Math and Money Management Lesson

Barney44 · May 29, 2008

Any handicapper that hits 60 -65 percent of all plays is amazing. I think we can all agree with that premise. Now assume you only pay for winning picks, not losers and they cost you 25.00 per pick. Average Wager of 100.00. Also average play has juice of -140.

Capper goes 60-40 Results in Winning 6000, Losing 5600, Picks cost 1500 for a net loss of 1100. Even if the picks were free you would only win 400.00 and you went 20 games over 500 in a long period of time.

Now lets assume capper goes 65-35 (Amazing record). Winning 6500, losing 4900 Picks cost you 1625.00 for a total net of NEGATIVE 25.00.

Just remeber these numbers when you play www.ulaybigassjuiceandhopeyouwin.com

I am not downplaying past history, but nobody and I mean nobody will hit over 65 percent in the long run. A 20-4 streak is great but it is a marathon and 20-4 will not become 40-8 but probably will become 32-16. Look before you walk blindly.

ticktock00 · May 29, 2008

I've done pretty well since following the RX but I know I have shortcomings when it comes to money management when betting on sports.

If folks wouldn't mind sharing what are some of the better money management technigues that have worked for you on sports betting?

Kojack84 · May 29, 2008

$25 per pick?

Barney44 · May 29, 2008

Yes 25.00

That is what one popular site charges for winning picks. Does it seem hi or low to you KOJACK. My analysis was based on actual figures.

Kojack84 said:
$25 per pick?

B.S.S. · May 29, 2008

what if your betting a dime and up close to 30k - 1k for 2 months of service.
what if your up 19k betting a dime a day on one particular capper costing approx 500$ so far for bases...
thats exactly where i want to be.
if your betting 50 to a 100 on a play than of course its not gonna be worth it to buy plays but if your betting a nickel, dime or more than it is

Kojack84 · May 29, 2008

Barney44 said:
That is what one popular site charges for winning picks. Does it seem hi or low to you KOJACK. My analysis was based on actual figures.

Oh, I don't actually know, I would never pay for picks.

If that's what it actually costs thats just dumb to pay that much for a pick if you only bet $100.

Barney44 · May 29, 2008

Good points

Good points BSS, but I think dime players are few and far between overall. Also, statistically speaking, everything comes back to the mean. Ted Williams was the last guy to hit 400. Now any body can get hot for a month or even a quarter but they usually revert back to who they are.

B.S.S. said:
what if your betting a dime and up close to 30k - 1k for 2 months of service.
what if your up 19k betting a dime a day on one particular capper costing approx 500$ so far for bases...
thats exactly where i want to be.
if your betting 50 to a 100 on a play than of course its not gonna be worth it to buy plays but if your betting a nickel, dime or more than it is

Barney44 · May 30, 2008

A little follow up.

was a big hammer fan but have jumped off and this parlay calculator will show you why:

Bet 100 to win 135.00 his way

Bet 100 to win 725 against his two picks

Bet both his picks staright and you lose 375 ttrying to win 200

TOO MUCH JUICE IS TOO MUCH JUICE

let me ask you guys, how many of you guys play football games at -175 or -200, probably very very few. You need to be careful as to what you play and also do some of your own homework. Last time out ZITO was a huge dog and coverred blowing a lot of tout picks. As far as Harang goes, he pitched 4 innings of relief for Dusty the other day in teh Padres marathon. You all need to doa little work and more importantly, if you want to play these huge juice games, throw a fraction of your regular betting units on it so you can get that action feel. Just do not throw good hard earned/won money on them.

OrionSky said:
Ok Here's The Hammer - Parlay time!!

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections

Date: Thursday, May 29, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The Hammer had an OUTSTANDING year in baseball last year as he was 81-38 for the season +$5210 playing just $100 per game! My DIME PLAYERS made over $50,000 last year with my baseball selections! Today we are featuring our PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB PARLAY WINNER! You can get this GUARANTEED PARLAY WINNER for just $25 and you will pay only after you win! 28-20 MLB RUN! 5/29/2008

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB PARLAY WINNER
Cincinnati w/Harang -175 7:10 EST
Arizona w/Johnson -200 9:40 EST

Let's have a better night :toast:

Drunkn247 · May 30, 2008

If your paying for picks your an idiot...you can get them here for free. All services are a fade. There is maybe one service I would like to be with and that is RAS for college hoops

ScreaminPain · May 30, 2008

This is an interesting topic. I think it can be summed up with this sentence.

To earn excess profits in the gambling environment, one must have either information that is not available to the gereral public, or must have superior ability to process information that is public.

One needs to have an edge to profit in sports. You probably don't have a bet when the reason you like a team is based on information that is available and easily understood by all bettors. Ways to get an edge is usually divided into three categories:
1: breaking news
2: superior use of existing data
3: motivation

Of course, a good money mangement method is paramount for long term success. But money management only comes into play when you have an edge. In terms of what is mathematically optimal, if you have no edge, then your optimal bet size is zero.

With proper money management restraints, no one every went broke betting winners.