AZ: Fade the Consensus Week 11

ArizonaBound · Jun 9, 2008

Using $100 as a base play

Week 1: 5-2, $395

week 2: 9-5, $515

week 3: 14-17, -$80

week 4: 23-8, $1705

week 5: 14-17, $-70

week 6: 14-17, $-265

week 7: 18-13, $665

week 8: 16-15, $620

week 9: 19-22, -$55

week 10: 19-21, +$250

Total through week 10: 144-132, +$3480 (average $348 per week)

Win % converted to standard -110 juice equals 58.3%, down slightly but very solid after 250+ plays and 10 weeks with an average of 4 plays per day.

ArizonaBound · Jun 9, 2008

Day 1 plays

Sea 0
Toronto 6
Seattle +165
I think Toronto takes this one

TB 3
LAA 10
Tampa +135
Hate it, think the Angels spank some TB butt tonight.

Florida is the only other play that could possibly end up a fade, but probably not it seems.
I like both favs here but only one has to get upset for a small profit if playing both dogs. I will probably add Toronto small and LAA bigger.

2dollarRazzplayer · Jun 9, 2008

ya always post all the plays here?

we had talked a while back about this but where exactly are these tallies coming from? do you book bets or something?

TheWolf · Jun 9, 2008

What do you consider the consensus?

ArizonaBound · Jun 9, 2008

The tally is done on another service play forum. The service plays are the exact same from forum to forum but one in particular does a tally of them. I won't mention the name again, but you can look back through my posts and find it without too much difficulty.
I added filters or criteria to the tally just to determine what would be a play vs a no play.
1. 5 or more tout difference - e.g. 8-3 qualifies but 9-5 does not
2. must be at least 2:1 ratio. 11-6 qualifies under the 5 or more but not the 2:1
3. NO more than 5 touts on the opposite side. 12-6 qualifies under the first 2 criteria but not the 3rd.

Pretty simple and takes just a few minutes. the later in the day the better which is fine because MOst of the time you get better odds from the books when you are on the fades.

I try to post daily but if I can't I come back in the day after and post the results. The tally can easily be found if you are interested or can be done by someone on this forum if they wanted, I dont have time everyday but could start it here as well?

ArizonaBound · Jun 9, 2008

Sf -7 Over -1
Wash -4 Under -1

Cin -9 Over -1
Fla -3 Under -1
Florida +120. I like it for a small play

Clev -10 Over -2
Det -7 Under

Sea Over -2
Tor -8 Under
Seattle +165. Think touts got this one right, Toronto wins?

Tb -3 Over
Laa -14 Under -1
Tampa +135, hate it. Love angels here.

candylicker · Jun 9, 2008

wiz can you start posting the money fades again. thay where $$$. thank you

4SHO · Jun 9, 2008

ODDZ so who do we fade?

4SHO · Jun 9, 2008

PC16 · Jun 9, 2008

but remember..
"nothing is 100%, just life and death."

AZ

ArizonaBound · Jun 10, 2008

wizardofoddz said:
Now your going to guess which one the touts have right??????
either you fade or you don't....
Don't make it a guessing game

This is why fading doesn't work....
Fade the money day in and day out, NO opinion necessary......

Just giving out my thougts on the games based on my own observations of the teams and games this year. I started tracking these to see how the results would work out. I have been cherry picking and selectively playing or fading. I choose to use this as another tool, not the holy grail or only information for deciding which side to play. I have been doing very well with that approach. I did take it on the chin with LAA last night but did lay off some because of this informaton. As I have said repeatedly....use the information as you see fit. I am not yet blindly playing but nights like last night certainly make me think it is time???

ArizonaBound · Jun 10, 2008

The only two fades came in, seattle +160 or more and tampa +140 or more. How can so many touts continue to get it wrong?

Sf -11 Over -1
Wash -5 Under -1

Cin -12 Over -1
Fla -7 Under -1

Clev -11 Over - 3
Det -9 Under

Sea 2 Over -4
Tor -16 Under

Tb -3 Over 1
Laa -24 Under -2

ArizonaBound · Jun 10, 2008

Favs might come in today as they got smacked yesterday

Still early but I don't know if I will be able to update later:

CWS 9
Det 0
SHIT, THIS IS MY PLAY OF THE DAY. They don't get them all wrong, but I hate being on this side.

Baltimore 0
Boston 4
Will likely qualify later today?

Seattle 0
Toronto 6
They are chasing their money with big juice on Toronto. I will probably play Seattle

NYY 4
Oakland 1
Still early?? Maybe?

Atlanta 1
Cubs 9
I like the UGLY dog myself??

SF 0
Colorado 3
Maybe?

LAD 1
SD 4
Maybe?

Feel free to drop comments or thoughts on any of these?

SaltyVeteran · Jun 10, 2008

Now your going to guess which one the touts have right??????
either you fade or you don't....
Don't make it a guessing game

This is why fading doesn't work....
Fade the money day in and day out, NO opinion necessary......

Listen to this guy AZ. You can't pick and choose. You did that with the Angels yesterday. If you got something that works, go with it. We've seen how the "pick and pop" works :nopityA:

SaltyVeteran · Jun 10, 2008

And if you're going to follow this, get the hell off the white sox

hno:

ViewtheFuture · Jun 10, 2008

Washington should be considered a lose yesterday for record keeping purposes.

ArizonaBound · Jun 10, 2008

I hear you Salty, I do. I just wanted to see more data and time before blindly following. I have had some success playing the games that I have no opinion on myself, but the simple thing is to roll with it.

VIEW: thanks for pointing out the Washington game....busy as hell and just missed it.

Yesterday 2-1, +200

kreitmaster · Jun 10, 2008

Anyone know a good site that tracks what percentage of the public is on each game? Please drop me an email at kreitman4@aol.com if you do. Much appreciated

2dollarRazzplayer · Jun 10, 2008

Wizard... how high of a % do you need to do to fade away on the other side?

60.40 and you take the 40 side? You wrote 67% or better in your thread, but I'm not sure if that refers to your record or the amount of bets the public has put on the other side.

Can you clarify? My brother does this with football and hasn't had a losing season yet. He says it works best in NFL but I'd like to try it out in bases.

candylicker · Jun 10, 2008

Like i said before wiz, please just keep posting your money fades because they are helping people more than you know. Thabnks again. Ab thank you as well