CalvinTy's MLB MM system 23-16 +11.59 units

CWS/DET Over 9.5

===
Jose Contreras (R) Previous Starts vs. Detroit (pasting last 2 years only)


<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="13%">Date</td> <td width="12%">Opposition</td> <td width="8%">Scr</td> <td width="12%">Line</td> <td width="5%">W/L</td> <td width="5%">IP</td> <td width="5%">H</td> <td width="5%">R</td> <td width="5%">ER</td> <td width="4%">SO</td> <td width="4%">BB</td> <td width="4%">HR</td> <td width="6%">PIT</td> <td width="6%">P/IP</td> <td width="6%">G/F</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/11/08</td> <td class="datacell"> DET</td> <td class="datacell">2-5</td> <td class="datacell">-109/10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">6.2</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 102 </td> <td class="datacell"> 15.3 </td> <td class="datacell"> 3.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/04/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ DET</td> <td class="datacell">8-5</td> <td class="datacell">133/9</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">5.0</td> <td class="datacell">10</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 92 </td> <td class="datacell"> 18.4 </td> <td class="datacell"> 5.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">09/30/07</td> <td class="datacell"> DET</td> <td class="datacell">3-13</td> <td class="datacell">-109/9.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.1</td> <td class="datacell">9</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 86 </td> <td class="datacell"> 13.6 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.12</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">07/25/07</td> <td class="datacell"> DET</td> <td class="datacell">9-13</td> <td class="datacell">122/10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">4.2</td> <td class="datacell">12</td> <td class="datacell">9</td> <td class="datacell"> 9 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 95 </td> <td class="datacell"> 20.4 </td> <td class="datacell"> 4.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/21/07</td> <td class="datacell"> @ DET</td> <td class="datacell">7-5</td> <td class="datacell">130/8.5</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">7.0</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 86 </td> <td class="datacell"> 12.3 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.11</td></tr></tbody></table>===
===
Nate Robertson (L) Last 10 Starts

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="13%">Date</td> <td width="12%">Opposition</td> <td width="8%">Scr</td> <td width="12%">Line</td> <td width="5%">W/L</td> <td width="5%">IP</td> <td width="5%">H</td> <td width="5%">R</td> <td width="5%">ER</td> <td width="4%">SO</td> <td width="4%">BB</td> <td width="4%">HR</td> <td width="6%">PIT</td> <td width="6%">P/IP</td> <td width="6%">G/F</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">06/04/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ OAK</td> <td class="datacell">2-10</td> <td class="datacell">150/8</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.1</td> <td class="datacell">8</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 109 </td> <td class="datacell"> 17.2 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.56</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/30/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SEA</td> <td class="datacell">7-4</td> <td class="datacell">-110/9.5</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">5.2</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 107 </td> <td class="datacell"> 18.9 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.88</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/24/08</td> <td class="datacell"> MIN</td> <td class="datacell">19-3</td> <td class="datacell">-155/10</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.1</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell"> 3 </td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 99 </td> <td class="datacell"> 15.6 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/18/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ ARI</td> <td class="datacell">0-4</td> <td class="datacell">108/10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">5.2</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 91 </td> <td class="datacell"> 16.1 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.22</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/13/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ KC</td> <td class="datacell">2-3</td> <td class="datacell">115/9</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">7.0</td> <td class="datacell">10</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 2 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 82 </td> <td class="datacell"> 11.7 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.12</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/06/08</td> <td class="datacell"> BOS</td> <td class="datacell">0-5</td> <td class="datacell">-126/10</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">6.1</td> <td class="datacell">10</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 109 </td> <td class="datacell"> 17.2 </td> <td class="datacell"> 2.75</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">05/01/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ NYY</td> <td class="datacell">8-4</td> <td class="datacell">100/10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">5.2</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 106 </td> <td class="datacell"> 18.7 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/25/08</td> <td class="datacell"> LAA</td> <td class="datacell">3-4</td> <td class="datacell">-106/10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">7.0</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 89 </td> <td class="datacell"> 12.7 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/20/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ TOR</td> <td class="datacell">3-5</td> <td class="datacell">113/9.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">5.0</td> <td class="datacell">8</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 93 </td> <td class="datacell"> 18.6 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.43</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/15/08</td> <td class="datacell"> MIN</td> <td class="datacell">6-5</td> <td class="datacell">-128/9</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.1</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 95 </td> <td class="datacell"> 15.0 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.56</td></tr></tbody></table>===

I know it's only part of the picture, but that does scream Over 9.5 IMHO. GL!

* CalvinTy

Thanks for the work you put in. I've been following on some.

As mentioned earlier, my stronger plays are on TB and Oak +1.5:

#CT13; 3I,1O; NYY (Wang) at Oak (Eveland) +1.5 -143 (MB); risked $78.21 to win $54.69 {$54.14 ac}
#CT14; 2O; TB (Shields) -104 (JB) at LAA (Jer. Weaver); risked $60.32 to win $58.00
#CT15; 1I,1O; LAD (Kershaw) at SD (Maddux) -121 (MB); risked $12.22 to win $10.10 {$10 ac}

I just threw in the SD play at the last second...

Sorry no time for anyone to follow but at least I mentioned TB and Oak +1.5 earlier tonight...

* CalvinTy

alright... extremely low attention span man.. is there a cliff's notes to what you are doing here?

good luck BTW...

Uno said:

alright... extremely low attention span man.. is there a cliff's notes to what you are doing here?

good luck BTW...

Click to expand...

Me and cliff's notes-- that's a challenge as I'm a chatterbox.

Let me try anyway, grins. The gist is that I use a MM system that, yes, is a type of martingaling system. I made modifications to a well-known MM system (Stoffo Monthly Set Program, I forget exact wording right now...) that was all over the Internet that I didn't like in it's original concept.

It turned out it was really a Briton's work from way past in 1999, but he allowed me to post his modifications that he had as well. I can find old thread about it and bring it up one day.

Down to the raw numbers:

Each series's structure looks like this:

Outside; Inside; Outside
0.4u; 0.2u; 0.4u = u being 1 unit

You wager to win the combined Outsides bet (0.4u + 0.4u); to win 0.8 units for 1st play.
If it loses, you divide 1/3 of total loss and spread it among each part.

Example:

$50 series
$20;$10;$20 format

1st play; -120 favorite that lost; (risked $48 to win $40); spread $48 loss into 3 parts; $16 each

so the 2nd play would have format of:
$36;$26;$36

Now for 2nd play, you need to win $72. You leave the $26 amount alone. Let's say this play wins. Now you have one more part of the series to complete, the Inside bet of $26. For your 1st Inside play (after 2 Outsides plays), you wager "to win $26". When you are wagering the Inside bet, any loss would be doubled up like a pure martingale, which I still want to tweak further eventually.

Giving historical example from the recent #CT3 series:

MB CT3O 1O $47.67 $40.40 05/20/2008 NYM (at Atl) GM1 -118 [L, 1-6]
MB CT3O 2O $85.82 $72.73 05/20/2008 ChC (at Hou) -118 [L, 2-4]
MB CT3O 3O $95.15 $131.31 06/03/2008 Col (at LAD) +138 [W, 3-0]
MB CT3I 1I,3O $50.03 $54.03 06/04/2008 Ari (at Mil) +108 [L, 1-10]
MB CT3I 2I,3O $79.23 $104.58 06/04/2008 Tor (at NYY) +132 [L, 1-5]
MB CT3I 3I,3O $201.22 $184.61 06/05/2008 Fla/Atl Over O9.5 -109 [W, 5-7]

I went 2-4, but gained 1 unit with an Outside win at the 3rd level and then an Inside win on the 3rd level.

That's the short version, :lol:!

* CalvinTy

Results for June 10th

#CT11; 2I,1O; SF (Misch) at COL (Cook) -176 (BD); risked $37.84 to win $21.50; WON, 5-10
#CT12; 1I,2O; PHI (Myers) at FLA (Nolasco) +119 (MB); risked $18.67 to win $22.22 {$22 ac}; WON, 4-5
#CT13; 2I,1O; STL (Boggs)/CIN (Bailey) Over 9.5 +101 (MB); risked $27.07 to win $27.34 {$27.07 ac}; LOST, 7-2 (BY HALF RUN)
#CT14; 1O; MIN (Baker) +163 (JB) at CLE (Sabathia); risked $25.00 to win $40.75; LOST, 0-1 (CG BY CC; GREAT JOB BY CC)
#CT15; 1O; CWS (Contreras)/DET (Robertson) Over 9.5 +117 (MB); risked $34.53 to win $40.40 {$40 ac}; WON, 4-6 (BY HALF RUN)
#CT13; 3I,1O; NYY (Wang) at Oak (Eveland) +1.5 -143 (MB); risked $78.21 to win $54.69 {$54.14 ac}; LOST, 3-1 (I KNEW IT'D BE CLOSE GAME; NYY INSURANCE RUN IN 9TH INN BREAKS THE COVER)
#CT14; 2O; TB (Shields) -104 (JB) at LAA (Jer. Weaver); risked $60.32 to win $58.00; LOST, 1-6 (SHIELDS MISSES BEING AT HOME, I GUESS)
#CT15; 1I,1O; LAD (Kershaw) at SD (Maddux) -121 (MB); risked $12.22 to win $10.10 {$10 ac}; LOST, 7-2

Just was wrong on several games. Looking back (which is what handicappers tend to dismiss as they focus on next day's games the minute the final game is over), the best loss would be the MIN +163. Baker/Sabathia did their jobs, and it was evenly-matched so getting MIN at +163 is something I'd keep grabbing. The totals split and I can see the O/U was in the right area so it became a toss-up. I prefer to look for totals that appear to be 1+ run "off". TB's Shields just tanked yesterday even though I knew he was on the road and expecting to serve his suspension today.

The loss that gave me a sour taste-- the OAK +1.5 pick. I almost never play +1.5, in fact, 1st one in maybe 3 years. I just figured it'd be a close game, but no feel on whether struggling Wang or good Wang would show up. With Eveland at home, I *still* wasn't confident to take Oak +113 or so, but observed that the +1.5 was only -138 to -142 for most of day. That's only 50 points differential between ML and RL, not a common sight, as it's usually about 80 points differential. That convinced me to play the OAK +1.5 thinking that if NYY ekes out a win on the road, it'd be a 1-run game. How ironic it was a 2-1 game for most of the game. I read the recap and wow, OAK blew it enough times:

"Oakland put its leadoff hitter aboard in each of the first seven innings."
"The A's had won five of seven but Oakland missed key chances by grounding into double plays in the third, fifth, sixth and seventh innings."

OAK also loaded the bases in the 7th as the lead runner was held up then next batter hits into GIDP to end the inning.

"Cabrera's seventh homer (in 9th) snapped a 19-inning scoreless streak by Oakland's bullpen."

Can't complain anymore with having the right pick (OAK), but just wrong night to make it happen.

* CalvinTy

updated record

6/10: 3-5 -$119.32 (-2.39 units)
STD: 26-21 +$460.12 (+9.20 units)

* CalvinTy

Keep up the good work Calvin

Get it back today! I was on Oakland as well just fell asleep after W/Sox game to put the bet in. I guess I got lucky.

ELMO75 said:

Get it back today! I was on Oakland as well just fell asleep after W/Sox game to put the bet in. I guess I got lucky.

Click to expand...

Haha, that's funny. Opposite effect for me-- I was chatting with my fiancée as we were on our computers in the office, then I saw it was 9:50pm EDT, so I said to her, "Oh I have 10 minutes to make the last bets."

The 10pm bets went 0-3, go figure. :missingte

* CalvinTy