Any math experts here?

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 3, 2008

I am working on a little project of mine, that I have been doing off and on for fun in the past.

What I need to know, is what is the mathematical probability of being a winning sports bettor, making five flat bet picks per day, month after month. Like, what would be the probability of having two winning months in a row, three, etc.

I also would like to know what the probability would be on a bi-weekly basis, up to about 8-10 weeks.

Thank you in advance for any assistance you can provide, and if you need any further information, feel free to ask.

lapdance · Jun 3, 2008

not good

whalewager · Jun 3, 2008

Hi Intrinzik

I consider myself good with figuring and I would think your chances are pretty close to zero over the long haul.

Good Luck Buddy

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 3, 2008

Cardsfan said:
Hi Intrinzik

I consider myself good with figuring and I would think your chances are preety close to zero over the long haul.

Good Luck Buddy

That is the answer I was looking for. :103631605

Trust me, I am not trying to do the above. Perhaps the opposite, though.

Can anyone provide any exact numbers?

Doug · Jun 3, 2008

what percentage ( against -110 lines) would you win ?

X-Files · Jun 3, 2008

Intrinzik said:
What I need to know, is what is the mathematical probability of being a winning sports bettor, making five flat bet picks per day, month after month. Like, what would be the probability of having two winning months in a row, three, etc.

Depends on who and how good the bettor is.

A sharp would have a very high chance of winning two months straight.

Of course a winning month is technicly + $0.01.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 3, 2008

Doug said:
what percentage ( against -110 lines) would you win ?

Let's just use general numbers, such as, say...

58%
56%
54%
52%
50%

In the long run, don't see the results being any higher or lower than that. Well, maybe lower but not by much.

Really, I am just trying to get some basic numbers to get started.

Thanks.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 3, 2008

X-Files said:
Depends on who and how good the bettor is.

A sharp would have a very high chance of winning two months straight.

Of course a winning month is technicly + $0.01.

Definitely not a sharp by any means! :lol:

Just using basic knowledge and handicapping skills.

X-Files · Jun 3, 2008

Intrinzik said:
Definitely not a sharp by any means! :lol:

Just using basic knowledge and handicapping skills.

In that case you might want to follow some sharp Rx posters plays.

There are many to choose from.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 3, 2008

X-Files said:
In that case you might want to follow some sharp Rx posters plays.

There are many to choose from.

That's the thing. I'm not trying to win playing my picks. It is a little bit complicated, the concept I am working on.

I am just looking for numbers at this point though.

Thanks for the help! :toast:

Bluemyboy · Jun 3, 2008

hat is the mathematical probability of being a winning sports bettor? well it really depends on the player as some have said above. If you want to know what percentage you must hit to win I have those numbers.

+150 = 40.0%
+110 = 47.6
+100 = 50.0
-102 = 50.5
-104 = 51.0
-105 = 51.2
-108 = 51.9
-110 = 52.4 -------what you must hit at most shops
-115 = 53.5
-120 = 54.5
-150 = 60.0
-200 = 66.6
-300 = 75.0

In terms of what is the probability you will win, I would venture a guess that less then 5% of people are successfull, thus in that sense I would say you have somewhere around a 5% probability. However alot of people lose not due to their picks. thus if you are going to be flat betting basically look at it this way.

In order to figure out you probability of winning we need to know what you expect to hit. a person who usually hits 20% of their bets still has a shot to win 2 months in a row, just their odds would be a lot lower of that then someone who hits 70% of their bets.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 4, 2008

Bluemyboy said:
hat is the mathematical probability of being a winning sports bettor? well it really depends on the player as some have said above. If you want to know what percentage you must hit to win I have those numbers.

+150 = 40.0%
+110 = 47.6
+100 = 50.0
-102 = 50.5
-104 = 51.0
-105 = 51.2
-108 = 51.9
-110 = 52.4 -------what you must hit at most shops
-115 = 53.5
-120 = 54.5
-150 = 60.0
-200 = 66.6
-300 = 75.0

In terms of what is the probability you will win, I would venture a guess that less then 5% of people are successfull, thus in that sense I would say you have somewhere around a 5% probability. However alot of people lose not due to their picks. thus if you are going to be flat betting basically look at it this way.

In order to figure out you probability of winning we need to know what you expect to hit. a person who usually hits 20% of their bets still has a shot to win 2 months in a row, just their odds would be a lot lower of that then someone who hits 70% of their bets.

That helps a lot. In terms of what I expect to hit, I would say just use the 52.4% to calculate the probability of being a winner two months in a row.

Thanks. :toast:

Bluemyboy · Jun 4, 2008

using 300 games played over a 2 month period, I got basically .4865 probability.....you need to hit 158 games out of 300 games to win during this time.

Any math experts here?

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