[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]BASEBALL MARKETS SLOW TO REACT TO INJURY NEWS[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The Colorado Rockies are a little bit shorthanded this week. They've been dealing with injuries all season long. When their series with the Mets this past weekend ended, the media was talking about how the team is missing about half of its key starters, as well as other fringe contributors.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Something about playing a team from New York always puts you in the spotlight![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You would have thought that this news would have affected the baseball wagering markets in Las Vegas and Reno a bit. Colorado was a bad team...and a bad road team...about to go on a road trip...while playing shorthanded. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's review...after the Mets series:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]MONDAY: [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bad team
Worse ROAD team
Shorthanded
Playing top notch opposition. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Only three lines were over -170. All four should have been over -200. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Yes, mistakes are made by oddsmakers and sharps. The lines don't always reflect the true odds of what's likely to happen on the field. That always seems obvious to me, but I'm surprised by how many people think otherwise. They mythologize the oddsmakers as all-powerful beings who know everything there is to know about the teams. They mythologize the sharps as guys with "inside" information that helps them make smart bets on that particular day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've been on both sides of the fence. As an oddsmaker, I do my best. But, I don't believe for a second that I'm perfect and incapable of error. As a bettor, I try my hardest to find value spots to attack. It's a world of incomplete information, so it's impossible to cover all the bases.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]This particular combination of factors wasn't hard to see though. Colorado was a bad team going through an injury period. The market literally NEVER responded to the injury situation during the Philadelphia series, or in Game One of the Chicago series. Maybe the numbers will shoot up this weekend. At some point the lines will be too high for the true odds. For now, it's important for you to remember that when major league teams are going bad like this, the lines generally don't capture the expectations very well.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]And...PAY ATTENTION TO INJURY NEWS![/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]BASEBALL MARKETS SLOW TO REACT TO INJURY NEWS[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The Colorado Rockies are a little bit shorthanded this week. They've been dealing with injuries all season long. When their series with the Mets this past weekend ended, the media was talking about how the team is missing about half of its key starters, as well as other fringe contributors.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Something about playing a team from New York always puts you in the spotlight![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You would have thought that this news would have affected the baseball wagering markets in Las Vegas and Reno a bit. Colorado was a bad team...and a bad road team...about to go on a road trip...while playing shorthanded. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's review...after the Mets series:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Colorado was 20-30 in the standings, playing .400 ball in a year where hardly anybody was playing that badly. They were certifiably a bad team.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Colorado was 8-16 on the road, playing .333 ball away from home. This should have been attracting attention. They had a losing record at home, which is hard to do this year (see previous article about great home records in 2008), and they were losing two-thirds of the time on the road. The break even mark for that is -200. If you laid -200 on all Colorado road opponents this year, you would have broken even.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Colorado was down about 11 betting units on the year, which is very bad for just a third of the season. They weren't the only horrible team. San Diego, Seattle, and Detroit are also down a lot of units. It's a short list. It's just not that hard to notice when a team is playing badly...particularly when it's a team that made the World Series the prior season![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]MONDAY: [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Philadelphia (-215) beat Colorado 20-5
Considering that all Colorado opponents should have been -200 at that point, this line seemed a little low with the shorthanded visitor. Unsurprisingly, the jet lagged Rockies got slaughtered. It was one of the most one-sided games we've seen all season in baseball. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Philadelphia (-165) beat Colorado 7-4
The line went down! Kendrick of the Phillies doesn't get a lot of respect, so the price settled in a spot that seemed "high" for Kendrick" but "low" for the Rockies true prospects. It was another loss for the shorthanded visitors. Dropping their road record to 8-18 on the season. Think about this for a second. What should the line be when a divisional contender is hosting a horrible team from a bad division? Now, take out four keys starters for that horrible team![/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Philadelphia (-145) beat Colorado 6-1
Why is the line going down? This is what I mean about the market not reacting properly to the Colorado injury news. After dropping two games by a combined 27-9 margin, it should have been clear to the whole world that the Rockies were having trouble fielding a competitive lineup...particularly on the road against a good team. Forget the World Series last year. That's old news. The current bunch taking the field were playing like a 65-97 type team, or even worse. It's not a real major league team because of the injuries. And, they were throwing question marks at pitcher. For some reason, bettors were looking at the starters for Philly and thinking "that price seems too high" rather than realizing that a major league team was playing a minor league team. Philadelphia sweeps the series, winning scoreboard 33-10.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Chicago (-150) beat Colorado 8-4
Colorado trades an NL East contender for the first place team in the NL Central. The Cubs were a solid 22-8 at home entering the game, while the Rockies were 8-19 on the road. At the beginning of the week, the math said Colorado opponents should be about -200 when hosting the Rockies. Shorthanded Colorado was 0-3 since then! Now they're facing the pennant contending Cubs rather than a "generic" opponent. And the line was -150. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bad team
Worse ROAD team
Shorthanded
Playing top notch opposition. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Only three lines were over -170. All four should have been over -200. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Yes, mistakes are made by oddsmakers and sharps. The lines don't always reflect the true odds of what's likely to happen on the field. That always seems obvious to me, but I'm surprised by how many people think otherwise. They mythologize the oddsmakers as all-powerful beings who know everything there is to know about the teams. They mythologize the sharps as guys with "inside" information that helps them make smart bets on that particular day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've been on both sides of the fence. As an oddsmaker, I do my best. But, I don't believe for a second that I'm perfect and incapable of error. As a bettor, I try my hardest to find value spots to attack. It's a world of incomplete information, so it's impossible to cover all the bases.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]This particular combination of factors wasn't hard to see though. Colorado was a bad team going through an injury period. The market literally NEVER responded to the injury situation during the Philadelphia series, or in Game One of the Chicago series. Maybe the numbers will shoot up this weekend. At some point the lines will be too high for the true odds. For now, it's important for you to remember that when major league teams are going bad like this, the lines generally don't capture the expectations very well.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]And...PAY ATTENTION TO INJURY NEWS![/FONT]
