heh...It's usually about the tenth week of NBA/NHL/MLB that we get the "This is the hardest sport to handicap - hands down" threads going.
I should know....In past years I think I created a couple of those threads.
d1g1t
All in all, I humbly submit that no individual sport is particularly tougher than the other five (MLB, NHL, NBA, CBB, CFB, NFL)
All require diligent work effort, even if you've only got time to focus on a few teams or a particular region of the country.
I'm not aware of too many catch-all strategies as per your example of "home dogs within divisions". If that's been presented to you as some kind of shortcut, I can see why you might be frustrated.
Keep coming back and while you continue to learn, be very conservative with the real $$ you're risking.
I'm in my ninth year of active participation in sports betting (a lot of months off and on prior to this past 18 months) and believe me now and hear me later - I'm still learning and still finding it very challenging to show a consistent profit in any sport.
I should know....In past years I think I created a couple of those threads.
d1g1t
All in all, I humbly submit that no individual sport is particularly tougher than the other five (MLB, NHL, NBA, CBB, CFB, NFL)
All require diligent work effort, even if you've only got time to focus on a few teams or a particular region of the country.
I'm not aware of too many catch-all strategies as per your example of "home dogs within divisions". If that's been presented to you as some kind of shortcut, I can see why you might be frustrated.
Keep coming back and while you continue to learn, be very conservative with the real $$ you're risking.
I'm in my ninth year of active participation in sports betting (a lot of months off and on prior to this past 18 months) and believe me now and hear me later - I'm still learning and still finding it very challenging to show a consistent profit in any sport.
Amendment to my previous post.
Though I've personally shown a small profit in my NFL wagering the past two seasons, I've historically found it to be the toughest to handicap successfully week in and week out.
In my opinion, it's because the number of games available each season is so small (less than 260) and the bookmakers have NFL games more sharply priced across the board than any of the other five major gambling sports.
Though I've personally shown a small profit in my NFL wagering the past two seasons, I've historically found it to be the toughest to handicap successfully week in and week out.
In my opinion, it's because the number of games available each season is so small (less than 260) and the bookmakers have NFL games more sharply priced across the board than any of the other five major gambling sports.
The problem the past few years in baseball is the relief pitching.
I think I would win 90% of my games if they played into the 7th inning. No joke. I have lost more games this past week in the 9th inning then I think I did the entire season about 7 years ago.
For instance, lets say I had Clemens and was laying 2-1 on him when he was in his prime. I knew he would get me to the 7th then the bullpen comes in for a few innings, houston has a great setup team to get to wagner, dotel would pitch the 8th (used to be a closer) and wagner would shut the door. He did blow a few saves before he got traded but usually, he was money in low key games.
The braves were another team that were money. The starters were so much better then they are today. I feel it is the bullpen hands down that is making bases so tough and unpredictable.
Yesterday in the cubs/dodgers games. The under was a lock until the 7th inning and the bullpens come in and they hammer out the over. Texas, the other day friday night i think also. So many games now losing in the 8th and 9th, it never happened like this....
It sucks winning 3/4 of the game pretty easily and then having it all taken away from you by some shit head minor league relief pitcher. Thats gambling I guess.
I think I would win 90% of my games if they played into the 7th inning. No joke. I have lost more games this past week in the 9th inning then I think I did the entire season about 7 years ago.
For instance, lets say I had Clemens and was laying 2-1 on him when he was in his prime. I knew he would get me to the 7th then the bullpen comes in for a few innings, houston has a great setup team to get to wagner, dotel would pitch the 8th (used to be a closer) and wagner would shut the door. He did blow a few saves before he got traded but usually, he was money in low key games.
The braves were another team that were money. The starters were so much better then they are today. I feel it is the bullpen hands down that is making bases so tough and unpredictable.
Yesterday in the cubs/dodgers games. The under was a lock until the 7th inning and the bullpens come in and they hammer out the over. Texas, the other day friday night i think also. So many games now losing in the 8th and 9th, it never happened like this....
It sucks winning 3/4 of the game pretty easily and then having it all taken away from you by some shit head minor league relief pitcher. Thats gambling I guess.
Personally I think it is hockey that holds that crown, but i can certainly understand why people think baseball is the toughest...theres 2 games being played, Pre-Relief and post Relief...(See bluejays)....generally find it helps to stay away from teams that are barely 500 and lower...3rd place teams and higher are far more reliable...
Baseball isn't hard to cap, just have to piece the game together.
Start with the starting pitchers, and they're average expectancy in the game. Both teams hitting averages, also who gives up the long ball, and who is sitting people down.(Makes a big difference) I look at defense first, then see how much offense it would take to win the game, based on how many runs I can count on the starter giving up.
Then the available bullpen era's. and recent form. Have they been gettin blown up lately in the 8th and 9th?
There's trends, stats, standings, streaks, and other stuff, but that's fundamentally capping baseball.
Start with the starting pitchers, and they're average expectancy in the game. Both teams hitting averages, also who gives up the long ball, and who is sitting people down.(Makes a big difference) I look at defense first, then see how much offense it would take to win the game, based on how many runs I can count on the starter giving up.
Then the available bullpen era's. and recent form. Have they been gettin blown up lately in the 8th and 9th?
There's trends, stats, standings, streaks, and other stuff, but that's fundamentally capping baseball.
