Let's get to the games

By Adam Madison
ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end promo plug --> <!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> May 25, 2008, 5:27 PM

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->One of Monday's most intriguing pitching matchups is between Chad Billingsley and Ryan Dempster, two relatively similar pitchers.


Dempster has been the veteran surprise, with a 2.70 ERA (the last time he started games for a prolonged period of time, five years ago, he compiled a 6.54 ERA for the Reds), while Billingsley is the youngster showing off his stuff.


The two have similar high-strikeout, high-walk styles, and both have been able to keep the ball in the ballpark this season. In fact, given Billingsley's peripherals (60 strikeouts, just two home runs allowed), you could switch Dempster's raw numbers with Billingsley, and most wouldn't blink. And although Billingsley is the superior pitcher, he is assigned the tougher matchup, and it'd be a success if he could last six innings.





Also, Brandon Webb goes for his 10th win against the emerging Jair Jurrjens, Bartolo Colon and Scott Kazmir try to continue their successful returns, and King Felix takes on the best offense in the league (the Red Sox). Let's get to the games.



With just one home run allowed in 61 1/3 innings, Jair Jurrjens has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves.
The Diamondbacks have played much better when at home (.853 OPS) than on the road (.690 OPS) and are much tougher on southpaws than righties, so Jurrjens is a good bet to extend his streak of quality starts to nine. …
Thirty-three of Ryan Dempster's 53 strikeouts have come in his past four starts (26 1/3 innings), and he has dropped his ERA to a tidy 2.70.

Although losing Andruw Jones to the disabled list will actually improve the Dodgers' offense, the team is still without its best player (Rafael Furcal) and has not hit well this month.
Dempster won't resemble an elite pitcher much longer, but right now you can't argue with the results. … The Cubs are third in the majors in OBP and sixth in slugging, so Chad Billingsley's walk rate of five per nine innings probably isn't going to fly. The Cubs are just too good offensively, especially at home, where they rank first in OBP and slugging. …


Scott Kazmir should be able to rack up plenty of K's against the Rangers. They are fourth in the majors in strikeouts, and they struggle significantly against southpaws (.736 OPS) compared to righties (.830).

Hitters: Paul Byrd has a massive difference between his versus-lefty and versus-righty splits this season. Lefties have hit .324, with a .356 OBP and .577 slugging percentage against him this season, while righties have a microscopic .183/.216/.280 line against him.
Also, eight of his 11 home runs allowed have come against lefty batters. The White Sox have just three decent lefty bats -- Jim Thome, A.J. Pierzynski and Nick Swisher -- but they are second in the AL in home runs, and giving up homers has been a problem for Byrd. Start all your decent White Sox hitters, especially those with power. …

Even though he has struggled a bit against them this season (albeit in just 44 at-bats), Torii Hunter had a .900-plus OPS against southpaws each of the past three seasons.
More importantly, he gets to face one of the majors' worst lefties (pitchers?) this season in the 43-year-old Kenny Rogers, who looks close to done.

Does anybody else find the above compelling about Byrds discrepancy vs left handed hitters.

Lefties have hit .324, with a .356 OBP and .577 slugging percentage against him this season, while righties have a microscopic .183/.216/.280 line against him.


The White Sox have just three decent lefty bats -- Jim Thome, A.J. Pierzynski and Nick Swisher -- but they are second in the AL in home runs, and giving up homers has been a problem for Byrd.


Bet it now rather than 2mrw.