Mets struggling at the start
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: June 18, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
1. Mets having problems after early innings
Contributing to the Mets' struggles -- and the firing Tuesday of manager Willie Randolph -- are the number of early leads New York has blown. Through Monday, the Mets had blown 21 leads, while coming from behind for only 12 wins. The nine-game difference between comeback wins and blown leads is third-worst in the majors. The teams ahead of the Mets in the NL East -- Florida and Philadelphia -- both have more come-from-behind wins than blown losses. The Mets' problems have come after the third inning. With a lead after three innings, they've won 63 percent of their games (22-13), well below the 75 percent league average. When the Mets have trailed after three, they have come back to win only 17 percent of the time (3-15), also below the league average (25 percent). If the Mets had performed at the MLB average after the third inning, they would have five more wins this season. The hitting drops off after the early innings. The New York lineup ranks in the top eight in the major stat categories during the first three innings, but falls to the bottom in the later innings: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets hitting by innings</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.272</td> <td>8</td> <td>.250</td> <td>25</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.437</td> <td>7</td> <td>.374</td> <td>28</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>OBP</td> <td>.343</td> <td>6</td> <td>.328</td> <td>19</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets' batting averages on fastballs and changeups rank in the middle of the league, but New York hitters have scuffled against breaking pitches, hitting only .212, which ranks the group 22nd in the majors. Opposing pitchers have exploited this vulnerability by throwing more breaking stuff as games progress: At the same time the offense starts to struggle, the Mets' pitching goes from good to average: <!-- begin table --> <td12></td12><table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets pitching comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.250</td> <td>8</td> <td>.255</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.355</td> <td>4</td> <td>.414</td> <td>17</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.187</td> <td>4</td> <td>.228</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct.</td> <td>22.7</td> <td>5</td> <td>19.7</td> <td>15</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->After the first time through the order, opposing hitters have been much more aggressive against first-pitch fastballs, not only putting more balls in play but also making harder contact in the later innings: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">First-pitch fastballs from Mets pitchers</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitch type</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>23.3</td> <td>27.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play swing pct.</td> <td>37.5</td> <td>47.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit swing pct.</td> <td>.355</td> <td>5.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.226</td> <td>.289</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.245</td> <td>.537</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets wrap up their series with the Angels on Wednesday against Jon Garland, who has been hittable both early (.280 BA against and .752 OPS over first three innings) as well as in the middle innings (.280 and .753 between the fourth and sixth innings). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Marcum
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Marcum taking rare approach
Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Marcum leads the American League with a 2.43 ERA (almost two runs better than his career ERA entering the season) and a 0.99 WHIP. He's also among the top 10 in strikeouts. Marcum does not have an overpowering fastball; it only averages about 87 mph. However, he has had more success with his heater this season because he has taken the rare approach of throwing more off-speed pitches than fastballs. Just how unusual is his approach? Of the 220 hurlers who have thrown the most pitches in the majors this season, only 13 have thrown more off-speed pitches than fastballs. • Only six pitchers have thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs than Marcum. • Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is the only full-time starting pitcher who has thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs. Clay Buchholz has thrown a greater percentage of non-fastballs, but he is in the minors right now. Justin Miller has thrown more, but he's a full-time reliever. Jorge Campillo, Carlos Villanueva and Cha Seung Baek are the only others to throw a slightly higher percentage of off-speed pitches than Marcum this season. Marcum is throwing 6 percent more changeups this season, which is probably making his heater more effective. It will be interesting to see whether Marcum continues this approach and whether opposing hitters begin sitting on his changeup, figuring they can catch up to his fastball even when they aren't looking for it. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Sheets
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Sheets is healthy and brewing wins in Milwaukee
Ben Sheets, when healthy, is a solid starting pitcher. The Milwaukee ace posted an ERA of 3.82 or better in each of the past four years, with a career 3.9 strikeout-walk ratio. However, because he pitched for the Brewers, his lifetime record was 73-74 before this year. He has also battled myriad injuries in recent seasons, and has not started more than 24 games in any of the past three years. In 2008, Sheets has only missed one turn in the rotation, and his stellar pitching has vaulted him into NL Cy Young award contention. The 29-year-old is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Batters are not making good contact against the two pitches Sheets uses 96 percent of the time. Opponents have a .192 well-hit average against his fastball (63 percent of total pitches), and a .127 well-hit average against his curve (33 percent). Sheets allowed no runs in three of his first four starts this season. After a rough stretch in which he allowed three or more runs in four straight starts, Sheets has three wins and a 1.96 ERA in his past five outings. He has held opposing hitters to a .233 overall average that drops to .136 with runners in scoring position: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Sheets with and without RISP in 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>RISP</td> <td>Without RISP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against fastball</td> <td>.088</td> <td>.280</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against curveball</td> <td>.188</td> <td>.223</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches in the zone</td> <td>48.4</td> <td>57.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of miss swings</td> <td>26.7</td> <td>18.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of at-bats</td> <td>24.2</td> <td>20.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Sheets has allowed just 23 percent of baserunners to score, much better than the 36 percent league average. With his ability to strand runners, Wednesday's matchup against the Blue Jays may favor Sheets. Toronto is hitting just .232 with RISP, the second-lowest in the AL. With two out and runners in scoring position, the Blue Jays' .195 batting average is the third-lowest in the majors.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: June 18, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
1. Mets having problems after early innings
Contributing to the Mets' struggles -- and the firing Tuesday of manager Willie Randolph -- are the number of early leads New York has blown. Through Monday, the Mets had blown 21 leads, while coming from behind for only 12 wins. The nine-game difference between comeback wins and blown leads is third-worst in the majors. The teams ahead of the Mets in the NL East -- Florida and Philadelphia -- both have more come-from-behind wins than blown losses. The Mets' problems have come after the third inning. With a lead after three innings, they've won 63 percent of their games (22-13), well below the 75 percent league average. When the Mets have trailed after three, they have come back to win only 17 percent of the time (3-15), also below the league average (25 percent). If the Mets had performed at the MLB average after the third inning, they would have five more wins this season. The hitting drops off after the early innings. The New York lineup ranks in the top eight in the major stat categories during the first three innings, but falls to the bottom in the later innings: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets hitting by innings</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.272</td> <td>8</td> <td>.250</td> <td>25</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.437</td> <td>7</td> <td>.374</td> <td>28</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>OBP</td> <td>.343</td> <td>6</td> <td>.328</td> <td>19</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets' batting averages on fastballs and changeups rank in the middle of the league, but New York hitters have scuffled against breaking pitches, hitting only .212, which ranks the group 22nd in the majors. Opposing pitchers have exploited this vulnerability by throwing more breaking stuff as games progress: At the same time the offense starts to struggle, the Mets' pitching goes from good to average: <!-- begin table --> <td12></td12><table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mets pitching comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>
</td> <td>From fourth on</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> <td>Mets</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.250</td> <td>8</td> <td>.255</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.355</td> <td>4</td> <td>.414</td> <td>17</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.187</td> <td>4</td> <td>.228</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct.</td> <td>22.7</td> <td>5</td> <td>19.7</td> <td>15</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->After the first time through the order, opposing hitters have been much more aggressive against first-pitch fastballs, not only putting more balls in play but also making harder contact in the later innings: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">First-pitch fastballs from Mets pitchers</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitch type</td> <td>Innings 1-3</td> <td>From the fourth on</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>23.3</td> <td>27.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play swing pct.</td> <td>37.5</td> <td>47.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit swing pct.</td> <td>.355</td> <td>5.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.226</td> <td>.289</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.245</td> <td>.537</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Mets wrap up their series with the Angels on Wednesday against Jon Garland, who has been hittable both early (.280 BA against and .752 OPS over first three innings) as well as in the middle innings (.280 and .753 between the fourth and sixth innings). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Marcum taking rare approach
Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Marcum leads the American League with a 2.43 ERA (almost two runs better than his career ERA entering the season) and a 0.99 WHIP. He's also among the top 10 in strikeouts. Marcum does not have an overpowering fastball; it only averages about 87 mph. However, he has had more success with his heater this season because he has taken the rare approach of throwing more off-speed pitches than fastballs. Just how unusual is his approach? Of the 220 hurlers who have thrown the most pitches in the majors this season, only 13 have thrown more off-speed pitches than fastballs. • Only six pitchers have thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs than Marcum. • Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is the only full-time starting pitcher who has thrown a higher percentage of non-fastballs. Clay Buchholz has thrown a greater percentage of non-fastballs, but he is in the minors right now. Justin Miller has thrown more, but he's a full-time reliever. Jorge Campillo, Carlos Villanueva and Cha Seung Baek are the only others to throw a slightly higher percentage of off-speed pitches than Marcum this season. Marcum is throwing 6 percent more changeups this season, which is probably making his heater more effective. It will be interesting to see whether Marcum continues this approach and whether opposing hitters begin sitting on his changeup, figuring they can catch up to his fastball even when they aren't looking for it. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Sheets is healthy and brewing wins in Milwaukee
Ben Sheets, when healthy, is a solid starting pitcher. The Milwaukee ace posted an ERA of 3.82 or better in each of the past four years, with a career 3.9 strikeout-walk ratio. However, because he pitched for the Brewers, his lifetime record was 73-74 before this year. He has also battled myriad injuries in recent seasons, and has not started more than 24 games in any of the past three years. In 2008, Sheets has only missed one turn in the rotation, and his stellar pitching has vaulted him into NL Cy Young award contention. The 29-year-old is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Batters are not making good contact against the two pitches Sheets uses 96 percent of the time. Opponents have a .192 well-hit average against his fastball (63 percent of total pitches), and a .127 well-hit average against his curve (33 percent). Sheets allowed no runs in three of his first four starts this season. After a rough stretch in which he allowed three or more runs in four straight starts, Sheets has three wins and a 1.96 ERA in his past five outings. He has held opposing hitters to a .233 overall average that drops to .136 with runners in scoring position: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Sheets with and without RISP in 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>RISP</td> <td>Without RISP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against fastball</td> <td>.088</td> <td>.280</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against curveball</td> <td>.188</td> <td>.223</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches in the zone</td> <td>48.4</td> <td>57.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of miss swings</td> <td>26.7</td> <td>18.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of at-bats</td> <td>24.2</td> <td>20.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Sheets has allowed just 23 percent of baserunners to score, much better than the 36 percent league average. With his ability to strand runners, Wednesday's matchup against the Blue Jays may favor Sheets. Toronto is hitting just .232 with RISP, the second-lowest in the AL. With two out and runners in scoring position, the Blue Jays' .195 batting average is the third-lowest in the majors.