[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]D[/FONT][FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]IRECT FROM NEVADA[/FONT][FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]SHARPS WATCHING METS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've noticed over the years that most sharps stick with their numbers or their gut feel when handicapping baseball. They don't put much stock in what's happened the past few days. If a good team loses a couple, they don't imagine a collapse is at hand. If a bad team wins a couple, they don't think they've discovered the next big thing.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]But, it some cases, the sharps do pay close attention. The Mets are going through one of those right now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Here are the elements that have to be in play to get the sharps attention:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]What's been so wrong with the Mets? They're worse on offense and defense from this point last season. Among the issues:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They'll be watching the situation closely. And, as I mentioned earlier, they could very well start riding the Mets if a managerial change is made. Some of the slumpers may start hitting once chemistry issues are resolved. A new manager is likely to keep Heilman from pitching until he puts something together too. It's a competitive league. I don't see the Mets as a 100-win team for another manager. They couldn't certainly go back to being a contender in a tight division with just a few tweaks here and there.[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]SHARPS WATCHING METS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've noticed over the years that most sharps stick with their numbers or their gut feel when handicapping baseball. They don't put much stock in what's happened the past few days. If a good team loses a couple, they don't imagine a collapse is at hand. If a bad team wins a couple, they don't think they've discovered the next big thing.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]But, it some cases, the sharps do pay close attention. The Mets are going through one of those right now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Here are the elements that have to be in play to get the sharps attention:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team that was expected to be a divisional or championship contender has to be losing over a several day period.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They have to be losing consistently as a favorite (because sharps love betting on underdogs, they're always looking for vulnerable favorites to attack).
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They have to be getting killed in the local media...and it has to be a media that matters. If Minnesota was picked to win the AL Central, and the St. Paul press is disappointed about a slump...that's not going to mean anything to the sharps. When a big market team has a soap opera being covered by big market media, then it's a bigger factor. The implosion is bigger if it happens. And, the public just keeps betting the big city favorite figuring they can't possibly keep losing.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It helps if the manager is under fire. Some teams will rally around the manager when that happens. If the team doesn't rally, you can pretty much figure they're not going to play hard for the guy. Sharps will bet against a team like this until a managerial change, then they'll start backing the new guy because the players will be enthusiastic again. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The Mets were expected to win the NL East this year, and were the odds on favorite to win the whole National League. They should have made the playoffs last year...then they added Johan Santana to the rotation! They weren't quite the Yankees of the NL East in terms of expenditures...but they were spending big money in hopes of buying a championship. This was supposed to be "The Year of the Mets" in the National League. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Is this a FAVORITE that keeps losing? The Mets are 3-8 the last 11 times they've been favored at -120 or more. They're only three games under .500 for the season at 23-26, but they're almost minus NINE betting units because they're favored by so much so often.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The local media has been killing the Mets ever since they choked away the divisional championship last year. You probably recall they went 1-6 on a season ending homestand after they seemingly had things wrapped up. The sharks were circling just in case something bad was going to happen again. It has, and it's a BIG story because of all the money spent in the offseason.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]This manager is definitely under fire. Willie Randolph has been criticized for his low-key approach. People wanted a tantrum last year during the collapse and he just wouldn't do that. Now, when things are going bad again, they want fire on the bench. Randolph learned at the feet of Joe Torre. Torre doesn't throw tantrums. What's disturbing to Mets fans most may be recent developments about how the team has splintered into different groups. It's hard to have chemistry when parts of your team don't talk to other parts. When this became public, Randolph's future became more in doubt. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]What's been so wrong with the Mets? They're worse on offense and defense from this point last season. Among the issues:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Johan Santana has been good, but not quite the superstar they had hoped for. He's been home run prone, and has had a knack for making mistakes in close games. His ERA is solid. The team's won-lost record with him has been generic for an ace.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The #3, #4, and #5 starters have all been below average for those slots. There's no reason to list everybody. Santana has been good, but not Hall of Fame fantastic. John Maine has been solid. Nobody else has been. The Mets are in peril whenever anyone besides Santana and Maine are on the mound...and they're far from automatic with those guys.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Pedro Martinez hasn't been able to pitch. He's a very expensive yard ornament right now, and might end up being that way all season. Much of the optimism before the season revolved around the 1-2 punch of Santana and Martinez. It's not going to happen.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Set-up man Aaron Heilman has had 24 appearances to work on his 5.81 ERA. The Mets have lost many games in the middle innings because Heilman has allowed opponents to pull away.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]First Baseman Carlos Delgado is hitting .215, with an on-base percentage below .300 and a slugging percentage below .400. Most teams have a first baseman who can hit. You typically need a good hitter just to "break even" in your matchup with anyone else. The Mets are getting KILLED at this position. The rest of the guys just can't make up what Delgado is costing the team with those horrible numbers.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Carlos Beltran only has 4 home runs, after hitting 33 last year, and 41 the year before. You'll have to draw your own conclusions about what may have changed about his physical make-up![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They'll be watching the situation closely. And, as I mentioned earlier, they could very well start riding the Mets if a managerial change is made. Some of the slumpers may start hitting once chemistry issues are resolved. A new manager is likely to keep Heilman from pitching until he puts something together too. It's a competitive league. I don't see the Mets as a 100-win team for another manager. They couldn't certainly go back to being a contender in a tight division with just a few tweaks here and there.[/FONT]
