Overpriced Pitchers Going Foward

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With this season deviating from fundamental form compared to most seasons, it is no surprise you are going to get an influx of starting pitchers that have produced quite surprising ROI’s, whether construed on the upside or on the downside. Although during time frames in which results can lack fundamental rhyme or reason can be painful during the moment, it also can possess great opportunities on a forward looking basis, as the market is setup to miscalculate short term performances that can be mistakenly be construed as sustainable. Here are some pitchers that can possess good fades for the next couple of months, until the marketplace realizes the first quarter may not repeat itself.
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Edinson Volquez leads the league in ERA, and is ranked 5<SUP>th</SUP> in starting pitcher units won, and has the stuff to be something special. However, young power pitchers with high strikeout rates never fly under the public radar; rather is something that the public will flock too. Volquez should regress here on out. Being a flyball pitcher throughout his minor and short pro career, his abnormally high groundball rate should decrease, especially with his arm tiring out as the season progresses (never threw more than 130 innings per given year). The <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:place><st1:placeName>Reds</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType>Park</st1:placeType></st1:place> will not be forgiving for an increased fly ball rate, nor potential dead arm. Volquez should come with a 25 cent premium that should will slow to adjust; giving him a high negative expected ROI.
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Edwin Jackson may be the only pitcher currently more overpriced than Volquez. Much like Volquez, his power pitching style and high expectations has the marketplace flocking to his current hot streak. Unlike Volquez, his is backed by an overpriced lineup, magnifying his inflated title. <st1:City><st1:place>Jackson</st1:place></st1:City> has already significantly regressed, but his regression has been hidden by run support and being able to get out of unsustainable jams. His 1.58 May WHIP and increased BABIP will be the demise of an overpriced pitcher that is becoming more overpriced per given start, as the market is riding the Rays, hot streak. With the marketplace continuing to ride the Rays, they should be slow to adjust to a regression, creating a prolonged premium in his games.
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Other Pitchers with expected negative forward looking ROI’s
Matsusaka- The luckier he gets, the more people flock to him. Not much of an improvement off last years performance, expect pitching better out of the stretch, a variable that lacks structural improvement compared to other pitching variables.
<o:p> </o:p>
Lee- Pitching way over his head, and more importantly pitching over markets high expectations. With an underachieving lineup and bullpen, any regression can lead to a prolonged losing streak.
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Contreras- The market place says its 2005 all over again. I say not so fast. Its hard to turn it around again at his age for an entire season, and with 3 of his last four second halves coming with a five plus ERA, and Contreras is primed for regression. Even his 2005 season came with a twice as many home runs per inning than this season. He is pitching over his head, and is priced with a premium.
 

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BG - Great to see you posting again. Always interesting to read your perspective. Wish you would post a little more.
All the Best


:dancefool :money8:
 

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BG - Great to see you posting again. Always interesting to read your perspective. Wish you would post a little more.
All the Best


:dancefool :money8:

I was about to say the same thing.
Welcome back BG.
 

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With this season deviating from fundamental form compared to most seasons, it is no surprise you are going to get an influx of starting pitchers that have produced quite surprising ROI’s, whether construed on the upside or on the downside. Although during time frames in which results can lack fundamental rhyme or reason can be painful during the moment, it also can possess great opportunities on a forward looking basis, as the market is setup to miscalculate short term performances that can be mistakenly be construed as sustainable. Here are some pitchers that can possess good fades for the next couple of months, until the marketplace realizes the first quarter may not repeat itself.
<o:p> </o:p>
Edinson Volquez leads the league in ERA, and is ranked 5<sup>th</sup> in starting pitcher units won, and has the stuff to be something special. However, young power pitchers with high strikeout rates never fly under the public radar; rather is something that the public will flock too. Volquez should regress here on out. Being a flyball pitcher throughout his minor and short pro career, his abnormally high groundball rate should decrease, especially with his arm tiring out as the season progresses (never threw more than 130 innings per given year). The <st1:place><st1:placename>Reds</st1:placename> <st1:placetype>Park</st1:placetype></st1:place> will not be forgiving for an increased fly ball rate, nor potential dead arm. Volquez should come with a 25 cent premium that should will slow to adjust; giving him a high negative expected ROI.

I will agree with entire analysis, hard to dispute any of this logic. Teams seeing volquez for the second time will be particularly enticing.
<o:p> </o:p>
Edwin Jackson may be the only pitcher currently more overpriced than Volquez. Much like Volquez, his power pitching style and high expectations has the marketplace flocking to his current hot streak. Unlike Volquez, his is backed by an overpriced lineup, magnifying his inflated title. <st1:city><st1:place>Jackson</st1:place></st1:city> has already significantly regressed, but his regression has been hidden by run support and being able to get out of unsustainable jams. His 1.58 May WHIP and increased BABIP will be the demise of an overpriced pitcher that is becoming more overpriced per given start, as the market is riding the Rays, hot streak. With the marketplace continuing to ride the Rays, they should be slow to adjust to a regression, creating a prolonged premium in his games.

Dont think jackson is individually overpriced [yet], just part of the rays run up in general. strange days indeed when we have to look to fade the rays, it will take some gittin used to, surprising how quickly the market reacted to this move. will look to fade jackson, especially if favored on road.
<o:p> </o:p>
Other Pitchers with expected negative forward looking ROI’s
Matsusaka- The luckier he gets, the more people flock to him. Not much of an improvement off last years performance, expect pitching better out of the stretch, a variable that lacks structural improvement compared to other pitching variables.
<o:p> </o:p>

A popular pic, would be my number one. He throws too many pitches/walks. prices alone would make him a consistent fade.

Lee- Pitching way over his head, and more importantly pitching over markets high expectations. With an underachieving lineup and bullpen, any regression can lead to a prolonged losing streak.
<o:p> </o:p>
Seems the regression has already started, had no where to go but down.
will fade if prices stay high.


Contreras- The market place says its 2005 all over again. I say not so fast. Its hard to turn it around again at his age for an entire season, and with 3 of his last four second halves coming with a five plus ERA, and Contreras is primed for regression. Even his 2005 season came with a twice as many home runs per inning than this season. He is pitching over his head, and is priced with a premium.


I am a believer in contreras, will be careful with him based on your comments. 6 starts in may all as a dog, on every one of them.
 

Uno

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freaking buffett always showing up and posting just enough to remind everyone he is around and not posting his plays.
 

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Good to see a writeup from you. Very informative as usual.
Keepum coming!
 

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