Service Plays Thursday 6/5/08

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jun 4, 2008

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jbragg10 · Jun 5, 2008

Let me do the favor today and let you know to save your money.

I am sure the youwinnow crew is on Yankees with Wang (-170).
They always pick the Yanks when Wang is pitching.

cut-paste-hero · Jun 5, 2008

jbragg10 said:
Let me do the favor today and let you know to save your money.

I am sure the youwinnow crew is on Yankees with Wang (-170).
They always pick the Yanks when Wang is pitching.

Not phillys -150 with cole hamels? (phils are -220) d1g1t

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

Arthur Ralph Bonus Play

Dodgers

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

Professional Gamblers Newsletter

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We have these plays today:
Major League Baseball:
REDSOX -116 over Rays (Lester-Shields)
WHITESOX -160 over Royals (Contreras-Meche)

Comments:
When you have an even number of sports bets you can expect to go 1-1, (or 2-2, 3-3, etc.) If you have 2 plays with a 60% chance of winning each individual bet, you figure to go 2-0 only 36% of the time, (0.60 x 0.60 = 0.36). With a 70% expectation per bet, you're still looking at only 0.70 x 0.70 = 49%.
Lem Banker once told me he tries to get an odd number of bets (3, 5, 7, etc.) because he thinks he can usually win that extra play.
The trouble is, it's not a good idea to "push" a doubtful pick simply to make an odd number of bets, nor is it a good idea to pass a playable bet to avoid having an even number of bets. It's easy to "prove" my point: Just look what happens in any 2-day stretch. Two days of 3 bets each, and whaddaya got?...........Six plays.
The moral of the story is, if you find an advantage bet it, and if you're not happy with enough advantage don't bet it. Each bet should stand on its own.
In today's plays, be ready to go 1-1. That's the most likely outcome. Just know that we're more likely to go 2-0 than we are to go 0-2.

Good luck. - J. R. Miller

B.S.S. · Jun 5, 2008

Wiseowl Is Smokin'

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

These are Thursday's plays:

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

5 STAR PARLAY: (902) PHILADELPHIA (-$225) and NY YANKEES (-$156)
(Listing Hamels and Wang only)
(Risking $500 to win $685)
12:05PM Central Time

5 STAR: (903) HOUSTON (+$110) over Pittsburgh
(Listing Backe and Maholm)
(Risking $500 to win $550)
6:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (921) KANSAS CITY (+$150) over Chicago
(Listing Meche only)
(Risking $100 to win $150)
7:10PM Central Time

1 STAR: (909) NY METS (-$115) over San Diego
(Action)
(Risking $115 to win $100)
9:05PM Central Time

*** EZWINNERS NBA ***

1 STAR: (502) BOSTON (-2.5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $110 to win $100)
8:05PM Central Time

CaliDreaming · Jun 5, 2008

chris jordan
300 Texas
300 Celtics

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

Ben Burns' #1 NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR! (9-0 L9 GOY/TOYs!)
I'm playing on the Lakers and Celtics OVER the number

jbragg10 · Jun 5, 2008

Cappers Access
Celtics
Twins

Packwins · Jun 5, 2008

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Red Wings Wednesday night. Thursday it's the Lakers (Game 1 and Series).. The surplus is 15 sirignanos.

jbragg10 · Jun 5, 2008

HONDO

June 5, 2008 -- Hondo rolled with the Reds last night but missed with the Blue Jays and Orioles, which caused bank roll- shrinkage to 430 carrasquels.

Tonight, strike up the band - the one and only Jimmy Shields is performing in Fenway Pahhhk. Ten units on the Rays. Also 10 on the Celtics to collect No. 17.

jbragg10 · Jun 5, 2008

Bob Akmens comp
Texas Rangers (117)
Thu Jun 5 '08 8:05p
C.C. Sabathia goes for the Indians…and how many times in all the years I’ve handicapped have I seen this? Cy Young-Winner one year…Cy Young-Bum the next.

Of course, when they gave this guy the Cy Young, I had to scratch my head. But what do I know? I’ve only been one of this great country’s best baseball handicappers for 30+ years. And the defending national baseball handicapping champ.

Keep in mind that Sabathia had an official record of 20-9. Add in his 8 no-decisions to get a better picture of his seasonal performance, and you get a team record of 24-13 in all his starts. Was that worth the Cy Young? How about his profitability if you had bet on him in every one of those starts? You would have netted +5.6 wins. Not bad, you think?

Were there any pitchers with better numbers than that? Just a few. Like 32 other guys. 18 in the NL, and 14 in his own league. I had fun looking this up. Even his teammate Carmona had better numbers: a team record of 24-11 in all of his starts and a +10.7 net wins figure if you bet them all. How did Josh Beckett with a 25-9 team record not win this award?

Why do I go through all of this stuff a year later? Because it’s all relevant to this game. Don’t look at games in a vacuum when you handicap them – look at them through the big-picture window. Try to fit the puzzle pieces together instead of having gaps in your knowledge.

Obviously the public remembers a Cy Young award. And that’s why this guy – who is having a bum of a season so far with his 3-7 record – which extrapolates to a Cy No- Young award-type 8-20 W-L full-season record – is the -1.27 favorite here vs Kevin Millwood at Arlington.

You want the biggest dichotomy in all of baseball between home performance and road performance by a single pitcher?

You got it…again!

Unbelievably enough, the Rangers are 9-1 in Millwood’s last 10 at home…and 0-13 in his last 13 away from Arlington. How do you explain something like that? I’ve seen that almost absolute polar-extreme before – but it’s very rare. Can you imagine the guy who keeps on betting Millwood on the road, saying “he’s due?” Due for what? Another loss?

So, while any team in baseball has a chance to win any given game, you really don’t want to go with the Indians here, folks.

Go with the RANGERS at home at +1.17 in this 8:05 PM ET matchup.

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

Big AL GOY

At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Boston Celtics

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

ARMVIN SPORTS

MLB
6/5/2008 HOUSTON ASTROS 110

MLB
6/5/2008 FLORIDA MARLINS (R.Nolasco) at ATLANTA BRAVES (J.Jurrjens) Over 9.5

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

MADDUX SPORTS
Bonus Play
LA & Boston Over 191.5

gokcrgo · Jun 5, 2008

Who all are you guys wanting today?? USA Sports NBA plays, Wise Owl, Ywn crew?

gokcrgo · Jun 5, 2008

Hopefully my posts start showing up when I post them so everyone doesn't waste there money. I am trying to find out what everyone wants and who is getting what. I can get a couple of these plays

BillyBaxter · Jun 5, 2008

PAUL LEINER

10* Lakers +2.5

10* Over 8.5 NYY/Tor

10* Twins -115

thatoneguy · Jun 5, 2008

^^^ those are from yesterday boss (vegas sports pics)...

and what a solid write up from akmens! nice to see something other than the scoresandodds trends spit back at you, kudos!