is another very bullish sign, as this facet of a team is the least quantified (therefore the most value creating facet). Chris Young has been undervalued all year (so far the market has been right). However, at his current pricing, should he perform near his potential, he should generate a positive ROI until the market adjusts. The Padres have one of the most bullish 3<SUP>rd</SUP> order wins (D3) in the league.
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2. Indians
YTD Return: -10.62 Units
Comment:
This team has so many slumping big names in their lineup that the marketplace is actually starting to believe their lineup is mediocre. This is where I will start nibbling on big name lineups (usually such teams are consistently overvalued). Expect the Indians lineup to see improvement from top to bottom (much like the Padres) here on out. However, unlike the Padres, the market will be quick to adjust, making any potential alpha short lived (possibly only until all star break will the Indians be more undervalued than overvalued). What I like most about this teams potential is that they are no longer lopsided and heavily dependent on their lineup. There solid rotation and bullpen makes this team a candidate for a prolonged winning streak once their lineup plays to form. Sabathia’s slow start should get better, and marketplace is afraid to take any chances on him. Don’t be surprised to see his second quarter ROI to be the highest on the team. Their D1, D2, and D3 all show at least a 10% better adjusted performance than actuality- a very bullish indicator.
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Teams to bet against
Marlins
YTD Return:+11.49
Comment:
I would avoid this team like the plague in the second quarter. Rarely do you see the public jump on cellar teams playing well, but the Marlins have been overachieving for long enough for the public to bite. The Marlins bullpen should be the demise of this team going forward, as they are in actuality one of the worst and volatile in the league. Their current form which has put them near the top should not last much longer, and the market does not adjust fast to bullpen regressions. Olsen and Hendrickson are two southpaws pitching over their head as well, but are being priced as if current form is near real form. Possessing the highest D4 in the league shows smoke and mirrors as a culprit. With improvements from the Mets and Braves that should occur in the second quarter, the Marlins should not be above 500 going into the third quarter. A rich valuation on a bad team is the perfect recipe for a go against.
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Drays
YTD return: +9.96
I was all over the Drays Over win total once the lines initially came out. When I saw a 4 win adjusted by the end of March, I came to realize this team may actually be overvalued come seasons start. Producing near 10 units in one quarter is a sign that the market may be right about this team. Producing it with 10 wins over .500 is not very comforting for Dray backers, as it is a sign they did it despite a rich valuation. Going forward, this team should have a hard time with their market pricing. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Jackson</st1:place></st1:City>’s valuations have become out of hand, while the rest of the rotation is getting increasingly more pricey. Don’t get me wrong, this team should play well the rest of the way (should hover around .500). But price is everything, and the Drays price is simply to high to not take notice.
 

Rx. Junior
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Good read Buffet. How is your season going? Nice to see you posting.
GL the rest of the season.
 

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buffett,

Great post. Can you please post your picks again. Baseball is not the same without your insight.
 

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Always respect your thoughts but disagree with you on Cleveland. With Fausto Carmona out for at least a month that puts added pressure on their pitching staff. Cleveland's bullpen is 29th out of 30 with a collective era of 4.63 and a total of nine saves and seven blown saves. Also believe that Cliff Lee is overachieving in the first 1/3 of the season. Historically, he is a pitcher with a lifetime era of 4.38 and declining results since 2005 when he won 18 games.
 

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buffett
could you give a little insight as to what the D1,D2 ... indicate?

Clev - dont like the bullpen and cc would appear to be out of shape[ not as much as b. penny ]

tampa - prices now really out of hand, but Kazmir is dominate

texas - been riding both texas teams as i find them to both be underrated, along with the Jays. what do you think?
 

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buffett
could you give a little insight as to what the D1,D2 ... indicate?
 

Rx God
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thanks for posting your thoughts on these, seems logical to me.
 

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