Jurrjens trying to win the blister battle
Special to ESPN.com
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Updated: June 11, 2008
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Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens
1. Has a blister burst Jurrjens' bubble?
Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens had been one of this season's most productive rookies before he began encountering a blister problem. Jurrjens, who had a 2.64 ERA and allowed only one home run through his first 10 starts, has posted an 8.40 ERA with four home runs over his past three games after getting the blister on his right thumb. Some starting pitchers have missed considerable time with slow-healing blisters. Jurrjens' previous outing was slightly better than his two previous efforts. Wednesday night's start at Wrigley Field could show how he is progressing.
After his May 21 start, one of Jurrjens' best outings of the season, the blister clearly impacted his fastball grip and reduced its zip in the next two starts:
Jurrjens average velocities in past four starts
Start SLG against Fastball (mph) Changeup (mph) Difference (mph)
May 21 .185 92.8 84.6 8.2
May 26 .667 89.2 82.2 7.0
May 31 .762 89.9 82.2 7.7
June 5 .556 93.7 85.7 8.0
Hitters make better contact when Jurrjens muscles up on his fastball, probably because the ball has less action through the strike zone. So watch if Jurrjens overthrows his fastball Wednesday night or throttles it back to his ideal 91-92 mph range.
The other major factor for Jurrjens is his ability to work the bottom part of the zone with his heater. Before his recent struggles, 41 percent of all at-bats ending on Jurrjens' fastball were down in the zone. That number tumbled to 26 percent over his past three starts. Hitters were 14-for-35 (.400) against his fastball during the past three contests when he left it above the knees.
The Braves' offense scored seven runs in each of his "blister starts," enabling Jurrjens to come out relatively unscathed -- he won once and had two no-decisions. Against Cubs starter Ryan Dempster (7-2, 2.90 ERA), runs may be harder to come by Wednesday night.
Mariano Rivera
Rivera
2. Rivera taking care of business
Mariano Rivera is rewarding the Yankees for signing him to the richest contract ever for a reliever this offseason. Even though he allowed two home runs to the Royals over the weekend (the first he has allowed in almost 10 months), Rivera's ERA on the season is 0.93, and he has allowed just two walks while recording 29 strikeouts in as many innings.
How good is Rivera's control? Good enough that he isn't overly concerned with throwing first-pitch strikes. On the first pitch, or when ahead in the count, Rivera is very close to league average in strike percentage. But once he falls behind or gets ahead in the count, Rivera becomes a strike-throwing machine. As a result, only 10 of the 101 batters he has faced this season have worked the count to three balls.
Rivera strike percentage
Group count Rivera League average
First pitch 61.4 58.1
Pitcher ahead 67.3 60.4
Pitcher behind 83.3 65.4
One A's hitter who might actually be happy to see Rivera on the mound is Jack Cust. Rivera's cut fastball may be one of the nastiest pitches in the game, but any fastball looks good to the worst off-speed hitter in the league.
In three lifetime at-bats against Rivera, Cust has one home run. It came in 2003 on a 1-1 pitch that was middle-away (a location where Cust has hit the most home runs over his career). Both of the home runs Rivera allowed against Kansas City were on inside pitches -- the first on an 0-0 pitch to David DeJesus, and the second an 0-2 offering to Jose Guillen.
Cole Hamels
Hamels
3. Hamels again tries to reel in Marlins
Cole Hamels has been one of the top pitchers in the National League in his three seasons with the Phillies. He has won nearly two-thirds of his decisions (30-17), with a 3.61 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. This year, the 24-year-old has continued his pitching maturation. The lefty leads Philadelphia starters with a 3.36 ERA, and he ranks among the NL leaders with a 1.07 WHIP.
Those stats are impressive, but the Florida Marlins, Wednesday night's opponent, clearly have Hamels' number. His 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Florida is the highest of any team he has faced more than once, and his lone 2008 start against the young Marlins resulted in a 7-3 loss.
Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez has belted five doubles in 15 at-bats against Hamels, and all five have been hit off Hamels' changeup. Ramirez is 7-for-15 (.467) overall against the Phillies' ace.
Hamels throws his fastball and changeup about 85 percent of the time, and Marlins hitters battered both pitches two starts ago. Hamels threw his change in the zone more often than usual (57 percent on May 31, 50 percent in 12 other starts), and this resulted in a double and a home run in six at-bats.
Hamels against Florida and all other teams in 2008
May 31 vs. FLA 12 other starts
BAVG against fastball .267 (4-for-15) .228 (37-for-162)
HR rate against fastball 2 HRs in 15 ABs 4 HRs in 162 ABs
BAVG against changeup .333 (2-for-6) .168 (18-for-107)
HR rate against changeup 1 HR in 6 ABs 2 HRs in 107 ABs
On Thursday, Hamels recovered from two brutal performances (13 ER in 9 2/3 IP) and tossed a shutout. He allowed only three hits and his changeup held Cincinnati batters to just one hit in 12 at-bats. His high-80s fastball was hit hard (.385 well-hit average against), but the Reds went 2-for-13 (.154) against it.
Special to ESPN.com
Insider
Updated: June 11, 2008
* Comment
Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens
1. Has a blister burst Jurrjens' bubble?
Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens had been one of this season's most productive rookies before he began encountering a blister problem. Jurrjens, who had a 2.64 ERA and allowed only one home run through his first 10 starts, has posted an 8.40 ERA with four home runs over his past three games after getting the blister on his right thumb. Some starting pitchers have missed considerable time with slow-healing blisters. Jurrjens' previous outing was slightly better than his two previous efforts. Wednesday night's start at Wrigley Field could show how he is progressing.
After his May 21 start, one of Jurrjens' best outings of the season, the blister clearly impacted his fastball grip and reduced its zip in the next two starts:
Jurrjens average velocities in past four starts
Start SLG against Fastball (mph) Changeup (mph) Difference (mph)
May 21 .185 92.8 84.6 8.2
May 26 .667 89.2 82.2 7.0
May 31 .762 89.9 82.2 7.7
June 5 .556 93.7 85.7 8.0
Hitters make better contact when Jurrjens muscles up on his fastball, probably because the ball has less action through the strike zone. So watch if Jurrjens overthrows his fastball Wednesday night or throttles it back to his ideal 91-92 mph range.
The other major factor for Jurrjens is his ability to work the bottom part of the zone with his heater. Before his recent struggles, 41 percent of all at-bats ending on Jurrjens' fastball were down in the zone. That number tumbled to 26 percent over his past three starts. Hitters were 14-for-35 (.400) against his fastball during the past three contests when he left it above the knees.
The Braves' offense scored seven runs in each of his "blister starts," enabling Jurrjens to come out relatively unscathed -- he won once and had two no-decisions. Against Cubs starter Ryan Dempster (7-2, 2.90 ERA), runs may be harder to come by Wednesday night.
Mariano Rivera
Rivera
2. Rivera taking care of business
Mariano Rivera is rewarding the Yankees for signing him to the richest contract ever for a reliever this offseason. Even though he allowed two home runs to the Royals over the weekend (the first he has allowed in almost 10 months), Rivera's ERA on the season is 0.93, and he has allowed just two walks while recording 29 strikeouts in as many innings.
How good is Rivera's control? Good enough that he isn't overly concerned with throwing first-pitch strikes. On the first pitch, or when ahead in the count, Rivera is very close to league average in strike percentage. But once he falls behind or gets ahead in the count, Rivera becomes a strike-throwing machine. As a result, only 10 of the 101 batters he has faced this season have worked the count to three balls.
Rivera strike percentage
Group count Rivera League average
First pitch 61.4 58.1
Pitcher ahead 67.3 60.4
Pitcher behind 83.3 65.4
One A's hitter who might actually be happy to see Rivera on the mound is Jack Cust. Rivera's cut fastball may be one of the nastiest pitches in the game, but any fastball looks good to the worst off-speed hitter in the league.
In three lifetime at-bats against Rivera, Cust has one home run. It came in 2003 on a 1-1 pitch that was middle-away (a location where Cust has hit the most home runs over his career). Both of the home runs Rivera allowed against Kansas City were on inside pitches -- the first on an 0-0 pitch to David DeJesus, and the second an 0-2 offering to Jose Guillen.
Cole Hamels
Hamels
3. Hamels again tries to reel in Marlins
Cole Hamels has been one of the top pitchers in the National League in his three seasons with the Phillies. He has won nearly two-thirds of his decisions (30-17), with a 3.61 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. This year, the 24-year-old has continued his pitching maturation. The lefty leads Philadelphia starters with a 3.36 ERA, and he ranks among the NL leaders with a 1.07 WHIP.
Those stats are impressive, but the Florida Marlins, Wednesday night's opponent, clearly have Hamels' number. His 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Florida is the highest of any team he has faced more than once, and his lone 2008 start against the young Marlins resulted in a 7-3 loss.
Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez has belted five doubles in 15 at-bats against Hamels, and all five have been hit off Hamels' changeup. Ramirez is 7-for-15 (.467) overall against the Phillies' ace.
Hamels throws his fastball and changeup about 85 percent of the time, and Marlins hitters battered both pitches two starts ago. Hamels threw his change in the zone more often than usual (57 percent on May 31, 50 percent in 12 other starts), and this resulted in a double and a home run in six at-bats.
Hamels against Florida and all other teams in 2008
May 31 vs. FLA 12 other starts
BAVG against fastball .267 (4-for-15) .228 (37-for-162)
HR rate against fastball 2 HRs in 15 ABs 4 HRs in 162 ABs
BAVG against changeup .333 (2-for-6) .168 (18-for-107)
HR rate against changeup 1 HR in 6 ABs 2 HRs in 107 ABs
On Thursday, Hamels recovered from two brutal performances (13 ER in 9 2/3 IP) and tossed a shutout. He allowed only three hits and his changeup held Cincinnati batters to just one hit in 12 at-bats. His high-80s fastball was hit hard (.385 well-hit average against), but the Reds went 2-for-13 (.154) against it.
