AZ: Fade the Consensus Week 10

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Using $100 as a base play

Week 1: 5-2, $395

week 2: 9-5, $515

week 3: 14-17, -$80

week 4: 23-8, $1705

week 5: 14-17, $-70

week 6: 14-17, $-265

week 7: 18-13, $665

week 8: 16-15, $620

week 9: 19-25, -$55

Total through week 8: 125-115, +$3035 (average $337 per week)

Interesting, there were 44 plays last week, about 15 more than normal. Fortunately for the touts and fav players there were a lot of very close games that ended up going their way. It happens. I am getting more and more comfortable with this fading strategy and will play more of those games starting this week, especially following a losing week. It just makes sense that over the long haul there are not going to be very many weeks that bury you. If you can be patient and content with a break even or very small down week than it will pay off over the long haul.

So far there have been 240 plays in 9 weeks. This averages out to about 4 plays per day. Certainly manageable if you have solid money management skills. If you don't it doesn't matter what system of picking winners you use, you will be broke and confused as to why.

Good luck with whatever you choose.

Will post today's plays later.

AZ
 

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No, sorry I do not Bandon. I do not use ROI so never bothered to calculate. Give me the forumula to compute and I will figure it out, or use the numbers and share if you'd like.
 

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I am not in the office today but can do it tomm. 75% on risking 100 as they are dogs. 15% are small favs and 10% are mid sized favs. Probably a respectable ROI.
 

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I'm sure it's respectable.

Using -115 for "small faves" and -140 for "mid-size favorites" it looks like it would be about 11.9%. Definitely worth playing.
 

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Day 1, Monday June 2

THERE ARE SEVERAL GAMES THAT WILL NO QUESTION BE FADES WITH A COUPLE OTHERS CLOSE. USE AS YOU WISH.

MLB

CIN 1 OVER 1
PHI 12 UNDER
CINCY +125



FLA 2 OVER 2
ATL 11 UNDER 1
FLORIDA +140



PIT 1 OVER
STL 3 UNDER

CUBS 2 OVER
SD 2 UNDER 2

COL 2 OVER
LAD 4 UNDER 1

METS 2 OVER 2
SF 6 UNDER
METS -115, NEED ONE MORE SF BACKER


AZ OVER 2
MIL 12 UNDER
ARIZONA +130



BOS 1 OVER
BAL 6 UNDER
BOSTON +105



NYY 7 OVER 1
MIN 6 UNDER

TEX 5 OVER
CLEV 1 UNDER 2
CLEVELAND -124, NEED ONE MORE TEXAS BACKER



DET 2 OVER
OAK 7 UNDER 1
DETROIT +150



LAA 8 OVER
SEA 2 UNDER 1
SEATTLE +120


NHL

PIT OVER 3
DET 3 UNDER


Personally, I like them all except for Seattle and Milwaukee (I think they have nailed this one, but what do I know).
 

Fah-New-Gee
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Come on Touts. Take Texas. I'll back Cleveland tonight with Laffey throwing.


And to AZ = thanks for getting this data to us. I appreciate it.
 

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Clev is a great play regardless. Someone I know pointed out how great it was getting Texas at that price, that alone made me take CLEV.

Hello AZ
 

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I like Cleveland with Laffey too, but betting against Texas at home has its risk...like the Pirates, they could erupt for 10 plus at any time, while Cleveland has struggled offensively - I'd imagine that's what your friend meant by value...anyways, good luck!
 

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what up doc.

Here is the last one for me. A few clear cut fades:

MLB

CIN 1 OVER 3
PHI 13 UNDER 1

FLA 2 OVER 2
ATL 13 UNDER 1

PIT 3 OVER 1
STL 5 UNDER 1

CUBS 3 OVER 1
SD 3 UNDER 2

COL 4 OVER 1
LAD 4 UNDER 1

METS 5 OVER 2
SF 6 UNDER

AZ OVER 2
MIL 14 UNDER 1

BOS 3 OVER 1
BAL 7 UNDER

NYY 9 OVER 1
MIN 6 UNDER 1

TEX 7 OVER
CLEV 2 UNDER 2

DET 3 OVER
OAK 7 UNDER 2

LAA 10 OVER
SEA 2 UNDER 1

NHL

PIT 2 OVER 3
DET 4 UNDER 1
 

Rx. Junior
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Well took Philly yikes, Florida the line jumped huge (I think been drinking) St. Louis and Cubs on the RL hope we all cash.
 

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Dont want to hijack this thread, but while I like Laffey too, how the heck is LAA gonna generate any offense? That Tex team is hitting the snot out of the ball.
 

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Went with +1.5 for insurance. Saw 100% rl on SB trends. TY again WIZ.
 

visionary
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AZ: Do you play all of the consensus games you post? or only a certain few?
 

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