I somewhat disagree, Silver, especially in basketball. For example, if you have 10 point dog winning in the entire game, they get tied up late, get into OT, and then lose by 11 or more. Many times I felt I had the right side in hoops and got hosed in the end. However in baseball, I agree with you a little more. Tough beats are usually due to bullpen blowups and lack of clutch hitting which is part of the game.