Three Things To Watch: Sunday

Fukudome's patience rubbing off with Cubs

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: June 22, 2008

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY

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Fukudome

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) -->1. Has Fukudome's patience influenced other Cubs hitters?

Kosuke Fukudome was known for his plate discipline from his career .397 on-base percentage in Japan, and his .405 OBP this season with the Cubs is seventh in the National League through Saturday. But Fukudome is not the only Cubs hitter with a stellar on-base percentage. Aramis Ramirez (.401), Ryan Theriot (.387) and Mark DeRosa (.378) also rank in the NL top 20 and have improved since last season. The Cubs' .358 OBP is the best in the majors and a big improvement over 2007's subpar .333 team OBP. The patient Fukudome rarely chases bad pitches and swings on just 62 percent of pitches in the strike zone, well below the 67 percent league average. Chicago's high OBP suggests that other hitters in the order have emulated his approach, but not all Cubs have been inspired by Fukudome's plate discipline. Hitters who have seen their OBP improve are all swinging less and seeing more pitches per plate appearance this season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Higher 2008 OBP</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>HITTER</td> <td>'07 SWING%</td> <td>'07 P/PA</td> <td>'08 SWING%</td> <td>'08 P/PA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>DeRosa</td> <td>45.4</td> <td>4.0</td> <td>41.3</td> <td>3.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Ramirez</td> <td>50.0</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>46.2</td> <td>4.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Theriot</td> <td>40.1</td> <td>3.6</td> <td>37.4</td> <td>3.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The two regulars from last year with lower OBPs in 2008 have gone in the opposite direction and swung at more pitches: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Lower 2008 OBP</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>HITTER</td> <td>'07 SWING%</td> <td>'07 P/PA</td> <td>'08 SWING%</td> <td>'08 P/PA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Lee</td> <td>40.3</td> <td>4.0</td> <td>41.6</td> <td>3.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Soriano</td> <td>58.1</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>52.1</td> <td>3.5</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Both the aggressive and patient approaches could work for the Cubs tonight against White Sox starter Javier Vazquez on ESPN "Sunday Night Baseball." Vazquez throws strikes in early counts (0-0, 0-1 and 1-0) and opponents have .350 batting and .567 slugging averages in these counts, both above average. Vazquez also has allowed a .386 batting average and .636 slugging percentage in hitter's counts, again above league averages. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Parra

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Fastball strikes make Parra's changeup nastier

After a rocky start in which he had a 5.79 ERA and hadn't thrown more than 5 1/3 innings during his first seven starts, Brewers rookie Manny Parra has settled into a bit of a groove. The young lefty hasn't lost since May 3 and rides a string of four straight victories heading into Sunday's dustup with the Orioles. Parra features a three-pitch repertoire, with a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a solid curve, and a very good changeup. He's been increasingly successful this season as he's gained control of his fastball. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Opponents vs. Parra's fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>APRIL</td> <td>MAY</td> <td>JUNE</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike percentage</td> <td>55.1</td> <td>61.1</td> <td>64.1</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BB pct. of PAs ending on fastballs</td> <td>16.1</td> <td>16.9</td> <td>12.8</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Brewers' youngster has done a much better job finding the strike zone with his heater, but hitters have gotten good wood on 15 percent of fastball swings against Parra, well above the 12 percent league average for lefties. With his fastball getting knocked all over the yard, how has Parra shaved 1.64 runs off his ERA since early May? Partly, his ability to throw his fastball for strikes has made Parra's changeup far more effective: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Opponents vs. Parra's changeup</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>APRIL</td> <td>MAY</td> <td>JUNE</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Swing percentage</td> <td>47.7</td> <td>51.6</td> <td>62.8</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of ABs ending on changeups</td> <td>11.1</td> <td>19.2</td> <td>37.0</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.222</td> <td>.192</td> <td>.074</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- end table -->
Parra is getting batters to swing at his changeup more frequently and miss more often. So far in June, batters have swung at 49 percent of his changeups outside of the zone, one of the highest off-speed chase percentages among starters. Watch today to see if Parra can pull the string on the Orioles, a team that is fourth in the AL hitting against changeups (.278 BA). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Duchscherer

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Duchscherer's finesse approach working well

Justin Duchscherer of the Oakland Athletics enters Sunday with the lowest ERA among AL pitchers who have thrown 65-plus innings. What makes Duchscherer's success so impressive is his less-than-impressive fastball, which registers around 86 mph consistently. Most soft-tossing right-handed pitchers are susceptible to being hit hard no matter where they locate their fastball to left-handed batters. Duchscherer, unlike other low-voltage righties, is absolutely thriving when he keeps the ball down to lefties. Here is a quick comparison with other right-handers who average 87 mph or lower with their fastball: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Slugging Percentage Against -- fastballs vs. lefties in 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>DUCHSCHERER</td> <td>OTHER SOFT-TOSSING RHP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>.500</td> <td>.436</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle</td> <td>.357</td> <td>.539</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Down</td> <td>.097</td> <td>.403</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> A closer look reveals that the A's right-hander simply paints the down-and-away part of the plate. The .097 slugging percentage against his low fastballs to lefties breaks down this way: three singles in 31 at-bats, 21 of those at-bats ending with pitches down and away. Another issue pitchers like Duchscherer are having is keeping right-handed batters in the ballpark. Fellow soft-tossing righties are surrendering a home run every 33.4 at-bats against right-handed batters while Duchscherer has only given up one home run in 110 at-bats against right-handers.
Duchscherer does not throw a changeup to right-handed batters. Instead, he relies on two excellent breaking pitches (slider and curve), and he throws a lot of them. Here is how the at-bat ending pitches to right-handed batters break down for the A's righty compared to others who have similar fastball velocities: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Pitch usage (home run rate per AB) vs. right-handed batters</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>DUCHSCHERER</td> <td>OTHER SOFT-TOSSING RHP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Fastball</td> <td>37.0 percent
(1 HR in 40 ABs)</td> <td>51.8 percent
(1 HR every 43.3 ABs)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Breaking Ball</td> <td>63.0 percent
(0 HR in 70 ABs)</td> <td>29.2 percent
(1 HR every 29.4 ABs)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Changeup</td> <td>n/a</td> <td>19.0 percent
(1 HR every 23.9 ABs)</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Duchscherer will take the mound Sunday against the Florida Marlins, who lead the majors in slugging percentage against right-handed curves and sliders.

Daily Notes for Sunday: Webb tries to rebound

By Adam Madison
ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> June 21, 2008, 5:20 PM

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline --> Brandon Webb is coming off his worst start of the season: a seven-run, 3 1/3 inning blowup that saw him allow two home runs in one game for the first time since May 16th of last season. His second shot at win No. 12 should be more successful because he faces the light-hitting Twins, and especially because the opposing pitcher is only recently coming off five straight starts in which he's allowed five-plus runs.
Justin Verlander is another ace trying to find his mojo. He has just three wins on the season, but interleague play should be the answer because the Padres -- and the rest of the NL West -- are among the league's weakest offensive teams.
But the day's premier interleague matchup is the Sunday night affair between the White Sox and Cubs; weather permitting, two high-strikeout pitchers face off against two offenses that rank third (Cubs) and fifth (White Sox) in OPS, respectively.

Out
Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates (concussion)
Xavier Nady, OF, Pirates (shoulder)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers (toe)
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox (hand)
Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins (personal)
Jim Edmonds, OF, Cubs (foot)
Brandon Inge, 3B, Tigers (oblique)
Reed Johnson, OF, Cubs (back)
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres (back)
Gerald Laird, C, Rangers (hamstring)
Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Wait to see Milton Bradley suit up Saturday before feeling comfortable starting him without the DH. He is available to pinch-hit, but considering Bradley's fragility, you can't play it too safe. … With eight home runs in June, Marcus Thames now has 11 home runs in his past 89 at-bats, explaining the increase in ownership. While Thames isn't likely to stay hot for too long, he does face a fly-ball pitcher who also happens to be a lefty, normally his most profitable matchup. … Jeremy Hermida is in the midst of an eight-game hitting streak, with four extra base-hits during that stretch. He's still sitting on a mediocre season line -- a .420 slugging percentage for a corner outfielder is unacceptable -- but I've long been a fan of Hermida, and he also has a prime spot in the lineup, hitting second behind Hanley Ramirez.
Pitchers: Johnny Cueto has allowed 18 home runs on the season -- six every month so far -- and his strikeout rate has decreased with each successive month while his walk rate has increased. If you're allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings, you probably shouldn't be in the majors; keep Cueto far away from the dangerous Yankees. … With at least four runs allowed in three of his past four starts, Jered Weaver has had his problems recently. In that time span, he's allowed five home runs with a 6.34 ERA despite a soft schedule. Be wary when he faces the Phillies on the road. … Jon Lester has been downright dominant in his past three starts: 20 1/3 innings, a 1.34 ERA and 13 strikeouts against just two walks. Going further back, Lester hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in 10 starts. Just 24, Lester may be taking a step forward in his game, or he might just be on a hot streak. Either way, he's looking like a must-start. … With two of the Pirates' best hitters out, toss in the pitcher and you're looking at just two threats in the Pirates lineup for Dustin McGowan: Jason Bay and Nate McLouth. The Pirates have never faced McGowan, either, and that lack of familiarity is usually a plus in the pitcher's favor. He should rebound nicely from his last start, a poor outing (4 ER in 4 IP) versus the Brewers. … Ryan Dempster has an interesting matchup against the white-hot White Sox, whose .922 June OPS is by far the best mark of any team. Dempster himself is a surprising sixth in the majors in ERA and tied for 20th in strikeouts, and he will be facing a short-handed Sox squad with Paul Konerko on the disabled list and Jim Thome likely only available for pinch-hit duty due to the lack of a DH. Dempster has been the beneficiary of a woefully soft schedule, and it's a good idea to see how Dempster does against a legitimate offense before feeling comfortable; not many 31-year-olds have career years, after all.
Waiver-Wire pickups
Hitters: Eric Hinske has bounced back from a tough May (.205 BA, .654 OPS) with a decent June (.289 and .854), and more importantly, he still has an OPS north of .900, with 11 home runs and five stolen bases to boot against righties this season. It's those stolen bases that give him that extra edge; the most recent time Hinske had double-digit steals was four years ago. … Jason Kubel has turned himself into a solid option against righties: He's now up to 10 home runs against righties, and is hitting .340 in June with an 7-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio to boot. Kubel's power is for real, and while he's hitting -- he's on a five-game hitting streak currently -- he's a valuable asset still available in over 90 percent of leagues.
Pitchers: Because he's allowed a combined two runs in 11 innings -- including 15 strikeouts --- versus the Diamondbacks and Nationals recently, you want to believe Ian Snell can salvage his season. But he promptly regressed and was torched by the White Sox for seven runs in four innings, including six walks and zero strikeouts. Until the walk rate drops -- nearly five per nine innings -- Snell's not going to find success, and the 29 percent who still do own Snell should free themselves of the burden. … For a pitcher with a string of six straight quality starts -- and a 2.31 ERA in that span -- before getting touched up against the Yankees, you would think Randy Wolf would get a little more love. A high-strikeout pitcher pitching half of his games in Petco Park is a spot-starter extraordinaire, and predictably, Wolf has a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at Petco. Sunday's opponent, the Tigers, isn't the greatest matchup, but the numbers speak for themselves, and the strikeouts always add a welcome margin for error.
Weather concerns
Weather could impact a fair bit of baseball, as up to six games are at risk for some precipitation. There's a 40 to 50 percent chance of storms in New York, potentially threatening the Reds-Yankees affair. Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago have the same risk of rain as well. … Pittsburgh has a 30 percent chance of rain, while Boston ranges from 30 to 50 percent, although the game should get completed because the worst of it isn't expected until the evening. … Astros-Rays, Orioles-Brewers and Diamondbacks-Twins are the day's weatherproof games.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.

Good stuff

Good stuff, think I will jump on AZ