AZ: Fade the Consensus Week 9

ArizonaBound · May 27, 2008

Fading the heavy tout consensus plays in MLB has been a good capping tool to use this year. Here are the results through week 8 if you followed blindly.

Using $100 as a base play

Week 1: 5-2, $395

week 2: 9-5, $515

week 3: 14-17, -$80

week 4: 23-8, $1705

week 5: 14-17, $-70

week 6: 14-17, $-265

week 7: 18-13, $665

week 8: 16-15, $620

Total through week 8: 106-90, +$3085 (average $385 per week)

Week 9 (started yesterday):
Monday 1-3, -200

BTW, the one flaw from the games I will be posting versus the data used above is that I used the final tout tally across the street when back tracking this data. I will not be available most days at 6:30pm to post so I will be posting based on the earlier data which is most often right on. I looked back and not very often does a game change signifiantly. I will look for the ones that are most lopsided as they have the least chance of changing just before game time. Good luck with whatever you chose to play.

AZ

candylicker · May 27, 2008

I like the AB. thanks

ArizonaBound · May 27, 2008

Wont be around much on Tuesdays after 3:00pm so here is the early leans but nothing official yet. Back tomm with results and Wed games:

NYY 0
Balt 3

Tor 0
Oakland 3

Det 0
LAA 3

Bos 4
Sea 0

Wash 0
SD 3 (edit, had backwards, correct now)

I put a small wager on each of these as see no worse than 2-3 and likey 3-2 plus juice

2dollarRazzplayer · May 27, 2008

What % would you use for a play? I have a friend who did something similar in football and he would look for 70%+ on one side.

Where are you getting your data also? Sportsinsights is a pretty good one I've heard?

ArizonaBound · May 28, 2008

Yamar, I use the service play tally. It is representative of the public. I don't have a lot of confidence in the websites that post that info because it seems really inconsistent.
Here was yesterdays (Tuesdays) final plays:
5 WINS
3 LOSSES
+$340

NBA

LAL-26 OVER-8
S.A-13 UNDER-9

MLB

W.SOX 3 OVER
CLEV-5 UNDER 2

NYY 3 OVER 2
BAL-13 UNDER-3
YANKEES LOSER -110

TEX-6 OVER 3
TB-3 UNDER

MIN-6 OVER
KC-7 UNDER

TOR 4 OVER 2
OAK-6 UNDER-2

DET 1 OVER 1
LAA-11 UNDER 1
DETROIT LOSER -100

BOS-13 OVER 1
SEA UNDER
SEATTLE WINNER +165

COL 2 OVER
PHI-2 UNDER

LAD-3 OVER
CUBS-7 UNDER-1

FLA 8 OVER
METS-1 UNDER 1
METS WINNER (FAVS OF -125 OR GREATER ARE 11-1 THIS SEASON) +100

PIT 1 OVER
CIN-7 UNDER
PITT LOSER -100

ATL-10 OVER 5
MIL-4 UNDER 1
MILW WINNER +115

HOU OVER
STL-5 UNDER
HOUSTON WINNER +125

SF-5 OVER
AZ-16 UNDER 2
SF WINNER +145

WASH-3 OVER
SD-6 UNDER

Drunkn247 · May 28, 2008

Arizona Bound said:
Yamar, I use the service play tally. It is representative of the public. I don't have a lot of confidence in the websites that post that info because it seems really inconsistent.
Here was yesterdays (Tuesdays) final plays:
5 WINS
3 LOSSES
+$340

NBA

LAL-26 OVER-8
S.A-13 UNDER-9

MLB

W.SOX 3 OVER
CLEV-5 UNDER 2

NYY 3 OVER 2
BAL-13 UNDER-3
YANKEES LOSER -110

TEX-6 OVER 3
TB-3 UNDER

MIN-6 OVER
KC-7 UNDER

TOR 4 OVER 2
OAK-6 UNDER-2

DET 1 OVER 1
LAA-11 UNDER 1
DETROIT LOSER -100

BOS-13 OVER 1
SEA UNDER
SEATTLE WINNER +165

COL 2 OVER
PHI-2 UNDER

LAD-3 OVER
CUBS-7 UNDER-1

FLA 8 OVER
METS-1 UNDER 1
METS WINNER (FAVS OF -125 OR GREATER ARE 11-1 THIS SEASON) +100

PIT 1 OVER
CIN-7 UNDER
PITT LOSER -100

ATL-10 OVER 5
MIL-4 UNDER 1
MILW WINNER +115

HOU OVER
STL-5 UNDER
HOUSTON WINNER +125

SF-5 OVER
AZ-16 UNDER 2
SF WINNER +145

WASH-3 OVER
SD-6 UNDER

Are you going to post the plays before the games so others can play them or are you just giving results?

ArizonaBound · May 28, 2008

Drunkn...I will be posting the most recent update when I am off the computer for the day. Most days that is around 5pm eastern but Tuesdays it is usually earlier. By 5pm or so the tally does not change much. If you or anyone else is interested in following it would be just as easy for you to get the tally yourself as late in the day as you are around. I posted where you can find the info in last weeks thread.
I will continue to update most days as I want people to see just how poorly many of these touts do. I do not blindly follow the tally myself but am getting more and more comfortable with it since I am seeing the results daily. For example, I was going to play the Cubs today, but not now. It is the heaviest consensus of the touts. They may win today anway but I won't be riding along with that many touts loving them. I won't play the Dodgers either because I really do like the Cubs but the results don't lie and I don't like to go against the trend unless I like the other side.
Here is the latest update:

NBA (830PMEST) NHL (8PMEST)

pisstedon- 7 OVER-1 REDWINGS- OVER 3
celtics - 2 UNDER-6 PITTBUG-1 UNDER

MLB
---------------------------------------------

ROCKED-1 OVER- 2 BRAVES-1 OVER
PHILLY- 2 UNDER- BREWER-5 UNDER-1

FLA- 1 OVER MINN-1 OVER-1
METS -3 UNDER-1 K.C.-2 UNDER-1

PITT -3 OVER-3 DODGERS OVER
CINCY-6 UNDER CUBBIES-7 UNDER

NYY- 4 OVER-1 TIGERS-3 OVER-1
BAL- 4 UNDER-2 L.A.A.-3 UNDER-1
---------------------------------------------

HOUSTON-3 OVER-2
STLOUIS-5 UND-1

GIANTS-2 OVER 930 PM EST
DBACKS-7 UNDER-2

B. JAYS-2 OVER -1
OAKLAND-4 UNDER-2

BOS-2 OVER-1
SEA-5 UNDER-1

WASH-2 OVER
PADRES 4 UNDER-1

Dodgers, Giants, and Braves look like they will be plays. Will update later.

Drunkn247 · May 28, 2008

Arizona Bound said:
Drunkn...I will be posting the most recent update when I am off the computer for the day. Most days that is around 5pm eastern but Tuesdays it is usually earlier. By 5pm or so the tally does not change much. If you or anyone else is interested in following it would be just as easy for you to get the tally yourself as late in the day as you are around. I posted where you can find the info in last weeks thread.
I will continue to update most days as I want people to see just how poorly many of these touts do. I do not blindly follow the tally myself but am getting more and more comfortable with it since I am seeing the results daily. For example, I was going to play the Cubs today, but not now. It is the heaviest consensus of the touts. They may win today anway but I won't be riding along with that many touts loving them. I won't play the Dodgers either because I really do like the Cubs but the results don't lie and I don't like to go against the trend unless I like the other side.
Here is the latest update:

NBA (830PMEST) NHL (8PMEST)

pisstedon- 7 OVER-1 REDWINGS- OVER 3
celtics - 2 UNDER-6 PITTBUG-1 UNDER

MLB
---------------------------------------------

ROCKED-1 OVER- 2 BRAVES-1 OVER
PHILLY- 2 UNDER- BREWER-5 UNDER-1

FLA- 1 OVER MINN-1 OVER-1
METS -3 UNDER-1 K.C.-2 UNDER-1

PITT -3 OVER-3 DODGERS OVER
CINCY-6 UNDER CUBBIES-7 UNDER

NYY- 4 OVER-1 TIGERS-3 OVER-1
BAL- 4 UNDER-2 L.A.A.-3 UNDER-1
---------------------------------------------

HOUSTON-3 OVER-2
STLOUIS-5 UND-1

GIANTS-2 OVER 930 PM EST
DBACKS-7 UNDER-2

B. JAYS-2 OVER -1
OAKLAND-4 UNDER-2

BOS-2 OVER-1
SEA-5 UNDER-1

WASH-2 OVER
PADRES 4 UNDER-1

Dodgers, Giants, and Braves look like they will be plays. Will update later.

any updates...i have no clue where to find the tally info to do my own. looked back in old threads couldnt find anything

ArizonaBound · May 28, 2008

Last update for today:

Pitt 3
Cincy 8
PITT +125

LAD 0
CUBS 10
LAD +155

SF 2
AZ 8
SF +150

CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR AS OF THIS WRITING: ATLANTA AND BOSTON

GOOD LUCK WITH WHATEVER YOU DECIDE

Richierich+ · May 28, 2008

So your playing only Atlanta and Boston and not the dodgers where there is a big difference?
Glad i saw this as i was going to play Milw. and the Cubs. I realize these teams could still win but will wait and fight another day.
Thanks again AB

Richierich+ · May 28, 2008

By the way, do they have them tallied or do you do it?

ArizonaBound · May 28, 2008

The members over there pitch in and do the tally and update it every so often.
Sorry if there is confusion. NO, not playing Atl and Boston. I was pointing out that both of those plays have heavy tout action but not yet at the guidelines I use. Here are my guidelines:

1. Must be 5 tout differential (So 8-3 is a play but 8-4 is not)

2. Must be at least double touts on one side (9-4 is a play but 9-5 is not)

3. More than 5 touts on both side and I pass on the game, even if rule 1 and 2 qualify it as a play (13-6 is not a play even though rule 1 and 2 are met because the fade side has 6 touts on it. I don't like plays that have that much action on it.

Using these 3 criteria has been VERY consistent this year and is easy to follow once you start looking at the numbers. ALWAYS FADE the heavy action of the touts.

I almost feel comfortable to blindly play this system for a modest amount but am still being selective. I actually liked AZ and the Cubs today but am leaving them alone now because of this. They might both win but I can live with that. I will be playing Pitt as I had it as a no play. I will put my standard 1 unit play on it.BTW, I like Milwaukee and will stick with a play on them, FWIT.

GL

Richierich+ · May 28, 2008

AB that clarifies it a lot thanks.
BOL to you tonight

ArizonaBound · May 28, 2008

YOU too richierich. Be back tomm.

2dollarRazzplayer · May 29, 2008

Just registered over there , awaiting being able to post.

Just a few questions: Where are the guys over there getting the information is my question? Where do these tout picks come from, people posting on the site?

I am considering paying for sportsinsights.com which offers a service for $100 a month that tracks the betting of about 10 online books, as well as several Vegas casinos.

It gives %s on how many bets are each side. Is it safe to say that if we have 70%+ on one side, that would qualify as a play with your guys\data?

Best of luck....my brother did this method with football and NCAAB Tourney with great results. I always thought baseball didn;t get quite enough action to yield the same high numbers of bets being placed on each side, but I would like to try the method out for small units.

2dollarRazzplayer · May 29, 2008

Arizona Bound said:
The members over there pitch in and do the tally and update it every so often.
Sorry if there is confusion. NO, not playing Atl and Boston. I was pointing out that both of those plays have heavy tout action but not yet at the guidelines I use. Here are my guidelines:

1. Must be 5 tout differential (So 8-3 is a play but 8-4 is not)

2. Must be at least double touts on one side (9-4 is a play but 9-5 is not)

3. More than 5 touts on both side and I pass on the game, even if rule 1 and 2 qualify it as a play (13-6 is not a play even though rule 1 and 2 are met because the fade side has 6 touts on it. I don't like plays that have that much action on it.

Using these 3 criteria has been VERY consistent this year and is easy to follow once you start looking at the numbers. ALWAYS FADE the heavy action of the touts.

I almost feel comfortable to blindly play this system for a modest amount but am still being selective. I actually liked AZ and the Cubs today but am leaving them alone now because of this. They might both win but I can live with that. I will be playing Pitt as I had it as a no play. I will put my standard 1 unit play on it.BTW, I like Milwaukee and will stick with a play on them, FWIT.

GL

Not to hijack your idea here, I think I'm understanding a bit more of what you are doing but I'm a bit confused. Why would you want an to use an extremely small sample size instead of a larger one?

Isn't the point to bet with the books because they ultimately know more than the public does and they set lines accordingly? What ya think about my sportsinsights idea?

ArizonaBound · May 29, 2008

good question Yamar. Since I work long days I do most of my capping while at work. My work has many filters that limit my ability to access many gambling related web sites. The tout information to me is representitive of the average joe and the results have been successful. I did some back tracking for CBB and the results were encouraging as well.
For me the info is easily available and free. Add in that there are a few touts whose opinion I do give some credibility to and I prefer not to be on the other side of a few of these guys.
I think there are plenty of ways to get the same information but which do you trust is the question. Take a look at Bigbookies play of the year thread in the NBA forum. ONe poster quotes like 3 different web sites for betting percentages and they are not consistent. I trust the tout info myself.

I have heard of people using sportsinsights and LVSC and had success, but I have not. Bottom line for me, if you can be on the side of the book when there is heavy action on the other side you will win more than lose over the long haul. It still requires discipline and money management but it is a way to profit long term.

ArizonaBound · May 29, 2008

Wed results from my posted plays 1-2, -.5 Again a losing night but the money is managed well with a +150 dog winning. LAD were 6 inches away from beating the cubs, but those things work out over the long haul

The final tout tally also had Atlanta, Houston, and Boston that all lost. Washington did win however.

If you played all of the games you would have went:
2-5, -$230

Richierich+ · May 29, 2008

AB,
"Bottom line for me, if you can be on the side of the book when there is heavy action on the other side you will win more than lose over the long haul. It still requires discipline and money management but it is a way to profit long term".

You are absolutely correct

ArizonaBound · May 29, 2008

Thursday first play

Toronto +120 falls into the system (touts are 6-1 on Oakland)

Unfortunately I already have a small play on Oakland but would have passed probably. Again, just tracking and selectively playing or using as a tool. Wish I would have blindly played from day 1....hindsight is 20/20