BillHill999's Afternoon Play of the Day

L.A. Dodgers v. Cinncinnatti Reds Under 9 Total Runs
3 Units

Yesterdays posted play.
Arizona under 4 team runs.
Cashed that ticket as the D-Back bats did not show up in an 11-1 loss after 'shooting their load' on Tuesday.
Net profit +3*

Aaron Harang toes the rubber today for the Reds in this afternoon matinee.
Been following Harang's career since he came out of SD State, and when on, his stuff is as good as any NL elite starter.
After a shaky start, Harang appears to be back in form that earned him back to back 16 victory seasons.
Harang is coming off an outstanding start against the Red Sox in an impressive 3-1 win, going 7 full innings, yielding 4 hits, walking none,striking out seven.
Dodger offense is mediocre at best, middle of bottom of the pack in all vital statistics.
I'm expecting a similar effort that Harang threw against the Red Sox here, I can't see the Dodgers touching him for more than 2 runs.

On the other side of the mound, Dodgers throw a relative unknown in lefty
Eric Stults.
Generally a reliever Stults is making his 2008 debut, the Reds have never seen him and I am expecting Stults to keep the Reds bats at bay the first time around, before turning it over to the Dodger bullpen.
I'm looking at a 3-1 type game after 5 innings, and a 5-2 type conclusion.

In addition these trends point to an under here as well.

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• <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 Thursday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-1 in Dodgers last 10 games following a win. <LI class=morehot>Under is 12-2 in Dodgers last 14 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 on grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 during game 3 of a series. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 37-17-2 in Dodgers last 56 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.

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<TABLE class=data id=ctl00_ctl00_tblTrendsHomeOU cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>Cincinnati</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>

• <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-2-1 in Reds last 12 Thursday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-2 in Reds last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Reds last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Reds last 6 home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Reds last 6 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Reds last 6 on grass. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3-2 in Reds last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Over is 5-2-1 in Reds last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3 in Reds last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Harangs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-1-1 in Harangs last 10 home starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-1 in Harangs last 9 starts as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Harangs last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Harangs last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 9-3-1 in Harangs last 13 Thursday starts. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-1 in Harangs last 9 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Over is 8-3 in Harangs last 11 starts with 5 days of rest. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Harangs last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 13-5-1 in Harangs last 19 starts overall. <LI class=more>Under is 13-5-1 in Harangs last 19 starts on grass. <LI class=more>Over is 5-2-1 in Harangs last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 12-5-1 in Harangs last 18 starts as a favorite.
• Under is 11-5 in Harangs last 16 starts vs. National League West.

I'll take the under 9 in this game for 3 units please.
Thank you for taking the time to read this, and as per usual, may all your tickets get cashed.
:toast:

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thanks for the pick ........gonna tail today ...
break up the day a bit ! .........any thoughts on the NYY.....
Sadly the books put up a 2-1 on a 1-2 pitcher ....thoughts

douglas said:

thanks for the pick ........gonna tail today ...
break up the day a bit ! .........any thoughts on the NYY.....
Sadly the books put up a 2-1 on a 1-2 pitcher ....thoughts

Click to expand...

Joba on run line or no play.
SD offense is impotent, Joba's stuff is electric, on a 105 pitch count this afternoon, can't recommend laying -230 on any game in any situation, can't recommend SD in this spot, so it's NYY - 1 1/2 runs laying 105 to win 100 or no play at all.

Like the cinci play both teams struggling on offense. You could not be more right on the NYY thoughts. Going to follow on cinci u

Good pick, best of luck to ya.