Friday - 1st Inning - 30-12 +$952.50 (19.05u)

pittsburgh @ baltimore (7:05 ET) - NO - $50.00/50.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of pirate games 52.24% of the time
pirates score a run in the 1st inning in 22.39% of those
pirates allow a run in the 1st inning in 37.31% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of oriole games 46.15% of the time
o's score a run in the 1st inning in 20.00% of those
o's allow a run in the 1st inning in 35.38% of those

in dumatrait's 8 starts, a run has been scored 3 times - he's allowed 2
in burres's 13 starts, a run has been scored 4 times - he's allowed 2


oakland @ san francisco (10:15 ET) - YES - $35.00/35.00

a run is scored in the 1st inning of oakland games 51.52% of the time
a's score a run in the 1st inning in 27.27% of those
a's allow a run in the 1st inning in 34.85% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of giant games 44.78% of the time
giants score a run in the 1st inning in 26.87% of those
giants allow a run in the 1st inning in 28.38% of those

in smith's 12 starts, a run has been scored 7 times - he's allowed 7
in zito's 13 starts, a run has been scored 7 times - he's allowed 6


current league averages are 52.17%, 30.69%, & 30.84%

*going light because of the interleague factor. the value of these bets would normally be almost double by my wagers.

leans:

texas @ NY mets - NO (EV)


Current Leaders/Trends:

phillies - 69.12% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
white sox - 39.39% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
giants - 43.28% of their games have been decided by 1 run
indians - 17.91% of their games have been decided by 1 run
rangers - score a run in the 1st inning 50.72% of games
phillies - allow a run in the 1st inning 44.12% of games
orioles - score a run in the 1st innning 20.00% of games
white sox - allow a run in the 1st inning 21.21% of games

YTD:

30-12 +$952.50 (19.05 units)

Current Streak:

4-0 +$220.00

ROI:

28.48%

Good job

Thank you, Lazz.

I'm down with you.

Good luck!

a few asked:

my "system" doesn't factor in specific ballparks or team vs. team history, so the interleague factor should not matter much.

i do use pitcher vs. batter history. when there is little or no history, i use a multiplier that favors the pitcher (thus moving the result towards NO). this should apply more during interleague play.

peace

lazzonya

laz, do you have this info in a spreadsheet ?

do you keep team and pitcher logs ?

would love to see it if you do .

i keep team stats for:

% 1st inning score - either/both team(s)
% 1st inning runs scored by team
% 1st inning runs allowed by team
% 1 run games by team

i keep starting pitcher stats for:

total starts
% starts that have a 1st inning run - either/both team(s)
% starts that the pitcher allows a 1st inning run
career history vs. #1-4 hitters of opposing team

all these percentages are then plugged into an equation that spits out a final "score". high scores say YES, low scores say NO. the "score" is plugged into a table that gives the YES or NO a wager level.

this is an ongoing project and i'm looking to add in factors such as:

pitcher's previous starts in same year vs. same team
current streaks of pitcher and #1-4 hitters of opponent
weather / game time / shadow considerations
etc.

someday it might all come together.

peace

lazzonya

You have developed a solid formula thus far, keep it up!!

:toast:

:money8: