Updated: June 4, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
1. Beckett looks to chill Pena and other hot Rays
Right-hander Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Red Sox when they take on the Tampa Bays Rays on ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball. A few things to look for: B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena have been the hottest Rays hitters over the past 10 days, and Beckett has neutralized all three in their previous meetings since 2007. He's set up Upton (1-for-6) with fastballs in and out of the zone to get him to chase a bad pitch with two strikes. Crawford (1-for-11) has swung freely in their previous meetings, so Beckett has spread his hard stuff around the zone and kept his off-speed pitches down for swings-and-misses. Against Pena (2-for-12), Beckett pounds the zone with fastballs and curves to get a strikeout or poorly hit ball. Beckett struck out Pena in six of his 12 at-bats since 2007 (four times looking). Pena, last year's AL Comeback Player of the Year, has hit 10 home runs this year, but his 71 strikeouts leads the league. Pena's tendency to chase bad pitches is most obvious on two-strike counts. When down to his last strike, Pena has reverted to pre-2006 form and chased fastballs out of the zone more than twice as often as last season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Pena vs. fastballs on two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Seasons</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2005-2006</td> <td>23.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>32.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2005-2006</td> <td>23.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>32.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>12.2</td> <td>52.8</td> <td>25.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>25.3</td> <td>61.2</td> <td>36.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> When he has managed to get his bat on a heater out of the zone, Pena has gone 0-for-15 without any well-hit balls. Edwin Jackson, tonight's Rays starter, has done well against Manny Ramirez. Since 2007, Ramirez is 0-for-6 against the righty. But Jackson has gotten knocked around by another hot-hitting Red Sox, Mike Lowell, who is 5-for-11 against Jackson since last season. 2. Silva hoping to rebound from May struggles
When Carlos Silva went 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in April, the Mariners' $48 million investment was looking pretty good. In May, however, Silva went 0-5 with an 11.00 ERA. Coming off the shortest outing of his career (a 2/3-inning disaster against the Tigers on Friday), Silva makes his first start of June today against the Angels. A look at what went right in April and wrong in May: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="7">Silva's two-month comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Month</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>SLG against</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>April</td> <td>.263</td> <td>.256</td> <td>.410</td> <td>11.5</td> <td>12.7</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May</td> <td>.194</td> <td>.395</td> <td>.659</td> <td>6.2</td> <td>8.6</td> <td>12.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The decrease in opponents' well-hit average seems puzzling considering Silva's other stats got worse. Was Silva just unlucky in May? Considering only two other AL starting pitchers with well-hit averages under .200 this season have an ERA above 3.85, Silva's May does seem to be tinged with some bad luck. Still, two splits are particularly alarming. One is Silva's performance against left-handed hitters: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="7">Silva's vs. left-handed hitters</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Month</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>SLG against</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>April</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.284</td> <td>.443</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>16.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May</td> <td>.258</td> <td>.419</td> <td>.806</td> <td>4.8</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>13.9</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Silva got pounded by left-handers last month. Seven of the eight home runs he has allowed this year were hit by lefties. The other area in which he's come up short this season is finishing off hitters. With two strikes, opponents have hit .304 with a .530 slugging percentage. Silva ranks last among major league starters in batting average, slugging and OPS against on two-strike counts. To turn his misfortune around in June, he's going to have to find a way to get left-handers out and finish off hitters in favorable counts. He might catch a break from an Angels lineup that ranks 29th in left-handed slugging against right-handed pitching, and is hitting .185 in two-strike counts. 3. Litsch winning often, walking few
The Blue Jays own the best ERA in the majors (3.32 through Monday), and an unheralded 23-year-old leads the team in wins. Jesse Litsch is 7-1, and already has as many wins as he did a year ago in his rookie season, when he went 7-9 in 20 starts. His ERA has improved from 3.81 to 3.18. The key to Litsch's success has been his ability to avoid walks. In 65 innings, he has a 37-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he ranks among the league leaders with just 1.25 walks per nine innings. He has not walked any batters in five of his 10 starts, including a stretch last month when he went 38 innings without issuing one. So far, Litsch has located only 46 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, down from 50 percent last year and below league average (51 percent). However, an above-average 65 percent of his pitches have been for strikes, an improvement from 2007. He's kept walks to a minimum by going to three-ball counts in just 13 percent of plate appearances, much better than average. And when he does face a three-ball count, Litsch throws strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Litsch count comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Not three balls</td> <td>Three balls</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.279</td> <td>.125</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches in strike zone</td> <td>46.0</td> <td>50.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>44.9</td> <td>64.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase pct.</td> <td>30.5</td> <td>53.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike pct.</td> <td>64.1</td> <td>84.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Amazingly, in the 33 plate appearances that have gone to three balls, Litsch has nearly as many strikeouts (8) as walks (9). He's allowed just three singles, a big improvement over last season when hitters slugged .467 in three-ball at-bats. Tonight in New York, Litsch will try to continue his stellar pitching against a Yankees offense that is hitting a league-best .338 in three-ball counts.
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
1. Beckett looks to chill Pena and other hot Rays
Right-hander Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Red Sox when they take on the Tampa Bays Rays on ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball. A few things to look for: B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena have been the hottest Rays hitters over the past 10 days, and Beckett has neutralized all three in their previous meetings since 2007. He's set up Upton (1-for-6) with fastballs in and out of the zone to get him to chase a bad pitch with two strikes. Crawford (1-for-11) has swung freely in their previous meetings, so Beckett has spread his hard stuff around the zone and kept his off-speed pitches down for swings-and-misses. Against Pena (2-for-12), Beckett pounds the zone with fastballs and curves to get a strikeout or poorly hit ball. Beckett struck out Pena in six of his 12 at-bats since 2007 (four times looking). Pena, last year's AL Comeback Player of the Year, has hit 10 home runs this year, but his 71 strikeouts leads the league. Pena's tendency to chase bad pitches is most obvious on two-strike counts. When down to his last strike, Pena has reverted to pre-2006 form and chased fastballs out of the zone more than twice as often as last season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Pena vs. fastballs on two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Seasons</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2005-2006</td> <td>23.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>32.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2005-2006</td> <td>23.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>32.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>12.2</td> <td>52.8</td> <td>25.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>25.3</td> <td>61.2</td> <td>36.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> When he has managed to get his bat on a heater out of the zone, Pena has gone 0-for-15 without any well-hit balls. Edwin Jackson, tonight's Rays starter, has done well against Manny Ramirez. Since 2007, Ramirez is 0-for-6 against the righty. But Jackson has gotten knocked around by another hot-hitting Red Sox, Mike Lowell, who is 5-for-11 against Jackson since last season. 2. Silva hoping to rebound from May struggles
When Carlos Silva went 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in April, the Mariners' $48 million investment was looking pretty good. In May, however, Silva went 0-5 with an 11.00 ERA. Coming off the shortest outing of his career (a 2/3-inning disaster against the Tigers on Friday), Silva makes his first start of June today against the Angels. A look at what went right in April and wrong in May: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="7">Silva's two-month comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Month</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>SLG against</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>April</td> <td>.263</td> <td>.256</td> <td>.410</td> <td>11.5</td> <td>12.7</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May</td> <td>.194</td> <td>.395</td> <td>.659</td> <td>6.2</td> <td>8.6</td> <td>12.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The decrease in opponents' well-hit average seems puzzling considering Silva's other stats got worse. Was Silva just unlucky in May? Considering only two other AL starting pitchers with well-hit averages under .200 this season have an ERA above 3.85, Silva's May does seem to be tinged with some bad luck. Still, two splits are particularly alarming. One is Silva's performance against left-handed hitters: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="7">Silva's vs. left-handed hitters</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Month</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>SLG against</td> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>April</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.284</td> <td>.443</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>16.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May</td> <td>.258</td> <td>.419</td> <td>.806</td> <td>4.8</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>13.9</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Silva got pounded by left-handers last month. Seven of the eight home runs he has allowed this year were hit by lefties. The other area in which he's come up short this season is finishing off hitters. With two strikes, opponents have hit .304 with a .530 slugging percentage. Silva ranks last among major league starters in batting average, slugging and OPS against on two-strike counts. To turn his misfortune around in June, he's going to have to find a way to get left-handers out and finish off hitters in favorable counts. He might catch a break from an Angels lineup that ranks 29th in left-handed slugging against right-handed pitching, and is hitting .185 in two-strike counts. 3. Litsch winning often, walking few
The Blue Jays own the best ERA in the majors (3.32 through Monday), and an unheralded 23-year-old leads the team in wins. Jesse Litsch is 7-1, and already has as many wins as he did a year ago in his rookie season, when he went 7-9 in 20 starts. His ERA has improved from 3.81 to 3.18. The key to Litsch's success has been his ability to avoid walks. In 65 innings, he has a 37-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he ranks among the league leaders with just 1.25 walks per nine innings. He has not walked any batters in five of his 10 starts, including a stretch last month when he went 38 innings without issuing one. So far, Litsch has located only 46 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, down from 50 percent last year and below league average (51 percent). However, an above-average 65 percent of his pitches have been for strikes, an improvement from 2007. He's kept walks to a minimum by going to three-ball counts in just 13 percent of plate appearances, much better than average. And when he does face a three-ball count, Litsch throws strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Litsch count comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Not three balls</td> <td>Three balls</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.279</td> <td>.125</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches in strike zone</td> <td>46.0</td> <td>50.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>44.9</td> <td>64.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase pct.</td> <td>30.5</td> <td>53.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike pct.</td> <td>64.1</td> <td>84.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Amazingly, in the 33 plate appearances that have gone to three balls, Litsch has nearly as many strikeouts (8) as walks (9). He's allowed just three singles, a big improvement over last season when hitters slugged .467 in three-ball at-bats. Tonight in New York, Litsch will try to continue his stellar pitching against a Yankees offense that is hitting a league-best .338 in three-ball counts.
