THREE THINGS TO WATCH: THURSDAY
1. Bailey gets another chance
Former first-round draft pick Homer Bailey makes his 2008 debut this afternoon against Philadelphia, the club that hit him the hardest a year ago during his rookie season. This time last year, Bailey was the Reds' top pitching prospect and one of the best prospects in all baseball. He turned out to be very hittable during his first stint in the majors, and now he's not even the best pitching prospect on his own team, given the eye-opening performances of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto.
The key today will be whether Bailey can throw strikes, especially early in the count. He threw just 59 percent of his pitches for strikes last season and struggled to get ahead of hitters:
Bailey early in counts (2007)
Key stat Bailey MLB average
First pitch strike pct. 54 58
One of first two pitches for strike pct. 80 85
Two of first three pitches for strikes pct. 49 60
Pct. of 0-1 counts that become 0-2 counts 38 47
Pct. of 1-2 counts that become 1-2 counts 44 53
Falling behind in the count almost half the time, Bailey tried to battle back with fastballs. He threw his heater in 78 percent of hitter's counts, allowing a .355 batting average against.
Philadelphia lit him up for six earned runs in his 1 2/3-inning start last June when Bailey just couldn't find the strike zone. He threw only 16 of 39 fastballs for strikes, and Phillies hitters made him pay when he did find the zone. In six at-bats ending with fastball strikes, the Phillies got four hits, including a two-run homer from Ryan Howard.
2. Cubs taking care of Dempster
Ryan Dempster is done with being a closer and is thriving as a Cubs starter this season. The righty is 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA, allowing no more than two earned runs in seven of 12 starts. Carlos Zambrano and Dempster have formed a dominating combination at the front of the first-place Chicago rotation.
In 2003, his last as a full-time starter, Dempster went 3-7 with a 6.54 ERA for the Reds. Then he pitched mostly out of the bullpen during his first four years in Chicago, usually as a closer. Dempster averaged fewer than 16 pitches in his 66 relief appearances last season, so Cubs skipper Lou Piniella has kept an eye on his pitch counts. After Dempster's five-inning, 93-pitch win over the Rockies on Saturday, Piniella told the Chicago Sun-Times "We [had] to shorten up Dempster because he's had a lot of pitches in his last starts, and we might do it again in his next start." In his previous four starts, Dempster averaged 115 pitches, and he didn't throw fewer than 109 in any outing.
Dempster shows signs of fatigue after he crosses the 90-pitch threshold. A starter's batting average against typically increases about 13 points after 90 pitches, but Dempster's goes up 64 points:
2008 batting average against
Pitch count Dempster MLB average
1-90 .179 (42-for-235) .259
91-plus .243 (9-for-37) .272
Against the Dodgers tonight, look for activity in the Cubs' bullpen as Dempster's pitch count approaches 90. Also, watch how he locates his low-90's fastball. Opponents are batting just .184 against his heater this year, down from last season's .313, and he's been especially effective when keeping the fastball down in the zone. The Dodgers have hit right-handed fastballs that come in high, but are vulnerable against hard stuff at the knees:
Batting average against fastballs
Pitch location 2008 vs. Dempster Dodgers vs. RHP
Up .225 .266
Middle .204 .326
Down .111 .250
Dempster has allowed no hits with five strikeouts in 24 total at-bats that ended on a fastball located down-and-away (0-for-15) or down-and-in (0-for-9).
3. Can Tampa's arms keep up the pace?
One season removed from being the worst team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays sit atop the AL East.
The biggest improvement has been the turnaround of their talented, though erratic, pitching staff. Although the Rays were second in the majors in strikeouts in 2007, their 5.53 ERA was by far the worst in the league. This season, Tampa Bay is in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, but team ERA has dropped by almost two runs per game to 3.68, ranking sixth in the majors.
Left-handers have led the way. In his six starts, opponents are hitting just .172 against Scott Kazmir, best among qualified starters. Reliever J.P. Howell's batting average against is also a strong .203, good for 15th in the league. The performance of the Rays' southpaws contrasts sharply with that of their righties:
MLB rankings of Rays pitchers through Tuesday
Stat Left-handers Right-handers
BAVG against 1 12
SLG against 1 17
Miss pct. of swings 4 24
K pct. 1 20
Although right-handers' batting average against (.254) and slugging against (.404) are close to league averages, they rank 26th in percentage of strikes that are well-hit. That's an ominous stat and could foreshadow a decline in righty averages -- and higher overall staff ERA -- for the rest of the season. Right-hander James Shields gets the nod tonight against the Red Sox
1. Bailey gets another chance
Former first-round draft pick Homer Bailey makes his 2008 debut this afternoon against Philadelphia, the club that hit him the hardest a year ago during his rookie season. This time last year, Bailey was the Reds' top pitching prospect and one of the best prospects in all baseball. He turned out to be very hittable during his first stint in the majors, and now he's not even the best pitching prospect on his own team, given the eye-opening performances of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto.
The key today will be whether Bailey can throw strikes, especially early in the count. He threw just 59 percent of his pitches for strikes last season and struggled to get ahead of hitters:
Bailey early in counts (2007)
Key stat Bailey MLB average
First pitch strike pct. 54 58
One of first two pitches for strike pct. 80 85
Two of first three pitches for strikes pct. 49 60
Pct. of 0-1 counts that become 0-2 counts 38 47
Pct. of 1-2 counts that become 1-2 counts 44 53
Falling behind in the count almost half the time, Bailey tried to battle back with fastballs. He threw his heater in 78 percent of hitter's counts, allowing a .355 batting average against.
Philadelphia lit him up for six earned runs in his 1 2/3-inning start last June when Bailey just couldn't find the strike zone. He threw only 16 of 39 fastballs for strikes, and Phillies hitters made him pay when he did find the zone. In six at-bats ending with fastball strikes, the Phillies got four hits, including a two-run homer from Ryan Howard.
2. Cubs taking care of Dempster
Ryan Dempster is done with being a closer and is thriving as a Cubs starter this season. The righty is 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA, allowing no more than two earned runs in seven of 12 starts. Carlos Zambrano and Dempster have formed a dominating combination at the front of the first-place Chicago rotation.
In 2003, his last as a full-time starter, Dempster went 3-7 with a 6.54 ERA for the Reds. Then he pitched mostly out of the bullpen during his first four years in Chicago, usually as a closer. Dempster averaged fewer than 16 pitches in his 66 relief appearances last season, so Cubs skipper Lou Piniella has kept an eye on his pitch counts. After Dempster's five-inning, 93-pitch win over the Rockies on Saturday, Piniella told the Chicago Sun-Times "We [had] to shorten up Dempster because he's had a lot of pitches in his last starts, and we might do it again in his next start." In his previous four starts, Dempster averaged 115 pitches, and he didn't throw fewer than 109 in any outing.
Dempster shows signs of fatigue after he crosses the 90-pitch threshold. A starter's batting average against typically increases about 13 points after 90 pitches, but Dempster's goes up 64 points:
2008 batting average against
Pitch count Dempster MLB average
1-90 .179 (42-for-235) .259
91-plus .243 (9-for-37) .272
Against the Dodgers tonight, look for activity in the Cubs' bullpen as Dempster's pitch count approaches 90. Also, watch how he locates his low-90's fastball. Opponents are batting just .184 against his heater this year, down from last season's .313, and he's been especially effective when keeping the fastball down in the zone. The Dodgers have hit right-handed fastballs that come in high, but are vulnerable against hard stuff at the knees:
Batting average against fastballs
Pitch location 2008 vs. Dempster Dodgers vs. RHP
Up .225 .266
Middle .204 .326
Down .111 .250
Dempster has allowed no hits with five strikeouts in 24 total at-bats that ended on a fastball located down-and-away (0-for-15) or down-and-in (0-for-9).
3. Can Tampa's arms keep up the pace?
One season removed from being the worst team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays sit atop the AL East.
The biggest improvement has been the turnaround of their talented, though erratic, pitching staff. Although the Rays were second in the majors in strikeouts in 2007, their 5.53 ERA was by far the worst in the league. This season, Tampa Bay is in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, but team ERA has dropped by almost two runs per game to 3.68, ranking sixth in the majors.
Left-handers have led the way. In his six starts, opponents are hitting just .172 against Scott Kazmir, best among qualified starters. Reliever J.P. Howell's batting average against is also a strong .203, good for 15th in the league. The performance of the Rays' southpaws contrasts sharply with that of their righties:
MLB rankings of Rays pitchers through Tuesday
Stat Left-handers Right-handers
BAVG against 1 12
SLG against 1 17
Miss pct. of swings 4 24
K pct. 1 20
Although right-handers' batting average against (.254) and slugging against (.404) are close to league averages, they rank 26th in percentage of strikes that are well-hit. That's an ominous stat and could foreshadow a decline in righty averages -- and higher overall staff ERA -- for the rest of the season. Right-hander James Shields gets the nod tonight against the Red Sox