Friday - 1st Inning - 24-9 +$842.50

baltimore @ toronto (7:07 ET) - NO - $84.50/65.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of baltimore games 45.76% of the time
orioles score a run in the 1st inning in 20.34% of those
orioles allow a run in the 1st inning in 33.90% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of toronto games 45.16% of the time
jays score a run in the 1st inning in 30.65% of those
jays allow a run in the 1st inning in 22.58% of those

current league averages are 52.32%, 30.93%, & 31.15%

in burres's 12 starts, a run has been scored 4 times - he's allowed 2
in marcum's 12 starts, a run has been scored 4 times - he's allowed 2

*miller's been terrible in the 1st. hopefully this continues and we cash this one early. if not, florida has been solid offensively as well.


cincinnati @ florida (7:10 ET) - YES - $55.00/50.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of cincy games 49.18% of the time
reds score a run in the 1st inning in 29.51% of those
reds allow a run in the 1st inning in 26.23% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of florida games 59.32% of the time
marlins score a run in the 1st inning in 38.98% of those
marlins allow a run in the 1st inning in 37.29% of those

current league averages are 52.32%, 30.93%, & 31.15%

in cueto's 12 starts, a run has been scored 6 times - he's allowed 3
in miller's 12 starts, a run has been scored 10 times - he's allowed 8

*miller's been terrible in the 1st. hopefully this continues and we cash this one early. if not, florida has been solid offensively as well.


tampa @ texas (8:05 ET) - NO - $35.00/35.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of tampa games 40.98% of the time
rays score a run in the 1st inning in 22.95% of those
rays allow a run in the 1st inning in 22.95% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of texas games 69.35% of the time
rangers score a run in the 1st inning in 53.23% of those
rangers allow a run in the 1st inning in 27.42% of those

current league averages are 52.32%, 30.93%, & 31.15%

in kazmir's 6 starts, a run has been scored 4 times - he's allowed 1
in padilla's 12 starts, a run has been scored 6 times - he's allowed 2

*i can't believe i'm laying money against texas, but i guess why have a system if you're not going to follow it. texas' #1-4 are a combined 3-26 vs. kazmir. i know the rays are going to score and screw this up.


leans:

cleveland @ detroit - NO (EV) - normally this would have been a play also, but 3 is my limit.

Current Leaders/Trends:

phillies - 69.35% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
angels - 39.34% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
giants - 43.33% of their games have been decided by 1 run
indians - 18.33% of their games have been decided by 1 run
rangers - score a run in the 1st inning 53.23% of games
astros - allow a run in the 1st inning 44.26% of games
angels - score a run in the 1st innning 19.67% of games
white sox - allow a run in the 1st inning 22.03% of games

YTD:

24-9 +$842.50

Current Streak:

1-0 +$75.00

ROI:

30.60%

lazz,

you do a great job on these plays. Win or lose, I can live with using concrete information in order to make 1st inning plays. I generally don't make any, but if I do, I like to see what you put up and tail it.

Thanks again and keep up the good work.

bigtendominator said:

lazz,

you do a great job on these plays. Win or lose, I can live with using concrete information in order to make 1st inning plays. I generally don't make any, but if I do, I like to see what you put up and tail it.

Thanks again and keep up the good work.

Click to expand...

thanks & no problem.

:toast:

Wow...3 plays. I don't like to pick and choose. I guess I have to roll w/ all 3.

You don't seem too sure about that tex/tam one. With that 69.35% rate of runs scored in tex games, what compelled you to actually make this one a play?

Knockout said:

You don't seem too sure about that tex/tam one. With that 69.35% rate of runs scored in tex games, what compelled you to actually make this one a play?

Click to expand...

like i said, i just follow what my spreadsheet tells me. texas is unreal in the 1st inning this year (hence the $35.00 no-balls level of play).

the wager stems mainly from the performance of tampa's pitching staff (including kazmir) in the first inning this season, coupled with their offensive ineptitude and padilla's surprising effectiveness. it's all about value, and @ EV there is value here.

lazzonya said:

like i said, i just follow what my spreadsheet tells me. texas is unreal in the 1st inning this year (hence the $35.00 no-balls level of play).

the wager stems mainly from the performance of tampa's pitching staff (including kazmir) in the first inning this season, coupled with their offensive ineptitude and padilla's surprising effectiveness. it's all about value, and @ EV there is value here.

Click to expand...

You're like me, I do whatever my spreadsheet tells me as well. Can't argue w/ the percentages and the results. The numbers don't lie.

i'm an engineer, so my entire being revolves around numbers and the premise that they don't lie.

they can be manipulated however when necessary to get a project's budget passed. stupid accountants.

lazzonya said:

i'm an engineer, so my entire being revolves around numbers and the premise that they don't lie.

they can be manipulated however when necessary to get a project's budget passed. stupid accountants.

Click to expand...

LOL...I'm a corporate accountant and finance analyst. Spreadsheets are my life.

Bank Robber

Love It Lazz Best Of Luck

BOOTZY said:

Love It Lazz Best Of Luck

Click to expand...

peace.

lets cash these for some drinking money.

:drink:

lazzonya

GOOD LUCK LAZZ! Will be tailing. How bangin' is Fegie's pic in the Maxim top 100 women! Those short jean shorts are unreal on her.

likin cinci/fla fo sho

Griffey got nailed at the plate damn

H. Ramiriez leads off with a hit in the top of the 1st and he doesn't leave first base.

bottom of the 1st that is

Nice night!

:toast: