[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OLD SCHOOL SHARPS FRUSTRATED BY LOSING MLB TEAMS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]One of the favorite strategies of old school baseball sharps (professional wagerers) is to go against the best teams, and to take the worst teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Among the reasons why:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In recent days, betting on the worst teams has been a disaster. I documented for you over this past weekend how badly things were going for Colorado. Injuries had depleted the roster. They finally posted a win Tuesday Night in Los Angeles after dropping several in a row. Other teams are in the doldrums. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's a listing of all teams who are down at least 15 betting units through Tuesday Night's action...along with a brief description of what they've been doing lately. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SEATTLE (-19 units)
The Mariners dropped their first two home games in a series with the Los Angeles Angels, and were 3-11 their prior 14 games. One of those wins came against Detroit, a team you'll see on the list momentarily. This is a team that isn't just much worse than expected, but a team that hasn't started regressing to the mean yet. Sharps have been taking them as underdogs hoping for the best. A couple of wins over Boston just tricked them into losing all of that back the next few games. This has been a frustrating team for investors. They were supposed to be a group that might win 100 games. Sharps have been cursing them since things started going bad several weeks ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COLORADO (-18 UNITS)
I won't go into much depth here since we had that article over the weekend. Colorado's win Tuesday night ended an 8-game losing streak. You wouldn't believe how many sharps kept chasing the Rockies every game of the Chicago series this past weekend. They didn't notice they were fielding a minor league roster?! That eventual victory put Colorado at 6-17 their last 23 games. If the Rockies had been +250 every time they took the field during that stretch, they still would have lost money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN DIEGO (-17 UNITS)
Most of San Diego's damage was done earlier this season. They seemed to get things going last week. But, it was really just a case of running into other bad teams. The Padres won four of six against San Francisco and Washington. That gave the sharps confidence to back them against the Cubs. The Padres went right back in the tank and dropped the first two of that series. Remember, the sharps are always looking for decent sized underdogs, or home underdogs with clear value. They weren't laying odds with San Diego when they were playing other bad teams. But, they jumped on them at the wrong time once they were facing superior opposition again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT (-16 UNITS)
I mentioned Seattle just a minute ago. That's the only team Detroit's been able to beat consistently. They swept the Mariners at home, and took two of three on the road. Those victories encouraged many sharps to take the Tigers on the road against the Angels, where they dropped two of three, and in the first two games of the Oakland series. I heard a lot of guys "love" Detroit because they were throwing lefthanders against the A's two nights in a row. It's true that Oakland has trouble scoring against lefties. Detroit's had a lot of trouble scoring on the road themselves this year though. This is still a bad team. They're just better than Seattle. Both sharps and squares have had trouble accepting that. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CLEVELAND (-16 UNITS)
This team was red hot a few weeks ago. But, it wasn't a team effort. The starting pitchers had a long string of scoreless innings. Nothing else on the team was working. Nobody was scoring runs, and the bullpen was struggling. Once the starting rotation returned to form (good, but not heroic), the team went in the tank. Cleveland is just 4-13 the last 17 games. One of those wins was against a Kansas City that's also been in collapse mode of late (just not bad enough to make this list). I heard a few guys say "I think the Indians are about to start winning" a week ago. It may still happen. It hasn't yet.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
I have great respect for sharps who make their livings betting sports. I do think this particular factor is a "leak" in their game though. You hear that term used about poker players. They do a lot of things well, but one weakness eventually takes them down. The general public is basically nothing but leaks when it comes to sports gambling. They do almost everything WRONG! Sharps do almost everything right. I think this are could be improved though.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps may be suffering from their leak now. When the lesser teams do actually improve their play, the Wise Guys will be cashing in daily at great prices. You, on the other hand, will be laying huge prices to go the wrong way. Do your best to see if you can avoid that scenario.[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OLD SCHOOL SHARPS FRUSTRATED BY LOSING MLB TEAMS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]One of the favorite strategies of old school baseball sharps (professional wagerers) is to go against the best teams, and to take the worst teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Among the reasons why:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The public typically overreacts to the standings, and will bet big on winning teams, and against losing teams. This drives the line to improper places.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bad teams aren't ever really as bad as they seem during a slump, so you're getting positive EV whenever you take them. If they should be +130 dogs, the market will be paying off at +150 or even higher. They'll often be underdogs in games that are true pick-em's too. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Good teams aren't ever as good as they seem during a hot streak, so you're getting positive EV whenever you go against them. Oddsmakers know the public is going to bet these teams...so they make a true -140 favorite around -170 or -180. In a mismatch, the real line should be about -160 or so. You'll see -200 or -220 on the board. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Teams in extreme positions in the standings tend to regress to the mean. This increases your profit potential because you're not only getting line value, but you're getting line value at a time when the team is about to change form. Losing teams will make changes that improve their winning potential. Winning teams will relax a little bit, losing some of the fire that gave them that big record in the first place. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In recent days, betting on the worst teams has been a disaster. I documented for you over this past weekend how badly things were going for Colorado. Injuries had depleted the roster. They finally posted a win Tuesday Night in Los Angeles after dropping several in a row. Other teams are in the doldrums. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's a listing of all teams who are down at least 15 betting units through Tuesday Night's action...along with a brief description of what they've been doing lately. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SEATTLE (-19 units)
The Mariners dropped their first two home games in a series with the Los Angeles Angels, and were 3-11 their prior 14 games. One of those wins came against Detroit, a team you'll see on the list momentarily. This is a team that isn't just much worse than expected, but a team that hasn't started regressing to the mean yet. Sharps have been taking them as underdogs hoping for the best. A couple of wins over Boston just tricked them into losing all of that back the next few games. This has been a frustrating team for investors. They were supposed to be a group that might win 100 games. Sharps have been cursing them since things started going bad several weeks ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COLORADO (-18 UNITS)
I won't go into much depth here since we had that article over the weekend. Colorado's win Tuesday night ended an 8-game losing streak. You wouldn't believe how many sharps kept chasing the Rockies every game of the Chicago series this past weekend. They didn't notice they were fielding a minor league roster?! That eventual victory put Colorado at 6-17 their last 23 games. If the Rockies had been +250 every time they took the field during that stretch, they still would have lost money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN DIEGO (-17 UNITS)
Most of San Diego's damage was done earlier this season. They seemed to get things going last week. But, it was really just a case of running into other bad teams. The Padres won four of six against San Francisco and Washington. That gave the sharps confidence to back them against the Cubs. The Padres went right back in the tank and dropped the first two of that series. Remember, the sharps are always looking for decent sized underdogs, or home underdogs with clear value. They weren't laying odds with San Diego when they were playing other bad teams. But, they jumped on them at the wrong time once they were facing superior opposition again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT (-16 UNITS)
I mentioned Seattle just a minute ago. That's the only team Detroit's been able to beat consistently. They swept the Mariners at home, and took two of three on the road. Those victories encouraged many sharps to take the Tigers on the road against the Angels, where they dropped two of three, and in the first two games of the Oakland series. I heard a lot of guys "love" Detroit because they were throwing lefthanders against the A's two nights in a row. It's true that Oakland has trouble scoring against lefties. Detroit's had a lot of trouble scoring on the road themselves this year though. This is still a bad team. They're just better than Seattle. Both sharps and squares have had trouble accepting that. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CLEVELAND (-16 UNITS)
This team was red hot a few weeks ago. But, it wasn't a team effort. The starting pitchers had a long string of scoreless innings. Nothing else on the team was working. Nobody was scoring runs, and the bullpen was struggling. Once the starting rotation returned to form (good, but not heroic), the team went in the tank. Cleveland is just 4-13 the last 17 games. One of those wins was against a Kansas City that's also been in collapse mode of late (just not bad enough to make this list). I heard a few guys say "I think the Indians are about to start winning" a week ago. It may still happen. It hasn't yet.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
I have great respect for sharps who make their livings betting sports. I do think this particular factor is a "leak" in their game though. You hear that term used about poker players. They do a lot of things well, but one weakness eventually takes them down. The general public is basically nothing but leaks when it comes to sports gambling. They do almost everything WRONG! Sharps do almost everything right. I think this are could be improved though.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think sharps should wait to see evidence for a "regression to the mean" or a turnaround before betting that it's going to happen. Sorry, it was just dumb to keep betting Colorado last weekend. Yeah, they're eventually going to win. Why throw good money after bad waiting for it to happen?[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think sharps should pay more attention to strength of schedule. It surprises me how often the smartest minds in gambling still don't make that adjustment. Detroit beats Seattle, and suddenly they've got things figured out? No, everyone's beating Seattle right now. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think sharps should pay more attention to the specific causes for a losing spell. Many sharps have backgrounds in blackjack or poker, and they're prone to see a bad spell as luck rather than a weakness. You can have a bad run of cards in blackjack, and it doesn't mean you have suddenly forgotten how to play. It's not always luck in sports when a team goes bad. Some teams have clear weaknesses, or suffer injuries that create them. Betting a regression to the mean in those cases just doesn't make any sense. This isn't a deck that's about to turn. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps may be suffering from their leak now. When the lesser teams do actually improve their play, the Wise Guys will be cashing in daily at great prices. You, on the other hand, will be laying huge prices to go the wrong way. Do your best to see if you can avoid that scenario.[/FONT]
