For those who don't know, I tend to consider myself a Blue Jays specialist. Not a homer, a specialist. When you watch a team play 150 of their 162 games for 15 years, you tend to pickup on a few things that others don't see as clearly. I am here to point out these advantages, and tonight I see one.
First of all, whenever you can get Roy Halladay at plus money, you need to jump on it. If this man was pitching in any other city than Toronto, he would be huge news. Consistent, dominant, amazing stuff... he's an absolute pleasure to watch. And when he pitches, the team recognizes his ability and steps up their game. Halladay owns a 10-5 career record against the Yankees, posting a 3.03 ERA in those games. In his last 5 against the Yankees, that ERA is 2.73... he's only getting better against them.
This year, Halladays numbers look like this: 6-5 W/L, 89 IP, 77 H, 31 R, 29 ER, 11 BB, 71 K, 5 HR, 2.93 ERA, 108 PC/GS. That's a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walks ratio and AVERAGING 108 pitches a game. For those who don't know, he is a ground ball pitcher and is damn good at it. On April 17th against the Texas Rangers, Halladay pitched a complete game without ANY of his outfielders recording a putout!
Halladay is a work horse and a beast. This year he went on a string of 4 consecutive games pitching a COMPLETE game, and he only managed to win ONE of them!! This was due to the Jays poor batting and offense at the time, but that aspect of their game has come around.
All of these reasons make me wonder how the hell you can put this man as a dog, even though its a road game. But, I know why Toronto are underdogs...
Joba Chamerlain debuts as a starter tonight. The most overrated, over-anticipated piece of news I have heard in a long time. I've seen him pitch, and he has fantastic stuff. However, he has NEVER pitched more than 2 innings in one game. The Yankees bullpen is bad enough with Joba in it, and now you're removing him. How deep do you think this guy will go?? They say he's on a pitch count of 70 pitches... so say he pitches very well, and gets through the 5th inning. That leaves 4 innings where the Yankees will be holding their breath hoping they can muster out some innings from their horrid bullpen.
A closer look at Joba's numbers this year and compare them to Halladay's:
JOBACHAM – 1-2 W/L, 23.2 IP, 16 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 11 BB, 30 K, 1 HR, 2.28 ERA
ROYHALLA – 6-5 W/L, 89 IP, 77 H, 31 R, 29 ER, 11 BB, 71 K, 5 HR, 2.93 ERA
What do I make of this?? Halladay has pitched just under 4x the amount of innings that Joba has. Halladay has maintained the same ballpark ERA as Joba over 4x that span. But what I make most of this is the WALKS. They each have 11 walks. The Jays KNOW Joba is on a pitch count... they KNOW he has to conserve his energy and stretch it out. This is a professional team, and they are full of professional hitters... hitters that can work the count, get into a hitters count, and put the pressure on the pitcher. Players like Eckstein, Rolen, Stairs, Overbay each have phenomenal eye's at the plate. They draw several walks as it is, and they WILL be going deep into counts... they WILL be working that pitch count up.
I'm not saying the Jays will spank Joba all over Yankee Stadium. I'm not expecting many runs in this game. What I am expecting is another quality start from Halladay, another dominant performance scattering very few hits over 7+ innings. What I'm expecting is Chamberlain to be GONE by the 5th inning or sooner, leaving a soft bullpen open for the Jays to expose. For these reasons, I cannot leave this price on the table.
Other notable facts:
-Toronto is 8-3 in their last 11.
-Toronto are 7-2 in Halladays last 9 starts against the Yankees.
-Toronto had an off day yesterday, giving them plenty of time to prepare for this game.
Leans for this game:
Blue Jays ML +102
1st 5 innings UNDER 4 -117
UNDER 7.5 -106
Blue Jays ALT-RL -1.5 +178
Official play:
Blue Jays ML +102 - 3 units
I rarely play more than 1 unit on any game, no matter how much I like it. The MLB season is a marathon... you cannot get through it by hammering 10-20% of your bankroll on any given game. This should show you how much I love the Jays in this spot. 3 units isn't 10% or 20% of my bankroll, however its 3x as much as I will ever lay on any single game.
Good luck tonight.
First of all, whenever you can get Roy Halladay at plus money, you need to jump on it. If this man was pitching in any other city than Toronto, he would be huge news. Consistent, dominant, amazing stuff... he's an absolute pleasure to watch. And when he pitches, the team recognizes his ability and steps up their game. Halladay owns a 10-5 career record against the Yankees, posting a 3.03 ERA in those games. In his last 5 against the Yankees, that ERA is 2.73... he's only getting better against them.
This year, Halladays numbers look like this: 6-5 W/L, 89 IP, 77 H, 31 R, 29 ER, 11 BB, 71 K, 5 HR, 2.93 ERA, 108 PC/GS. That's a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walks ratio and AVERAGING 108 pitches a game. For those who don't know, he is a ground ball pitcher and is damn good at it. On April 17th against the Texas Rangers, Halladay pitched a complete game without ANY of his outfielders recording a putout!
Halladay is a work horse and a beast. This year he went on a string of 4 consecutive games pitching a COMPLETE game, and he only managed to win ONE of them!! This was due to the Jays poor batting and offense at the time, but that aspect of their game has come around.
All of these reasons make me wonder how the hell you can put this man as a dog, even though its a road game. But, I know why Toronto are underdogs...
Joba Chamerlain debuts as a starter tonight. The most overrated, over-anticipated piece of news I have heard in a long time. I've seen him pitch, and he has fantastic stuff. However, he has NEVER pitched more than 2 innings in one game. The Yankees bullpen is bad enough with Joba in it, and now you're removing him. How deep do you think this guy will go?? They say he's on a pitch count of 70 pitches... so say he pitches very well, and gets through the 5th inning. That leaves 4 innings where the Yankees will be holding their breath hoping they can muster out some innings from their horrid bullpen.
A closer look at Joba's numbers this year and compare them to Halladay's:
JOBACHAM – 1-2 W/L, 23.2 IP, 16 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 11 BB, 30 K, 1 HR, 2.28 ERA
ROYHALLA – 6-5 W/L, 89 IP, 77 H, 31 R, 29 ER, 11 BB, 71 K, 5 HR, 2.93 ERA
What do I make of this?? Halladay has pitched just under 4x the amount of innings that Joba has. Halladay has maintained the same ballpark ERA as Joba over 4x that span. But what I make most of this is the WALKS. They each have 11 walks. The Jays KNOW Joba is on a pitch count... they KNOW he has to conserve his energy and stretch it out. This is a professional team, and they are full of professional hitters... hitters that can work the count, get into a hitters count, and put the pressure on the pitcher. Players like Eckstein, Rolen, Stairs, Overbay each have phenomenal eye's at the plate. They draw several walks as it is, and they WILL be going deep into counts... they WILL be working that pitch count up.
I'm not saying the Jays will spank Joba all over Yankee Stadium. I'm not expecting many runs in this game. What I am expecting is another quality start from Halladay, another dominant performance scattering very few hits over 7+ innings. What I'm expecting is Chamberlain to be GONE by the 5th inning or sooner, leaving a soft bullpen open for the Jays to expose. For these reasons, I cannot leave this price on the table.
Other notable facts:
-Toronto is 8-3 in their last 11.
-Toronto are 7-2 in Halladays last 9 starts against the Yankees.
-Toronto had an off day yesterday, giving them plenty of time to prepare for this game.
Leans for this game:
Blue Jays ML +102
1st 5 innings UNDER 4 -117
UNDER 7.5 -106
Blue Jays ALT-RL -1.5 +178
Official play:
Blue Jays ML +102 - 3 units
I rarely play more than 1 unit on any game, no matter how much I like it. The MLB season is a marathon... you cannot get through it by hammering 10-20% of your bankroll on any given game. This should show you how much I love the Jays in this spot. 3 units isn't 10% or 20% of my bankroll, however its 3x as much as I will ever lay on any single game.
Good luck tonight.
