Three Things To Watch: Wednesday

BadCo · Jun 25, 2008

Halladay's curve crossing up hitters

Updated: June 25, 2008

Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY

Halladay

 1. Halladay's incomparable hook

Few pitchers rely on their curveball more than Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, and nobody is having more success with the pitch this season. The table below lists the eight pitchers who have thrown the most curves this season, and the best numbers belong to Halladay:  <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="7">Top curveball pitchers</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitcher</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>SLG against</td> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>In-play pct. of swings</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>K pct. of ABs</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Roy Halladay</td> <td>.139</td> <td>.185</td> <td>.056</td> <td>29.8</td> <td>43.5</td> <td>53.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>A.J. Burnett</td> <td>.163</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.130</td> <td>32.8</td> <td>43.1</td> <td>51.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddnrow" valign="top"> <td>Ricky Nolasco</td> <td>.183</td> <td>.269</td> <td>.108</td> <td>46.8</td> <td>20.9</td> <td>30.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Ben Sheets</td> <td>.210</td> <td>.364</td> <td>.126</td> <td>41.28</td> <td>28.8</td> <td>35.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Erik Bedard</td> <td>.224</td> <td>.294</td> <td>.165</td> <td>37.4</td> <td>28.1</td> <td>25.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Mike Mussina</td> <td>.239</td> <td>.422</td> <td>.202</td> <td>58.1</td> <td>12.5</td> <td>15.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Bronson Arroyo</td> <td>.270</td> <td>.551</td> <td>.180</td> <td>44.5</td> <td>25.8</td> <td>25.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Josh Beckett</td> <td>.284</td> <td>.537</td> <td>.164</td> <td>41.8</td> <td>28.6</td> <td>36.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  By every measure, Halladay has the best curveball. Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 200 curves this season, Halladay ranks in the top four in each category and leads the league in miss percentage and strikeout percentage. Halladay has always had a good curve, but rarely one this good. It's no surprise then that he is having his best season since 2003, when he took the AL Cy Young award. The Reds, Halladay's opponent Wednesday, have missed 31 percent of swings at curves this season, third-worst in the majors.

DeJesus

 2. DeJesus hitting the first pitch hard

David DeJesus has been a bright spot for Kansas City this season after hitting a disappointing .260 last season. The center fielder is hitting .346 in June and has three home runs during his current 10-game hitting streak. DeJesus has feasted on the first pitch this season. His .625 batting average (15-for-24) against first pitches is second-best in the majors. In June, he's a perfect 6-for-6 on first pitches with three home runs and a double.  <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="6">DeJesus vs. first pitch</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Year</td> <td>BA</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>Pct. in zone</td> <td>Swing pct.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>.311</td> <td>.297</td> <td>57.1</td> <td>22.3</td> <td>7.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>.625</td> <td>.458</td> <td>48.9</td> <td>16.0</td> <td>5.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  DeJesus, a fastball hitter, has steadily improved against off-speed pitches. He doesn't miss as often and is making harder contact:  <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">DeJesus vs. off-speed pitches through Monday</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Month</td> <td>BA</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>March/April</td> <td>.154</td> <td>.077</td> <td>27.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May</td> <td>.184</td> <td>.158</td> <td>18.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June</td> <td>.321</td> <td>.250</td> <td>7.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Cook

 3. Aaron Cookin' in Colorado

With the Rockies in the NL West cellar, it's easy to overlook the season Aaron Cook is having. The righty is 10-4 with a 3.57 ERA. A ground ball pitcher on a ground ball staff, Cook's 49 percent in-play rate on swings is better than the 43 percent league average. He depends on hitters making weak contact on his sinker and slider to generate lots of ground ball outs. Cook's 16 starts this season have been equally divided between catchers Chris Iannetta and Yorvit Torrealba. His stats are almost identical with each catcher -- well, except for the important ones (BA against and ERA):  <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="6">Cook by catcher</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Catcher</td> <td>Games</td> <td>PA</td> <td>Pct. in zone</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>ERA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Iannetta</td> <td>8</td> <td>229</td> <td>50.6</td> <td>.291</td> <td>3.93</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Torrealba</td> <td>8</td> <td>228</td> <td>50.5</td> <td>.264</td> <td>3.21</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  In 2008, hitters have a .267 well-hit average against Cook on pitches in the strike zone, a number higher than the league average. He's posted great results, however, when he slightly misses the zone. We consider the area just off the corners and knees as "good misses" for pitchers. Cook throws a higher percentage of "good misses" and fewer balls far out of the zone when Torrealba catches.  <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Pitch location pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Catcher</td> <td>Good misses</td> <td>Non-competitive misses</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Iannetta</td> <td>17.5</td> <td>32.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Torrealba</td> <td>24.0</td> <td>25.6</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  Although Cook improves with Torrealba, the net outcome still favors Iannetta. Cook's record is 6-1 with Iannetta, compared to 4-3 with Torrealba. Iannetta is the better hitter, and the Rockies score more runs for Cook with him in the order (5.6 runs per game) than with Torrealba (4.5 runs).

BadCo · Jun 25, 2008

Daily Notes for Wednesday: Zito, Harang hope to avoid another loss

By Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)



  June 24, 2008, 1:31 PM

Unlike Friday when three 10-game winners took the mound on the same day, on Wednesday a 10-game winner and two 10-game losers will pitch. Aaron Cook of the Rockies got roughed up while going for win No. 11, but he still pitched seven innings despite giving up five runs in the second. Win No. 11 may come against the hapless Royals offense.
Conversely, the Reds' Aaron Harang seeks to avoid loss No. 11 as he takes his 3-10 record to the hill against the Blue Jays.
Then there is Barry Zito, who has 11 losses on the season. But I think Zito has as good a chance as any of the three pitchers mentioned to put one in the win column.

Out
Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners (back)
Sean Casey, 1B, Red Sox (suspension)
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B, Royals (back)
Cesar Izturis, SS, Cardinals (hamstring)
Gerald Laird, C, Rangers (hamstring)
Brian Schneider, C, Mets (hand)

Day-to-day
Alfredo Amezaga, OF, Marlins (groin)
Daric Barton, 1B, A's (hamstring)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners (finger)
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (quadriceps)
Ryan Doumit, C/OF, Pirates (concussion)
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds (back)
Yunel Escobar, 2B/SS/3B, Braves (hip)
Brian Giles, OF, Padres (hamstring)
Maicer Izturis, 2B/SS/3B, Angels (hamstring)
Reed Johnson, OF, Cubs (back)
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves (quadriceps)
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres (back)
John Maine, SP, Mets (blister)
Brandon Morrow, RP, Mariners (back)
Xavier Nady, OF, Pirates (shoulder)
Gary Sheffield, DH, Tigers (oblique)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox (eye)

Start 'em, sit 'em

Cliff Welch/Icon SMI
Don't expect much of Jim Thome with the DH not in play.

Hitters: Against righty Tim Redding, Garret Anderson likely will start instead of Gary Matthews Jr. as the Angels lose a DH. … Kevin Kouzmanoff hopes to be back in the Padres' lineup Tuesday. It's noteworthy because after his return, rookie Chase Headley can start earning his outfield eligibility to go with third base. … Thanks to interleague play, Arizona once again will get to deploy Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson all in the same game. … Jim Thome won't take the field as the White Sox lose the DH spot in Los Angeles. … Cliff Floyd probably will ride the pine as Tampa Bay loses its DH in Miami. … Adrian Beltre was back in the lineup for the Mariners on Monday. Though he is much more dangerous against lefties than righties, don't feel forced to start him against John Maine. … Edwin Encarnacion doesn't expect to go on the DL but may be limited because he has a back injury and is headed to the artificial turf at Rogers Centre. Thanks to the bonus DH spot in the lineup, Encarnacion may still get some at-bats for the Reds. … Yunel Escobar was in the lineup Monday after missing most of the weekend, so he should be good to go by Wednesday. … Chipper Jones is still working his way back into the lineup, but he's still pinch-hitting as his quad heals. You may be able to find a better option in shallow leagues until Jones is ready to play full time. But if he's ready to go Wednesday, get him in the lineup, because he is 7-for-10 against Jeff Suppan. … It's a tough call as to whether the Yankees will go with a defense-first approach by keeping Melky Cabrera in the lineup with no DH position in Pittsburgh; Cabrera is a .218 hitter against southpaws. If not, Hideki Matsui would push Johnny Damon into center. … DH Aubrey Huff's scorching bat (.450, four home runs in the past week) will find a way into the lineup somehow, even though the Orioles will play in an NL park. … The Rangers have an easy decision with the loss of a DH; Milton Bradley is still nursing a sore quad. … Facing a lefty with a DH position in hand, Philadelphia likely will use Pedro Feliz and Greg Dobbs at DH and third base, as well as Jayson Werth in right field. Geoff Jenkins and his .118 average against southpaws won't get much consideration. … Have all your Cubs active, as they get to tee off against a pitcher with their favorite dexterity. Lefty Brian Burres may have trouble with the Cubs' lineup and their combined .826 OPS against southpaws. … Watch Gary Sheffield's status, as he is getting closer to a return from his rehab assignment.

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Joba Chamberlain is still looking for his first win as a starter.

Pitchers: Joba Chamberlain catches a weak-hitting Pirates offense that has a .611 OPS this past week, mostly with Ryan Doumit and Xavier Nady out of the lineup. Look for Chamberlain to give you his best outing of the season. … Although Brandon Morrow is expected to be OK for the current series, Miguel Batista still makes a desperation play for saves until we see Morrow close a game. … Roy Halladay is not said to be suffering any ill effects from a line drive to his temple in his past outing, and he's actually on one of his signature tears (4-1, 2.00 ERA in seven outings). Look for the "Doc" to be in against the troubled offense of Cincinnati (.656 OPS in June, second-worst in majors). … Ted Lilly has had a solid June after falling off the rails a little in late May, but I don't like his matchup. The Orioles sit in a surprising fourth place in the majors for OPS versus southpaws (.800), so the Baltimore bats likely will relish the opportunity to face him. Jay Payton (7-for-16, one home run) and Ramon Hernandez (6-for-12, two home runs) also probably miss facing Lilly in their division (when he was a member of the Blue Jays), and both have a career OPS better than 1.000 against him. … Jorge Campillo still hasn't had an atrociously poor start, but he runs into a Brewers offense that is red-hot (.948 OPS this past week). Considering the Brew Crew also land in the top 10 for OPS versus righties, I'm not recommending Campillo for this contest. … This is not the ideal matchup for Randy Johnson. The Red Sox lead the majors in hitting southpaws (.833 OPS), and players such as Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis have solid, if unspectacular, career numbers against the Big Unit. … Given the Mariners' inability to hit right-handers (.662 OPS, last in majors), there is no reason not to send out John Maine in your fantasy league. … Even in a lousy start (allowing six runs in the first three innings), Aaron Cook settled down in his past outing and lasted seven innings to try to keep the Rockies in the game against the Mets. Easily Colorado's best pitcher this season, Cook should get the benefit of the doubt versus a below-average opponent like Kansas City. … Because Greg Maddux has a 1.64 ERA in eight home starts this season, you'd better use him whenever the Padres play in PETCO Park. Waiver-wire pickups

<table class="answerguys" align="right" border="0" width="325"><tbody><tr><td align="center">

</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">It's Fantasy Football season on ESPN.com! Activate last year's league, create or join a new league today and start your run to fantasy glory.
Sign Up Today!</td></tr></tbody></table> Hitters: Brian Giles hasn't started since Friday because of shoulder and hamstring troubles but may be rested enough to start after getting a few days off. Giles has a solid .293 average and .425 on-base percentage against lefties, such as the Twins' Glen Perkins. … With Cesar Izturis hitting the DL, Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles could be appealing in deeper NL-only leagues. Even after interleague play is done, both Ryan and Miles should get into the lineup, with one of them manning shortstop. … Jarrod Saltalamacchia is now getting his first extended look as the full-time catcher in Texas and should be owned in more than 4 percent of ESPN leagues while Gerald Laird is on the DL. … Jason Kubel will sit because the Twins will have no DH in San Diego. … Jack Hannahan is the likely fill-in at first base for an injured Daric Barton, but with Mark Ellis having sole possession of the leadoff spot lately, Hannahan doesn't offer much to fantasy owners. … Luis Castillo may start again for the Mets, but his quads are still aching. A Castillo with achy quads is useless in fantasy, so until you see him swipe a bag, look elsewhere for your steals. … Raul Chavez maintains his short-term value spike Wednesday if Ryan Doumit is still resting after his concussion. Check the lineup card on Tuesday, though, as Doumit may be back if he stays symptom-free. … Reed Johnson and his .319 average against lefties likely would lead off against Baltimore's Brian Burres if his back is healed enough by then. … Ramon Castro is another option at catcher with Brian Schneider expected to miss some games this week. … Erick Aybar will start as long as Maicer Izturis is limping on his pulled hamstring. Aybar does have five swipes this year. … Jose Vidro is still the likely candidate to sit for the Mariners during interleague play. … Ryan Spilborghs may get the bonus DH at-bats as the Rockies visit Kansas City; though he absolutely rocks lefties (.973 OPS), he doesn't fare too badly against righties either (.848 OPS).

Jeff Curry/US Presswire
Kyle Lohse is still somewhat of an underrated fantasy presence because of his past numbers.

Pitchers: Tim Wakefield and his five straight quality starts make a terrific spot start in most leagues. (He's owned in 8.5 percent of ESPN leagues.) The Diamondbacks not only see the knuckleball on very rare occasions, they also have a lowly .652 OPS in June (worst in the majors). Pick up Wakefield and look for a great outing. … Eric Stults' first start of the year may have been sparkling (six innings, one earned run and a win versus the Reds), but the White Sox are downright scary at the moment. A 1.040 OPS during the previous week is best in the majors, and three of those four games for Chicago have come against lefties like Stults. … It's encouraging to see two straight starts for Luke Hochevar with zero walks surrendered, but the Colorado Rockies have an .875 OPS this past week. There isn't much payoff in testing the rookie right-hander here, but check to see how he fares afterward, because he could be getting close to turning one of his first corners in major league development. … Only someone with a fantasy reputation as bad as Kyle Lohse could go 6-0 in his past seven starts with a 2.09 ERA and still not be owned in 60 percent of ESPN leagues. I know everyone expects to see the bottom give out on this streak sooner than later, but Lohse is pitching to contact and keeping his walks way down. I think he has some juice left to keep this hot stretch going, even against Marcus Thames and the Tigers. … But Lohse has his work cut out for him against the equally hot Armando Galarraga. The rookie is coming off three straight wins, as well as 13 shutout innings in his two most recent starts. I'm not going to suggest which pitcher will get the win in this matchup, but I do think both are well worth starting. … Zach Duke might have looked brilliant against Toronto in his past start, but the Blue Jays are easily the weakest team in the majors against southpaws. Duke will face an altogether different task in the Yankees, so you should avoid succumbing to Duke's siren song. … After his past start (six runs, three earned in 1 2/3 innings), it's not even safe to say Jeff Suppan is safe at home anymore. This start comes on the road, where Suppan has a 5.70 ERA. No, thank you. … Two straight quality starts are not enough to consider Tim Redding for a spot start. The main reason: He faces Ervin Santana on the mound, leaving little hope for a win (not that Redding picks up many anyway, as he hasn't had a decision since May 19). … The Phillies may be third in the league in OPS versus lefties (.802), but they are holding Popsicles lately. That is to say, they have ice-cold bats this past week (.592 OPS). I wouldn't hesitate to use Greg Smith, who has two straight starts with just one earned run allowed in each. … The A's lineup goes from cellar dwellers against lefties to league-average against righties, so Kyle Kendrick won't have a cakewalk outing by any means. Because of lack of offense the Phillies have been generating lately, I don't think I am on board with using Kendrick here. … I know Barry Zito has looked ugly lately, but I think he is a solid deep-league gamble here. He has a 5-3 record with a 2.71 career ERA in nine starts versus Cleveland, and the Indians have a .701 OPS versus southpaws this season (24th in the majors). Besides, his Giants hit lefties well (.771 OPS, 10th in majors) and should support him for his third win. … Super-deep-league endorsement of the day: The Marlins' Ryan Tucker. The rookie righty has a blistering fastball that was clocked at 96 mph in his past outing, but it is said to be faster than that when he digs down deep. He coughed up five runs and lost to Tampa Bay in his second career start on June 13, but he's sandwiched that start with two solid outings (and wins).

BadCo · Jun 25, 2008

The Big Unit has lost all four of his starts this month, the most he's lost consecutively since dropping five straight in 1999. He has a 7.77 ERA and a .324 opponent batting average in June.

Wakefield has had no such luck of late and he's won only once in six starts. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in five consecutive outings, posting a 2.50 ERA while opposing batters have hit .203.

Lohse has been red-hot lately, winning six consecutive starts while posting a 1.95 ERA. He defeated what are widely considered two of baseball's top offenses in his last two outings, holding Boston and Philadelphia to a combined three earned runs and 10 hits in 14 innings.

Galarraga, who has won all three of his interleague starts while posting a 0.95 ERA.
Opponents are hitting .184 against Galarraga (7-2, 3.03) and that would easily lead the majors if he had thrown enough innings to qualify.
His seven wins tie him with Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens for the major league lead among first-year players, and his ERA is second-best behind Cleveland's Aaron Laffey (2.83) among rookies with at least 10 starts.
Galarraga has not given up an earned run in his last two starts - a span of 13 innings - and he's won three straight. The right-hander has won four consecutive decisions overall since losing to Minnesota on May 23

Damon, hitting a major league-best .413 since May 20, is expected to miss another day or two.
Matsui, meanwhile, has played just 24 games in the field due to his injury, and can't be used as a designated hitter because the Yankees are in an NL park.

Melky Cabrera is in center field and Bobby Abreu in right field, but the Yankees were forced to call up Justin Christian from Triple-A to fill out their starting outfield.

Toronto now looks to take advantage of Harang (3-10, 4.33 ERA), who is just 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA in his last seven appearances.
The right-hander was tagged for five runs and 10 hits in five innings of a 7-4 home loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday.

Halladay, who is 17-8 with a 3.00 ERA in 32 lifetime interleague games, has gone 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last eight appearances versus the NL since June 24, 2006

Washington has been awful in the field lately, committing a major league-worst 15 errors since June 15 - a span of nine games

The Angels are a major league-best 26-12 on the road this season, and have won 10 of 11 away from home this month. They've outscored opponents 27-10 through five games on their nine-game road trip
Washington, meanwhile, owns the majors' second-worst home record at 15-25, and has dropped 11 of its last 13 at Nationals Park.
The Nationals have lost seven of eight, getting outscored 54-21.

Shields is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts this month. The right-hander is 0-3 in seven starts since beating the Los Angeles Angels on May 9.
However, Shields pitched very well in two outings against Florida last year, allowing three runs and striking out 17 in 14 innings while going 1-0.

bluebirdsbaby · Jun 25, 2008

BadCo, have a question for you...

I noticed in the section which talks about Halladay, it lists the pitchers who have been most productive with their curveballs. It also says something about "the list of pitchers who have thrown at least 200 curves this year." Do you know of anywhere that I can find this type of sortable information?? I'm looking for this type of info to see a log of what pitches each pitcher throws in a game. I've been looking for this for a few months now... can't find anything.

Hopefully you have some insight... thanks