Belmont-I've got $504 says BB doesn't hit the board

bookie · Jun 7, 2008

Some of my biggest paydays at the track have been on races just like today's Belmont. There is no doubt Big Brown will be the overwhelming favorite but we all know this is horse racing and anything can happen.

Having said that, I think BB should win the race but I got $504 burning a hole in my pocket looking for a huge payoff. I am thinking of a 9-horse trifecta box.

Now I know this may not be the wisest bet but the $504 certainly will not kill me so I will be going to my local OTB and throwing BB out of my 9 horse box. I considered paying the extra ($720) and include him but that won't pay shit so that is out. This is by no means 'handicapping' but a potential large payoff and that is what I'm looking for.

Good Luck

Just noticed Casino Drive is scratched...my investment now is $336.

whalewager · Jun 7, 2008

would be interesting if he didnt...gl...all u need to happen is for him to break down

TTinCO · Jun 7, 2008

Well, if he somehow misses the board, you're going to see some absolutely INSANE payouts.

Then again, just go buy yourself a lottery ticket-the odds of winning are about the same.

ParanoidAndroid · Jun 7, 2008

I like the bet.

I don't know enough about exotics, but it sounds like your box is the equivalent of a "field vs BB" bet, right?

Or, is there another way to bet the field?

michael777 · Jun 7, 2008

how about a $1 superfecta box with the field,with casino drive scratched,throw out big brown,cost is $1680 :smoker2:

ParanoidAndroid · Jun 7, 2008

Nevermind, just re-read your post. This exotic would only win if BB is 4th or worse, right?

Interesting bet. I'd say don't hold your breath, but the payoff would just be massive on this one!

-Slim- · Jun 7, 2008

Not a moronic bet, considering no one except a couple guys know what is really wrong with BB. How many times has an injury been manipulated. If this horse weren't going for the TC he might not even be racing, given the circumstances, his foot has to fall off for him to be pulled. You just never know.

DrunkenHorseplayer · Jun 7, 2008

You're wasting a ton of money by boxing all eight horses; at the very least throw a few of them out of the top spot, such as Guadalcanal, Da' Tara and Anak Nakal.

djefferis · Jun 7, 2008

I dont know about not counting him to hit the board..but can see definite value in not taking him to win. A BB less tri would pay at least 5k for $2, so the return is there to be sure..but boxing all possible combos for $300 gives you basically a 18/1 return or so on the money (the price of almost anyone other than BB or Dennis of Cork).

Personally, I'm picking him in the 2nd/3rd slots in my tri plays..4/10/7 are my faves to beat him out for the win. With this distance you just never know, but talent has to count for SOMETHING. He's going to possibly face some traffic for the first time here and I could easily see someone beating him late. Good luck on this play though, hope it comes through for you as the return would be very nice.

GoSooners · Jun 7, 2008

Something tells me BB either wins this race by 10+ lengths or he completely falls on his ass out of the money..None of these horses have come close to beating him before..There's no reason why they should today unless BB has just run one race too many and breaks down.

Mr.Smith · Jun 7, 2008

some value in the idea Big Brown injury is worse than reported, but they are trying to run him anyway. Im tempted to follow along here

bookie · Jun 7, 2008

Drunken Horseplayer said:
You're wasting a ton of money by boxing all eight horses; at the very least throw a few of them out of the top spot, such as Guadalcanal, Da' Tara and Anak Nakal.

Do you remember the 2002 Belmont Stakes?

[FONT=verdana,ariel,helvetica,sans serif][SIZE=+1]The Belmont Stakes[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=verdana,ariel,helvetica,sans serif]Purse: $1,000,000 Distance: 1 1/2 miles
[/FONT]

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
12 Sarava Prado 142.50 50.00 22.40
8 Medaglia d'Oro Desormeaux 16.00 10.60
5 Sunday Break Stevens 7.10

Winning Time: 2:29.71

$2 Exacta 12-8 2,454.00
$2 Trifecta 12-8-5 25,209.00
$2 Superfecta 12-8-5-11 145,334.00

Mr.Smith · Jun 7, 2008

if I follow along, can anyone point me to good places onlinew to put in this bet? I know some places are better than others in paying true odds and not capping payoffs. at least thats what Ive heard. Me no do horses

lapdance · Jun 7, 2008

Tvg Is Good.

8 Horse Tri Bx Leaving Out Bb

All,1,all

All,all,1

Didn't Figure It Out But Should Be About A Dime

Mr.Smith · Jun 7, 2008

lets bet this, send some sniper to shoot that son of a bitch mid-race :103631605

:uzi:

patswin · Jun 7, 2008

I've had a few relatives call me today looking to bet BB. 2 of them are taking him in extra wheel 1/all. These people don't know shit about racing, they just want to have a bet on the race. I told them I'd bet it for them but I warned them not to expect to make any money if it hits because BB will be such a heavy favorite. Classic warning sign for me, I'm not betting BB and will be looking to take others in this race.

Mr.Smith · Jun 7, 2008

Im in :drink:

bookie · Jun 7, 2008

Mr. Smith said:
Im in :drink:

Good luck my man....lets cash.

:drink:

joeyfitzclick · Jun 7, 2008

Denis of Cork for the win.

honzie · Jun 7, 2008

GoSooners said:
Something tells me BB either wins this race by 10+ lengths or he completely falls on his ass out of the money..None of these horses have come close to beating him before..There's no reason why they should today unless BB has just run one race too many and breaks down.

I think this is about right. No sense in putting BB in 2nd or 3rd, put on top or out. He will have to stumble badly out of gate or worse in order to miss. No telling how many horses have quarter-crack issues everyday, very common. Yesterday would have said 10 lengths or more but now there is buzz about him going up against Curlin later...this might have Kent D throttling down once race is in hand, otherwise any horse would be lucky to be within 7 at the wire.