Runline Versus Moneyline. The Best Bet?

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"Straight Cash Homie"
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I believe if your going to play favorites that you HAVE TO play them on the runline. You still have to pick winners, but the RL adds value to the bet. I have seen a few very smart cappers say they like the runlines, but rarely see any of them actually play them all the time. I think it is the only way to play favorites and I’m going to prove it in this thread. I’m not saying just RL when the favorite is –150 or higher. It actually seems that favorites of –200 or more rarely cover the runline, but I haven’t backtracked this. I don’t like to play favorites of –200 in any kind of way (parlay, RL, or whatever). If there is no value in playing on the moneyline, than there is also no value in parlaying them. I’m saying to play the RL every time you bet on a favorite. I don’t think you should split the bet with half on the RL and half on the ML. If the RL is the best bet than that is were all the money should be placed. I don’t have the RL odds on all of the games this month so I will track it here for the next two weeks to show that it is the better play. If you risk the same amount on the RL that you would have on the ML the payoff is approximately twice as much every time both bets win. It may suck to lose a few bets by ½ a run, but how bad does it suck when a –160 chalk goes down in flames.

Here is a game I played last night that is a good example. I played Cincinnati. I risked $450 to win $300. If I had risked that on the RL, I could have won twice that much. By playing the RL you can also reduce the amount you risk to win the same amount if you so choose.

From June 1<sup>st</sup> through June 12<sup>th</sup> the favorites have won 102 of 184 games for 55.5% win rate (not great to be laying a lot of juice with that kind of win rate). This doesn’t matter because I’m not suggesting play every favorite on the RL, just whenever you do play a favorite don’t bet the ML. Of the 102 games that the favorite did win 78 also covered the –1 ½ RL for a 76.5% cover rate. I saw on another sight that favorites covered in the 70-75% range last year so this small sample of this year seems to be pretty close. Also, favorites in the –110 to –150 range covered just as much and sometimes more than favorites in the –160 to –200 or more range.

So, since I don’t have the RL odds for June 1<sup>st</sup> to June 12<sup>th</sup> I will estimate what I expect to see over the next few weeks as I track the real odds. If you would have bet to win $100 on just the 102 favorites that did actually win from the beginning of the month the results would be +$10,200 since they all obviously won. Now, lets say that all RL bets pay twice as much as a ML bet when you risk the same amount (you will see from today’s odds below that this is true). There were 78 RL winning bets that would have paid twice as much as the ML bets for $15,600. 24 RL bets would have lost on the RL that the ML actually won. Let’s just assume the average risk amount was $150 (probably high but we will see in the next few weeks). That means 24 RL bets would have lost $3600. That still leaves a Profit of $12,000 for the RL bets instead of the $10,200 from the ML bets.

Time to see what the next 2 weeks will prove. I will use RX opening line odds for ease of testing, but these are 20 cent lines, which are usually higher against the favorite so better odds can actually be had.
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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June 12th Odds

Pittsburgh –125 (125 to win 100)
RL +170 Covered (125 to win 215)
Detroit –115 (115 to win 100)
RL +170 Win (115 to win 195)
NY Mets –150 (150 to win 100)
RL +150 Lose (150 to win 225)
Milwaukee –140 (140 to win 100)
RL +120 Covered (140 to win 170)
Kansas City –130 (130 to win 100)
RL +160 Win (130 to win 210)
Chicago Cubs –150 (150 to win 100)
RL +140 Win (150 to win 210)
Colorado –115 (115 to win 100)
RL +170 Lose (115 to win 195)
San Diego –150 (150 to win 100)
RL +150 Covered (150 to win 225)
Cleveland –200 (200 to win 100)
RL +100 Covered (200 to win 200)
Boston –155 (155 to win 100)
RL +135 Covered (155 to win 210)
Cincinnati –125 (125 to win 100)
RL +165 Covered (125 to win 205)
Philadelphia –115 (115 to win 100)
RL +140 Covered (115 to win 160)
NY Yankees –115 (115 to win 100)
RL +145 (115 to win 165)



On 6/12/08 Favorites that won covered the RL in 8 of 11 games for 73%, which is what the historical average of covers are.



Risk on all bets $1785
ML Bets have a return of $2620 for a profit of $835
RL Bets have a return of $2675 for a profit of $890
[FONT=&quot]RL Bets show a return of $55 more dollars. If my math is right, that is a 3% gain on money invested. That isn’t a lot for sure, but why not take every edge that can be gained. Let’s see what happens for 2 weeks.[/FONT]
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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June 13th Odds

St. Louis –110 (110 to win 100)
-1 ½ +180 (110 to win 200)
Toronto –140 (140 to win 100)
-1 ½ +160 (140 to win 225)
Cleveland –140 (140 to win 100)
-1 ½ +155 (140 to win 215)
Detroit –135 (135 to win 100)
-1 ½ +160 (135 to win 215)
Baltimore –120 (120 to win 100)
-1 ½ +165 (120 to win 200)
Tampa Bay –135 (135 to win 100)
-1 ½ +160 (135 to win 215)
NY Mets –155 (155 to win 100)
-1 ½ +140 (155 to win 215)
Cincinnati –115 (115 to win 100)
-1 ½ +175 (115 to win 200)
Milwaukee –150 (150 to win 100)
-1 ½ +150 (150 to win 225)
NY Yankees –145 (145 to win 100)
-1 ½ +115 (145 to win 170)
Chicago White Sox –155 (155 to win 100)
-1 ½ +135 (155 to win 210)
Arizona –140 (140 to win 100)
-1 ½ +150 (140 to win 210)
LA Angels –145 (145 to win 100)
-1 ½ +150 (145 to win 215)
Seattle –145 (145 to win 100)
-1 ½ +145 (145 to win 210)
Oakland –120 (120 to win 100)
-1 ½ +140 (120 to win 170)



[FONT=&quot]Notes: The opening RL odds for the Pittsburgh/Baltimore & Minnesota Milwaukee games were not correct, so I took the current odds when I viewed them and wrote this up.[/FONT]
 

instinct$
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I've tried it in the short term and didn't have much success. I actually remember turning on espn one day last year and hearing stuart scott saying "season record for number of one run games" hahaha went 1-11. I think the 1 run games will kill ya. That's why touts always take the moneyline. I think it might be better to play the moneyline, but put a little extra on the -1.5 or even -2.5. Good luck tho.
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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1 run games doesn't mean the favorite won by 1 run. Im positive it will be good results, but we shall see. So far this month the worst day was on the 2nd when 8 favorites won but 4 of them won by 1 run. Games the favorite lost doesn't really matter if it was a 1 run game. Their were also days were every game won by the favorite was by more than 1 run.

The biggest thing is not losing your ass when the chalks lose outright. By playing runlines you can reduce your bets and still win the same. I will also compute this stuff after the 2 weeks.

Touts always take the moneyline so they can have a better record. Most aren't tracking units and none of them are betting their own money. Of course they are going to give out the ML on a guaranteed pick because it has a better chance of winning, but it is not the most valuable play to the player.
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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Never big on taking home teams laying the RL.

I agree it sucks when they are up by 1 in the 9th and don't have to bat, but home teams should actually cover the runline more often due to playing at home. I will take a look at this also.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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For me, it is hard to win at ML's laying the -1.5 if the total is less than 9. The higher the total, the better chance of the ML hitting. I will take the dog and lay the -1.5 also for bigger odds.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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I agree it sucks when they are up by 1 in the 9th and don't have to bat, but home teams should actually cover the runline more often due to playing at home. I will take a look at this also.

Nothing worse than the home team up 2 in the 9th and give up a run for an out. Ouch.
 

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what is the % on one run games

what is the league wise % on games decided by one run? is there a list of the 2008 TEAM stats for one run games?

i think its about 27% of all games end in 1 run diff. I would be happier if it was minus ONE and not ONE and HALF. You should at least get your money back with a push.

but we dont , so i guess we need to know the stats. and make value decisions that way.

If you bet ON LINE or over the phone, its much easier to met the ML, here in Vegas, its easier to bet the RL, because you put up less cash. and bet more games. It's tough to lay out 170 to win 100., but at the end of many games i wish i had.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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Remember this when playing Braves games (heard on the Cubs network yesterday). Braves have lost their last 21 road games when decided by one run. So a low total and the Braves +RL may not be a bad play.
 

RX PROFESSIONAL
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if you are playing favorites-i would advise to always play the runline---i believe mathematically it makes sense
 

A Separate Reality
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if you are playing favorites-i would advise to always play the runline---i believe mathematically it makes sense

Don't think so. You are taking the worst of it,speaking in probability terms, that is why -1.5 runs is + money. Simply put when you lay the run line, have one way to win 2-0 or more runs while the other side taking the +1.5 can win the game straight up or with the extra 1.5 runs. Two ways to win to your one way to win. That is why they give you + money

You are bucking 2 to 1 odds against winning, when you lay the 1.5
 

Uno

Ban Teddy
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if you are playing favorites-i would advise to always play the runline---i believe mathematically it makes sense

please enlighten us with the math then.

don't speak of math without laying real numbers out.
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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Results after 2 Days

Favorites won by 1 run at a higher rate yesterday. 2 days worth of results don't mean shit anyway, but playing the ML does have a slight advantage right now. After 2 weeks we can start to trust the data as that will be close to 200 games. I have also added a 3rd category that will probably more closely relate to most bettors. The 3rd category will be risking X on the RL to win $100. This will reduce exposure and limit loses on days when a lot of dogs win. Just more stuff to track the best approach when betting on favorites. After 2 days the results are as follows.

ML Bets ROI 36%
RL Bets ROI 31%
RL Bets (Risking X to win $100) ROI 33%
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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June 14th Odds

6/14/08

Toronto –170 (Risk 170 to win 100)
RL +125 (Risk 170 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 80 to win 100)
Philadelphia –115 (Risk 115 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 115 to win 160)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
Detroit –125 (Risk 125 to win 100)
RL +165 (Risk 125 to win 205)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 61 to win 100)
Cincinnati –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +155 (Risk 135 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 65 to win 100)
Tampa Bay –160 (Risk 160 to win 100)
RL +130 (Risk 160 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 77 to win 100)
NY Yankees –125 (Risk 125 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 125 to win 175)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
Milwaukee –175 (Risk 175 to win 100)
RL +120 (Risk 175 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 83 to win 100)
Chicago WhiteSox –200 (Risk 200 to win 100)
RL +100 (Risk 200 to win 200)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 100 to win 100)
Cleveland –200 (Risk 200 to win 100)
RL +100 (Risk 200 to win 200)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 100 to win 100)
Baltimore –130 (Risk 130 to win 100)
RL +165 (Risk 130 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 61 to win 100)
NY Mets –165 (Risk 165 to win 100)
RL +130 (Risk 165 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 77 to win 100)
Arizona –180 (Risk 180 to win 100)
RL +115 (Risk 180 to win 205)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 87 to win 100)
LA Angels –170 (Risk 170 to win 100)
RL +125 (Risk 170 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 80 to win 100)
Oakland –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +125 (Risk 135 to win 170)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 80 to win 100)
Seattle –200 (Risk 200 to win 100)
RL +100 (Risk 200 to win 200)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 100 to win 100)
 

"Straight Cash Homie"
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Thanks Uno. I think it is well worth the time. I will do it for atleast 2 weeks to get what should be a pretty good sample size. Everyone that bets baseball can benefit from this and afterwords there will be no question what the best method of ATTACK is.
 

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I think it's important to look at team tendencies too. For instance, a team that has trouble scoring runs isn't going to cover as many RLs. Maybe look at the teams who cover the RL most often and taking a closer look at them??

For example, Toronto is 35-34 as of right now, and have only covered the -1.5 as a favorite 15 times. That's less than half their wins. So does it pay off to take the Jays on the runline?? I doubt it, and I never would.

So maybe only bet runlines, but also only bet teams with a high enough percentage of run line victories. Either way, GL and thanks for tracking this...
 

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