Three Things To Watch: Wednesday

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Mets struggling at the start

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: June 18, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY

1. Mets having problems after early innings

Contributing to the Mets' struggles -- and the firing Tuesday of manager Willie Randolph -- are the number of early leads New York has blown. Through Monday, the Mets had blown 21 leads, while coming from behind for only 12 wins. The nine-game difference between comeback wins and blown leads is third-worst in the majors. The teams ahead of the Mets in the NL East -- Florida and Philadelphia -- both have more come-from-behind wins than blown losses. The Mets' problems have come after the third inning. With a lead after three innings, they've won 63 percent of their games (22-13), well below the 75 percent league average. When the Mets have trailed after three, they have come back to win only 17 percent of the time (3-15), also below the league average (25 percent). If the Mets had performed at the MLB average after the third inning, they would have five more wins this season. The hitting drops off after the early innings. The New York lineup ranks in the top eight in the major stat categories during the first three innings, but falls to the bottom in the later innings: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets hitting by innings</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.272</td> <td>8</td> <td>.250</td> <td>25</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.437</td> <td>7</td> <td>.374</td> <td>28</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>OBP</td> <td>.343</td> <td>6</td> <td>.328</td> <td>19</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets' batting averages on fastballs and changeups rank in the middle of the league, but New York hitters have scuffled against breaking pitches, hitting only .212, which ranks the group 22nd in the majors. Opposing pitchers have exploited this vulnerability by throwing more breaking stuff as games progress: At the same time the offense starts to struggle, the Mets' pitching goes from good to average: <!-- begin table --> <td12></td12><table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets pitching comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.250</td> <td>8</td> <td>.255</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.355</td> <td>4</td> <td>.414</td> <td>17</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.187</td> <td>4</td> <td>.228</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct.</td> <td>22.7</td> <td>5</td> <td>19.7</td> <td>15</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->After the first time through the order, opposing hitters have been much more aggressive against first-pitch fastballs, not only putting more balls in play but also making harder contact in the later innings: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">First-pitch fastballs from Mets pitchers</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitch type</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>23.3</td> <td>27.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play swing pct.</td> <td>37.5</td> <td>47.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit swing pct.</td> <td>.355</td> <td>5.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.226</td> <td>.289</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.245</td> <td>.537</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets wrap up their series with the Angels on Wednesday against Jon Garland, who has been hittable both early (.280 BA against and .752 OPS over first three innings) as well as in the middle innings (.280 and .753 between the fourth and sixth innings). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Marcum

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Marcum taking rare approach

Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Marcum leads the American League with a 2.43 ERA (almost two runs better than his career ERA entering the season) and a 0.99 WHIP. He's also among the top 10 in strikeouts. Marcum does not have an overpowering fastball; it only averages about 87 mph. However, he has had more success with his heater this season because he has taken the rare approach of throwing more off-speed pitches than fastballs. Just how unusual is his approach? Of the 220 hurlers who have thrown the most pitches in the majors this season, only 13 have thrown more off-speed pitches than fastballs. • Only six pitchers have thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs than Marcum. • Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is the only full-time starting pitcher who has thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs. Clay Buchholz has thrown a greater percentage of non-fastballs, but he is in the minors right now. Justin Miller has thrown more, but he's a full-time reliever. Jorge Campillo, Carlos Villanueva and Cha Seung Baek are the only others to throw a slightly higher percentage of off-speed pitches than Marcum this season. Marcum is throwing 6 percent more changeups this season, which is probably making his heater more effective. It will be interesting to see whether Marcum continues this approach and whether opposing hitters begin sitting on his changeup, figuring they can catch up to his fastball even when they aren't looking for it. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Sheets

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Sheets is healthy and brewing wins in Milwaukee

Ben Sheets, when healthy, is a solid starting pitcher. The Milwaukee ace posted an ERA of 3.82 or better in each of the past four years, with a career 3.9 strikeout-walk ratio. However, because he pitched for the Brewers, his lifetime record was 73-74 before this year. He has also battled myriad injuries in recent seasons, and has not started more than 24 games in any of the past three years. In 2008, Sheets has only missed one turn in the rotation, and his stellar pitching has vaulted him into NL Cy Young award contention. The 29-year-old is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Batters are not making good contact against the two pitches Sheets uses 96 percent of the time. Opponents have a .192 well-hit average against his fastball (63 percent of total pitches), and a .127 well-hit average against his curve (33 percent). Sheets allowed no runs in three of his first four starts this season. After a rough stretch in which he allowed three or more runs in four straight starts, Sheets has three wins and a 1.96 ERA in his past five outings. He has held opposing hitters to a .233 overall average that drops to .136 with runners in scoring position: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Sheets with and without RISP in 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>RISP</td> <td>Without RISP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against fastball</td> <td>.088</td> <td>.280</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against curveball</td> <td>.188</td> <td>.223</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches in the zone</td> <td>48.4</td> <td>57.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of miss swings</td> <td>26.7</td> <td>18.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of at-bats</td> <td>24.2</td> <td>20.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Sheets has allowed just 23 percent of baserunners to score, much better than the 36 percent league average. With his ability to strand runners, Wednesday's matchup against the Blue Jays may favor Sheets. Toronto is hitting just .232 with RISP, the second-lowest in the AL. With two out and runners in scoring position, the Blue Jays' .195 batting average is the third-lowest in the majors.
 

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Daily Notes for Wednesday: Former A's teammates face off

By Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> June 18, 2008, 9:25 AM
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Maybe it's just me, but I like matchups like the game in Phoenix on Wednesday. Former No. 1 and No. 2 starters on the same team pitted against each other after one was shipped off so they could afford to re-sign the other. Dan Haren versus Joe Blanton will be the contest I make sure to catch.
Chase Headley also gets his first chance to really strut his stuff. He's expected to be recalled on Tuesday, but faces lefthander Andy Pettitte. Headley is hitting .258 with a .709 OPS versus lefties in Triple-A this season. Compare that to his .321 average and 1.017 OPS versus righties down in the minors. Darrell Rasner and his right arm make a much better opponent for Headley to make his mark.


Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Carl Crawford needs to be activated in all leagues. His suspension will be served out on Tuesday and he should be back in the lineup on Wednesday. ... With different interleague series on the docket now, we have some different teams losing and gaining a DH. Oddly, the regular DHs for the Red Sox (David Ortiz), Tigers (Gary Sheffield), Indians (Travis Hafner) and A's (Frank Thomas) are all on the DL anyway, so no one of shallow, mixed league significance is losing at-bats. The Royals may choose to play Miguel Olivo over John Buck at catcher to capitalize on Olivo's hot bat. Finally, Matt Stairs will find his way into the lineup at the expense of Brad Wilkerson or Kevin Mench. Stairs has a ridiculous 6-for-14 (.429) mark with four home runs versus Ben Sheets. ... Keep a close eye on Melvin Mora's status, as he loves to face Brian Moehler (6-for-6 lifetime). ... Be choosy with your Tampa Bay Rays, as only Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro have ever faced Carlos Zambrano. Big Z won't be able to use his bat to support himself this time, but he can certainly limit the abilities of some hitters (mainly righties). ... Don't be too hasty with Magglio Ordonez or Brandon Inge versus Barry Zito. Inge is 3-for-24 (.125) and Ordonez is 3-for-23 (.130) versus Zito. ... The Rockies feast on lefties, so make sure to have regulars like Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins in the lineup, but also go deeper to get Chris Iannetta and Ryan Spilborghs in your lineup as well. All four players I've mentioned have an OPS over 1.000 versus lefties and get to tee off on Aaron Laffey.
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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Dan Haren gets to face his former A's teammates for the first time.


Pitchers: It's Jake Peavy's first (and likely last) start at Yankee Stadium. There shouldn't be any concerns after seeing Peavy toss six shutout innings in his return from the DL. As a bonus, San Diego likely will let him fire more than the 72 pitches he tossed last time out and there is no concern about lifting him for a pinch-hitter if the game is close (DH rule). ... Although this is the point last season when Dan Haren was at his peak value (ERA worse than 4.00 in July, August and September), something tells me this outing against his former team will have some intangibles to it. Even with Oakland's history of shipping away starters in recent years, Haren still probably feels just a little slighted and will want to prove something to his former employers. Waiver-Wire pickups
Hitters: For bonus at-bats, the Astros, Padres, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Pirates, Mets and Marlins will be able to deploy a DH. Look for Houston to shift Lance Berkman into the DH role, giving Darin Erstad some bonus plate appearances. Tony Clark will continue to get regular at-bats for the Padres and is a decent deep-league option. Micah Hoffpauir will get extra at-bats for the Cubs at first base with Derrek Lee shifting into the DH role, but he should be someone to watch for scouting purposes only. Greg Norton should DH for the Braves against a righty. Dmitri Young and Aaron Boone should both get into the lineup thanks to the DH spot for the Nationals. The Pirates likely will shift things around to make sure Doug Mientkiewicz gets some at-bats against an old American League foe in Mark Buehrle. Newly arrived Trot Nixon may be the DH for the Mets, as he has 20 at-bats against Jon Garland in his career in the AL. Wes Helms might be a deep-league option for the Marlins; he has no at-bats versus R.A. Dickey but he has a home run in two at-bats versus Tim Wakefield, one of the only knuckleballers around. ... Sticking with the Dickey-Wakefield comparison, as few (if any) Marlins have faced Dickey, Jorge Cantu is a great corner option for your lineup against Dickey. He is 7-for-21 (.333) with four walks against Wakefield's knuckleball. ... Now starting regularly, Ben Francisco has a .346 average against lefties. He'll catch Jeff Francis on Wednesday. ... Not that Scott Hairston or Paul McAnulty were going to block Chase Headley from at-bats now that he is being called up, but with their injuries and a DH spot to fill all but guarantees Headley will get a start in this game.

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</td></tr></tbody></table> Pitchers: It'll still be closer by committee in Atlanta with Rafael Soriano out. If you are desperate for those saves, Manny Acosta and Blaine Boyer are probably the best bets to have active in your lineup. ... If you are going to try out a young righthander with a decent ceiling as a spot start, now is the time to roll out Ryan Tucker. The Marlins rookie has been mowing down batters in Double-A before his callup this season (1.41 ERA, 62 K's in 70 IP). The matchup with Seattle is particularly exciting because the Mariners still rank dead-last in OPS versus righties (.666). ... This might be your last chance to get a spot start out of Justin Masterson (as Daisuke Matsuzaka is healing up), but the rookie righty has been brilliant. His release point disguises the ball well and his slider and sinker cause trouble all around. The Phillies will be his toughest test yet, but after tossing a gem at Great American Ball Park in his last outing, I have no concerns. ... Bronson Arroyo looked positively brilliant in his most recent outing, and there were signs of a turnaround before he finally clicked. Look for another above-average outing against the Dodgers, who are currently third-last in OPS versus righties (.678). ... Jo-Jo Reyes was allowed to throw 109 pitches in his most recent outing, a sure sign that talk of limiting his pitch counts aren't panning out. The Rangers may be the best hitting club versus right-handers (.835 OPS), but plummet to 14th in the league versus lefties (.760). I like Reyes to handle the Texas lineup for at least a quality start and half-dozen strikeouts. ... A matchup with the White Sox might appear like something to exploit with Tom Gorzelanny, as the AL Chicago team rates near the bottom of the league in hitting against lefties. Don't be so sure though, as the Nationals rate even lower against lefties and still gave Gorzelanny a hard time in his last outing. ... It was nice to see Kevin Slowey bounce back from his worst start of the season, but the Washington Nationals aren't going to roll over for him here. The Nats have an .853 OPS over the previous seven days and may hand Slowey a tough outing. ... If you need a win, look no further than Armando Galarraga. I mean, that is what the Tigers do, right? His matchup with San Francisco actually looks good, though, as the Giants are much tougher on lefties. ... Darrell Rasner has allowed nine, nine and eight hits in his previous three outings. Up against Jake Peavy, there isn't much hope for a win either, so don't gamble on Rasner.
 

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